Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

Well I guess by now we have to conclude that means the vaccines are working.

I’m 45 with no health conditions and I’m about to get my second jab on Monday. So apart from those who can’t (and unfortunately will never) get jabbed who is still at risk of this being a serious disease and causing death? Surely not enough people to overwhelm the NHS? Surely all the vulnerable are protected now? Apart from the above.

There will unfortunately always be Covid deaths each year going forward. As there will from many, many other illnesses.

@AlecTrevelyan006

10 deaths reported today - 13 last Tuesday

Given the low numbers, its important to note that although 13 were reported last Tuesday (8th), only 7 actually occured (so far) on that date which is almost a 50% difference in numbers.

11 deaths reported today compared to 17 last Friday

To be fair the seven day rolling average of deaths has increased very slightly from nine last week to ten currently.

In other news, every day approx 1,500 people die in the U.K.

Just bumping up this!

Incase it gets lost in the sea of negativity.

I notice the Zoe app is saying cases are levelling off this week.

When are we accepting the vaccines are working? Delta has been here for a while. Deaths are largely flat still despite cases rising.

How are cases levelling off?

Last week they had a 6 or a 7 in front of them every day. (And one 8)

This week we had two 7s then 9,11, and 10.

The 7 day average doesn't tend to go up when you're levelling off.

Three weeks ago the number of daily cases all began with a 3 or 4.

Next week we'll hit 15, and 20 the week after.

And hospitalisations will follow, and then deaths.

Locally, cases have gone up over 100% in the last 7 days.

Hospital admissions over 200%.

Deaths are lagging still, but as it has only been in the last 2 weeks (since half term) that cases have exploded locally, we will know nothing about the related deaths for another 2 weeks.

6 deaths reported today - 8 last Sunday

@PrincessNutNuts

How are cases levelling off?

Last week they had a 6 or a 7 in front of them every day. (And one 8)

This week we had two 7s then 9,11, and 10.

The 7 day average doesn't tend to go up when you're levelling off.

Three weeks ago the number of daily cases all began with a 3 or 4.

Next week we'll hit 15, and 20 the week after.

And hospitalisations will follow, and then deaths.

The rate of increase is slowing, that's how its leveling off. Rather than being exponential, it's more like the upward slope of a bell.curve.

Apparently (according to another poster), a few weeks back the doubling rate was 4 days, they now say 10days, whereas I did the calculations and as of yesterday it was 16days. Hopefully this trend will continue and in another couple weeks it'll be 25-30 days and then eventually it'll completely flatten and then start dropping, slowly at first and then gathering pace as we reach and pass herd immunity. Remember that as well as vaccination around 10000/day are being taken out of the pool of those that can be infected (along with the 80% if the population that have antibodies from previous infection or the vaccine).

It we were levelling off the seven day average would be dropping.

It's still rising.

yes, the seven day average of death has increased from a really, really small number to a very, very slightly bigger really, really small number.

and unless you think zero covid is a possibility you're going to have accept a certain number of deaths

@PrincessNutNuts

It we were levelling off the seven day average would be dropping.

It's still rising.

No levelling off would mean that the numbers are rising slower. The next stage would be that they have levelled off and stay around the same and then they will start dropping (which is not levelling off). Levelling off is the process of the curve flattening towards level.

You are now misinterpreting basic English to suit your agenda PrincessCarrie

Levelling off does not mean numbers are dropping.
We wouldn’t expect them to be dropping. We’ve just opened up everything.
Are we seeing exponential growth? Are deaths rising?

Everyone keeps saying we’ll see the lag in deaths ‘in a couple of weeks’ been saying that for weeks now.

The signs are there that the vaccines are working. It’s a bit of a race but it’s looking as we’d expect right now I think.

"Levelling off" means "still going up"?

Look at a curve. When it starts to ‘level off’ it is going up but at a slower rate. Then it flattens. So it has ‘levelled off’. Then it decreases.

The upward slope of a bell curve is still exponential, @Whatever9999.

www.itl.nist.gov/div898/handbook/eda/section3/eda3661.htm

EXPONENTIAL

Levelling off means a process of becoming level.

Not that it is level

Placemarking and off to get popcorn 🍿

Right so we have exponential growth now so we?

Do we?

I wouldn't bother wasting your time Del. They will insist they are right until its obvious that they aren't, come out with some lame arse excuse as to why even though they are wrong they aren't actually wrong and then move on to the next load of doomongering bollocks.

If we're really lucky we'll have a new graph of doom plopped in every thread too 🤩

come out with some lame arse excuse

I saw ‘noisy data’ busted out again. I love that one.

They do seem to have retired the Warwick model, thank fuck for that.

'Exponential' is a curve shape, not a synonym for 'out of control'.

Linear growth is a different shape - it would mean, in the Covid context, that a constant amount of cases are added in each period of time. If that constant amount is small, then that's less worrying than if the constant amount is huge.

So start with 2 cases and add 2 per day, linear growth is 2,4,6,8 etc

Exponential growth means that, rather than a constant amount being added in a period, the number of cases is multiplied (often quoted as doubled) in a period.

So start with 2 cases and multiply by 2 per day, exponential growth is 2,4,8,16,32 etc

In the case of exponential growth, the factor that matters is the doubling time. If the doubling time is a year, then although growth is still exponential, it's not that worrying. If it is a day, then growth is exponential and very worrying!

So it is a case where both sides of this are right.

The growth is exponential - that describes the shape of the curve. However, the doubling time is lengthening and thus the rate at which cases are growing is slowing. So the growth can be exponential AND flattening out.