Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

I wish it was no-one, though agree with the OP that deaths seem to be declining, and also the number compared to those who test positive. The vaccination programme (the only success in the response) seems to be turning it from a potentially fatal illness to an unpleasant one needing time at home in isolation, largely.

@Watapalava

As cases rise hospitalisations may not go up at all

Why people still saying this? We have vaccines!

Almost all hospitalisations and deaths were groups 1-9 who have been vaccinated

Even one dose is significant at preventing severe disease

Did you know only 89- yes only 89 people in England under 40 have died during ENTIRE pandemic (who were not in group 1-9).

That’s crazy low!

So cases may go up but honestly who cares? They’re very unlikely to have any affect at all really which is why Boris and witty have always said it’s not cases but nhs pressure

He today said he’s still planning Julys opening

A lot of people in groups 1-9 were fit and healthy. On top of dying, there are all the NHS and frontline medical/caring staff who now have long covid. It’s not all about deaths.

Yes, vaccines have done an amazing job of getting us out of where we were. We can’t go back. I don’t think we will but let’s not get too far ahead.

Cases aren’t actually rising at all

This. If you look at the government website the 7 day average number of cases over the whole of the UK has been practically flat since mid-April - it's only in a few areas (for now) that it's going up dramatically. And those areas are too small and the rise in cases too recent to see the effect on the number of deaths.

Some mis information on here, deaths and hospitalisations continue to decrease on rolling average, cases are up. But the numbers are still low and it’s not resulting in serious illness.

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

This is a good chart for perspective (England).
Most are seven day averages.
Hospitalisations and deaths still coming down.
Cases pretty static.
Worth taking note of the test positivity rate too. If that was going up it could be worrying, but it's come down again to 16th May.

Strangly in my area cases were steady for ages at around 70s per 100000, once hospitally opened in April was when it went down.

"What’s rising is the % attributed to the Indian variant"

That. Said well.

@Watapalava

Cases aren’t actually rising at all

Cases per day are pretty much flat given the level of opening

What’s rising is the % attributed to the Indian varient

It’s been between 2500-2800 a day for few weeks now and hasn’t risen

Sefton which has Indian varient and was targeted last week has seen significant drop and is on the way down now with no spread to surrounding areas

It's been lower than that per day for a few weeks. It's been below 2500/day really since 19/4. It's now just above that, and rose last week and this.

It is rising, but very slowly. However be aware that it was rising slower than this, and from a lower baseline (close to 1000/day) than this at the end of August.

In the past, first cases rise, then hospitalisations then deaths around 2 weeks later. So you can't look at cases alone. I've been tracking the figures and it really does follow it fairly accurately.
Hopefully the vaccinations will keep hospitalisations and deaths lower than before. It looks likely they will, but it won't prevent them entirely.

We are in a better place now with vaccinations, but it isn't the time to crack out the champagne.

I think the Indian variant is rising into the gap left by the Kent variant dropping so it looks like a plateau, for a little while.

well it was 7deaths yesterday and 9 today...

Weren't cases only expected to rise as restrictions were lifted? It's only whether those case rises developed into an overwhelming of the NHS that it would become an issue, we've been told all along that there will unfortunately be "an acceptable level of deaths from covid"

@GirlCrush

well it was 7deaths yesterday and 9 today...

Early September 2020 levels...

There were days with higher deaths last week

It’s weekly average that gives best impression and it’s still going down

@PrincessNutNuts

I think the Indian variant is rising into the gap left by the Kent variant dropping so it looks like a plateau, for a little while.

You sound very hopeful that it'll rise. Are you OK?

Overall positive tests are rising (genuine rise, I think, as number of tests carried out have fallen a little), and it looks as if Indian variant is increasing more than other strains (some of which are falling)

It'll take a week or so to show if the rise in cases translates into rise on hospitalisations, and a further week for deaths to follow (if they are going to.

Boris is clearly optimistic that, because of vaccination, the rise in hospitalisation will not be as great and that rise in deaths will be lower still, and that we will know enough by the second week in June to decide on the next step relaxation (which he thinks can still happen).

TL:DR - too early to tell if rise in positive tests will lead to major rise in admissions/deaths but trend shouid be showing clearly in 2-3 weeks time

@scaevola

Overall positive tests are rising (genuine rise, I think, as number of tests carried out have fallen a little), and it looks as if Indian variant is increasing more than other strains (some of which are falling)

It'll take a week or so to show if the rise in cases translates into rise on hospitalisations, and a further week for deaths to follow (if they are going to.

Boris is clearly optimistic that, because of vaccination, the rise in hospitalisation will not be as great and that rise in deaths will be lower still, and that we will know enough by the second week in June to decide on the next step relaxation (which he thinks can still happen).

TL:DR - too early to tell if rise in positive tests will lead to major rise in admissions/deaths but trend shouid be showing clearly in 2-3 weeks time

The next Sanger sequencing update after tomorrow's will be the kicker I reckon.

Although SAGE are already saying:

● Incontrovertible evidence that B.1.617.2 is more transmissible may come too late.
● It is possible the outbreak in India is partly the result of higher transmission of B.1.617.2.
● In the face of uncertain evidence the risk of over-reacting seems small compared to the potential benefit of delaying a third wave until more people are vaccinated.

https://assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachmentdata/file/988205/S12399JointUNIversitiessPandemicanddEpidemiologicalResearch.pdf

What, no warwick wave of doom chart?

I am disappointed 😞

I personally know two people now who have had vaccinations but recently tested positive due to travel tests. I would like to know how many positives coming out of routine tests eg positive lft leading to positive pcr with zero symptoms.

@PrincessNutNuts you really need to seek help. Do you spend all day searching for negative covid news? I feel so sorry for you that your life is so consumed with not wanting a pandemic to end.

[quote CottageGardener]@PrincessNutNuts you really need to seek help. Do you spend all day searching for negative covid news? I feel so sorry for you that your life is so consumed with not wanting a pandemic to end.[/quote]
Yep, a genuine case!

I had a lovely evening out in a city with my teenage girls and DH last night. Nobody is going to dent my mood today!

@Temp023 exactly, the majority of people are getting back to normal everyday living. Vaccines are working, this pandemic is on its way out.🎆🎆🎆🎆🎉

The delusion on here is unreal. I guess you do all really listen to Boris. You can denigrate PrincessNutNuts all you like. Granted, her name doesn't help matters... unfortunately she is only passing on information from the scientists who are actually analysing the data that's being collected. So eventually Boris will have to level with you all. I'm sure by that time you will have all realised yourselves, so then you won't be so angry with him. He hates people being angry with him.

Simply put the scientist role is to use their best professional ability to give you the scientific facts as agreed and known at the given time. A politician is (supposedly) someone who is elected by popularity to represent you but more often than not represent their own interests and that may well include pleasing you in a public relations manner to present themselves in a favourable light which can and evidently has included being very selective of scientific facts or indeed dismissing its importance in the grand scheme of things. Personally my judgement always favour the general and agreed best scientifically agreed facts and ignore some of the political viewpoints which of course takes into account other important factors not relating to direct scientific facts. It is a balance of considering all material facts not just scientific data. I am lead by and follow the science when pragmatic and prudent to do so. Politicians have in recent times been proven to be misjudged and have u turns constantly as to question their fitness for purpose. Scientists by comparison (and are definition) are infinitely more reliable and trustworthy.

@Buzzinwithbez

This is a good chart for perspective (England). Most are seven day averages. Hospitalisations and deaths still coming down. Cases pretty static. Worth taking note of the test positivity rate too. If that was going up it could be worrying, but it's come down again to 16th May.

I like your chart, where's it from? Thanks

@scaevola

Overall positive tests are rising (genuine rise, I think, as number of tests carried out have fallen a little), and it looks as if Indian variant is increasing more than other strains (some of which are falling)

It'll take a week or so to show if the rise in cases translates into rise on hospitalisations, and a further week for deaths to follow (if they are going to.

Boris is clearly optimistic that, because of vaccination, the rise in hospitalisation will not be as great and that rise in deaths will be lower still, and that we will know enough by the second week in June to decide on the next step relaxation (which he thinks can still happen).

TL:DR - too early to tell if rise in positive tests will lead to major rise in admissions/deaths but trend shouid be showing clearly in 2-3 weeks time

Exactly this.

Essentially, today's death rates reflect the cases 2-4 weeks ago.

So IF cases rise over the coming few weeks, as seems likely due to opening up from lockdown, then we genuinely won't know about the deaths resulting from those infections (and whether they are lower due to vaccinations) for 2-4 weeks afterwards.