Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

Sorry 2.6%

In the last wave the ratio of cases to admissions was around 9%

@Bordois

Doubling rate is around 16 days currently and the latest ratio of cases to admissions is 2.8%

Hospital admission numbers haven't been updated since 6/07 so I'm not sure that we can calculate the correct ratio

Whitty said 'the slower we take it the fewer the admissions' which suggests that this step might be too much too soon, and that enforcing a slower approach might bring even better benefits

Yes, the ratio is calculated from 6th July admission figures

I don’t get this.CMO and CSA have said the link is weakened but not broken completely

It's a slogan.

It's not true.

Deaths and hospitalisations are inextricably linked to cases

That's why after cases rise so do hospitalisations and deaths.

Every time.

@Delatron

When are we accepting the vaccines are working and the increase in cases is not leading to an increase in deaths?

Surely now?!

Until someone pops on and says ‘ooh give it another few weeks’

Wow.

This from two weeks ago hasn't aged well, has it?

@PrincessNutNuts get a life.

They haven’t increased anywhere near as much as cases.

Yes @PrincessNutNuts considering we are at over 50,000 cases per day then proportionally they are staying low thank goodness. In Jan we had 1,000 deaths per day. We had 41 yesterday.

I would say my statement from two weeks ago stands. The vaccines are helping to prevent deaths as cases go up. Which was expected as we open up.

284 deaths from coronavirus this week. Low but certainly not nothing.

Your right that it’s not nothing but it still only represents about 2% of all weekly deaths.

@PrincessNutNuts surely you can see that your posts read as a smug “told you so”?

Do you read news of increasing deaths and think “yesssss!”?

Nobody has said they are ‘nothing’. Just like all the deaths from other causes every day are not nothing.

But we are not seeing a thousand or even in the the hundreds a day despite a very high level of cases. Some people will always die of Covid from now on. But we are protecting and preventing thousands of deaths with the vaccines. That’s the point! They are working and deaths are staying proportionately low.

Agree with the awful glee smugness.

The government has more or less said they're not currently bothered about the numbers of deaths. I know that sounds fearfully callous, but they're looking at the population as a whole, not the sadness that the death of an individual leaves behind.

The key indicator is the number of hospital admissions - vaccines have weakened the link between case numbers and the number requiring admission. If that holds, then cases can go much higher than they did in the first two waves withiut the NHS buckling.

But they will go higher than they are now (the published figures lag a couple of days behind the publication date for case numbers, and then it's a week or so behind anyhow because of the time it takes to go from unwell to ill enough for hospital)

The government is gambling that the number if admissions will not strain the NHS and work on the backlog can continue. If they've got thus wrong, then NHS gets no respite and we go into winter with staff exhausted again and a backlog that has grown again.

If that holds, then cases can go much higher than they did in the first two waves withiut the NHS buckling.

Hospitals are already cancelling elective work. Let's remember that for patients, surgery feels far from elective when you're in pain and/ or watching your prognosis get worse due to delays.

That’s also due to the fact that the NHS isn’t really fit for purpose and buckles every year even not in a pandemic.

We can’t stay in and out of indefinite lockdowns to ‘protect’ it. We may need a new plan....

This graph shows the divergence between deaths and cases very well IMO