Deaths aren't increasing

[cripez]

Please please jump in and correct me on this if I'm being thick, but as a general rule even though cases are rising, deaths aren't.

Surely this is proof of vaccines working and therefore a good thing?

and the week before that 75

deaths are not increasing

I was in hospital overnight in West Yorkshire on Friday. The nurses said there were no covid patients in ICU.

1 death reported today - same as last Monday

Reported today but actually occurred in April 2020!

This has tipped the 7 day average into red which isn't a true reflection of the situation

A colleague's wife is a nurse. She said that they recently had their first covid ICU admission in some time - a man in his 60s who had refused the vaccine.

12 deaths reported today - 13 last Saturday

Hospital admissions have been raising steadily in the last week, from 80 on 30th May to 158 on 9th June.

Yes but the feed back so far is that the hospital admissions are shorter and don't require intensive care.

@AlecTrevelyan006

12 deaths reported today - 13 last Saturday

You know when cases jigged about between 1600-2400 for six weeks for the whole of April and half of May (some people said numbers had plateaued) then they began ticking upwards?

Hospital admissions and deaths are following a similar pattern from what I can see.

If hospital admissions continue to rise then deaths can't be that far behind. Three weeks/a month maybe?

@NannyAndJohn

We also have a new variant which is ~67% more transmissible than the Kent Variant.

Which itself was ~60% more transmissible than Original Covid.

More transmissible doesn't mean more serious to health though. Of course more and more people are vaccinated every day.
Death rate is still very low

@June2021 It means that if you have say, two million people in your population whom the virus can make seriously ill, a more transmissible virus will spread further, faster, and get to more of them more efficiently than original covid or Alpha did.

Except most of the people who are most likely to become seriously ill have been double vaccinated so it should make little difference if a more transmissible variant gets to them faster.

@June2021 Increased transmissibility means more cases, which means more hospitalisations, which means more deaths. Which also means more cases of Long Covid and more chance of a new Variant that is even more transmissible than Delta.

How many times do we have to point this out?

sadly people will continue to die of covid
there will always be variants
we can't eradicate covid

time to open up

Increased transmissibility means more cases, which means more hospitalisations, which means more deaths.

Not necessarily - if the more transmissible strain is milder.

*Increased transmissibility means more cases, which means more hospitalisations, which means more deaths.

Not necessarily - if the more transmissible strain is milder.

Don't viruses do this make it more transmissible but less deadly

But the Delta variant is more transmissible and more than double the risk of hospitalisation.

@AlecTrevelyan006

sadly people will continue to die of covid there will always be variants we can't eradicate covid

time to open up

This! Not sure how anyone can think it will be any different tbh

@AlecTrevelyan006

sadly people will continue to die of covid there will always be variants we can't eradicate covid

time to open up

First 3 sentences are correct For the last one can you please exceed the ability of all our scientists etc at this moment and provide the modelling to guarantee that will work out fine?

They don’t mean it will be fine. More likely that they’ve lost patience and want life to return to normal. Old people and the vulnerable have to die at some point, so pragmatism and all that...

@AlecTrevelyan006 lol but not you eh ?

No one lives forever

Besides which nearly all the old people, including me, have been double jabbed

@bumbleymummy

Except most of the people who are most likely to become seriously ill have been double vaccinated so it should make little difference if a more transmissible variant gets to them faster.

There are 32 million people in the JCVI 9 priority groups. AKA "the vulnerable. I don't mean them.

The two million I mentioned is people for whom the vaccines haven't worked very well, people who are vulnerable but perhaps don't know it so aren't in the JCVI 9, and those who catch covid because Delta reduces the vaccines effectiveness.

And possibly those who have only had one dose, or just had the second when they catch it.

@LemonandGingerTeafor2

*Increased transmissibility means more cases, which means more hospitalisations, which means more deaths.

Not necessarily - if the more transmissible strain is milder.

Don't viruses do this make it more transmissible but less deadly

If you have a couple of million people dotted around the country whom covid can make seriously ill...

Which variant will hospitalise more of them?

The more deadly one?

Or the one that spreads further faster?

10 deaths reported today - 13 last Tuesday