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Original poster

Deaths aren't increasing

367 replies

cripez · 21/05/2021 17:22

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

OP posts:
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13
Delatron · 20/06/2021 21:11

Ha I know @Bordois I should known better than to engage!

@TheKeatingFive funny that, let’s get the Warwick model out again. See how accurate it was...

Allmyarseandpeggymartin · 20/06/2021 21:26

@Delatron Thanks for updating this, really interesting to see where we are now compared to a month ago - good to see the positive impact of the vaccines

Delatron · 20/06/2021 21:40

Yes @Allmyarseandpeggymartin for some reason the doom monger threads get all the attention. Then the good news gets lost!

Hamilbamil · 20/06/2021 22:27

The growth is exponential - that describes the shape of the curve. However, the doubling time is lengthening and thus the rate at which cases are growing is slowing. So the growth can be exponential AND flattening out.

I don't believe that's correct. By definition, exponential growth is growth that maintains the same rate of growth. If the growth rate is reducing, and "flattening out", it isn't exponential growth.

AliceLivesHere · 21/06/2021 13:33

Deaths not increasing.

So different to over a year ago and so different to January.

Vaccines work

Cafeaulait27 · 21/06/2021 16:32

5 today

Delatron · 21/06/2021 17:49

They are staying low. Thankfully.

Delatron · 21/06/2021 18:08

Looked back and this thread was started a month ago. Then people were saying ‘give it a few weeks to see lag etc’

Well it’s been a month now. I think it’s pretty clear the vaccines are working well.

Cafeaulait27 · 22/06/2021 16:10

27 today 😔

AlecTrevelyan006 · 22/06/2021 16:47

Yes that is disappointing - though when numbers are low they can get easily distorted. Hopefully just a blip.

AlecTrevelyan006 · 22/06/2021 16:51

Some context - 25 of those deaths reported by NHS England

13 of them are 80+
6 of them 60-79
5 of the deaths from Bolton.

Delatron · 22/06/2021 16:57

I do think an age breakdown is important.
Sadly we know the vaccines are less effective for the elderly and those with other conditions/ are frail

Not to say those deaths don’t matter but it’s not an indication that the vaccines aren’t working.

Delatron · 22/06/2021 16:58

Media are reporting 90% of the population have antibodies which seems crazy but great if true.

Cafeaulait27 · 23/06/2021 07:46

That’s amazing @Delatron

Hoping the deaths are lower for the rest of the week and beyond. There was good news in the Times this morning about July 19th so I really hope it can happen:

‘According to the Times, all remaining lockdown restrictions, including social distancing, face masks and the guidance to work from home are on track to be lifted on 19 July. The paper says the government has been encouraged by the low number of coronavirus deaths recently. After rules are lifted, the emphasis will be on "personal responsibility", a government source says, and people will be advised to wear masks in certain circumstances.‘

Schulte · 23/06/2021 08:04

@Delatron

Media are reporting 90% of the population have antibodies which seems crazy but great if true.
I thought it was 8 in 10 adults having ‘some level’ of antibodies. Not quite the same but still good.
Delatron · 23/06/2021 08:26

No @Schulte it was updated yesterday to 90% I guess as the vaccination program progresses. I found it hard to believe but it was new news rather than the 8/10 that was reported a few weeks ago.

Delatron · 23/06/2021 08:28

Though to be fair I only saw it reported it one paper so may have got over excited. I guess it increases weekly from the 80% that was reported a few weeks ago so positive anyway.

Cafeaulait27 · 23/06/2021 08:47

I saw 89% in England I think somewhere x

Cafeaulait27 · 23/06/2021 08:48

I really hope the government aren’t just gaslighting us about July 19th.

With June 21st I think they were saying it was all on track until about a week before weren’t they?

But I’m choosing to hang on to this good news this morning!

Delatron · 23/06/2021 08:50

Thanks @Cafeaulait27 that really is good news!

I’m feeling positive this morning!

SexTrainGlue · 23/06/2021 09:13

The figures for both deaths and hospitalisation s are rising, according to the government dashboard. Though the percentages are high, the numbers are mercifully low (especially for deaths). But if the current rate of increase is sustained, they won't remain low. But we still have time to choke off the rises, which is the reasoning behind continuing restrictions for a while linger.

(Don't get me started on the footie, though!)

PrincessNutNuts · 27/06/2021 11:48

@Delatron

Looked back and this thread was started a month ago. Then people were saying ‘give it a few weeks to see lag etc’

Well it’s been a month now. I think it’s pretty clear the vaccines are working well.

I don't think anybody disputes the efficacy of the vaccines. I certainly never have.

I think this might be the week where what I've been talking about starts to become clear to more people.

Wherediditgo · 27/06/2021 11:58

When the deaths are this low still, and we are quoting % of deaths in terms of how many are fully vaccinated, then I think it is even more important to distinguish between ‘dying of’ and ‘dying with’

Does anyone have the excess deaths stats for the period since delta’s inception, and a high rate of vaccinations? So the past month or so?

PrincessNutNuts · 27/06/2021 13:46

@Wherediditgo

When the deaths are this low still, and we are quoting % of deaths in terms of how many are fully vaccinated, then I think it is even more important to distinguish between ‘dying of’ and ‘dying with’

Does anyone have the excess deaths stats for the period since delta’s inception, and a high rate of vaccinations? So the past month or so?

Excess deaths from previous waves tend to create troughs later because as well as dying years or decades too early people have died just a few months earlier than they would have without catching covid.

In a new wave deaths just fill that trough for a while.

In early 2020 the U.K. was in negative excess deaths until mid-March - which hid the mis-categorised covid deaths.

A similar thing happened in August/September 2020. There were no excess deaths for months.

Things are even slower now because of the vaccines so It's too soon to see excess deaths yet.

But I'm sure anyone with common sense can see that most of the children, young people, and people in their twenties, thirties, forties, fifties and sixties who are dying in this wave were definitely not "about to die soon anyway."

Wherediditgo · 27/06/2021 15:07

Princess I was with you until your last sentence. Not sure who you aimed that at but I can assure you, I do have common sense and would not think those propel ‘were just about to die anyway’

I think people may just take all your countless posts a little more seriously if you weren’t so disparaging and condescending to others.

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