Keep Those Plans on Hold. Social Distancing Probably Won’t End for at Least a Year.

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www.healthline.com/health-news/keep-those-plans-on-hold-social-distancing-probably-wont-end-for-at-least-a-year

Your thoughts? Do you think social distancing will still be here in 2022?

When do you think we can return to some normality to our pre COVID days? There have been reports suggesting air travel might not return to normal until 2023 or 2024.

www.standard.co.uk/escapist/travel/iata-2024-international-air-travel-return-to-normal-a4511346.html

The minute people answer this question they will be accused of scaremongering.

Article was written before all the great vaccine news...

Article is out of date

The second one is from July and much has changed since then.

But really I don’t believe anyone can confidently say what will or won’t happen. There are other ‘experts’ saying things should be relatively ‘normal’ by spring.

If this year has taught me anything it’s that things are unpredictable! So I do tend to hope for the best and prepare for the worst. I don’t believe being all doom and gloom and dismissing any sense of optimism is useful to anyone, but equally things won’t change overnight.

I have prepared myself for a gradual easing of restrictions from next summer, but who knows........

That was written in October. In the first few lines, in bold, it says it depends on how effective the vaccine is and how many people get it. I think things have moved on, given the surprisingly good vaccines on the horizon and what sounds like a plan to offer it to everyone over 18.

Air travel depends on what other countries do with vaccines and restrictions and if people can actually afford it when the economic impact of this really kicks in. I think business travel has probably fundamentally permanently changed now people have finally got their heads round video conferencing. I don’t really care to be honest, it’s environmentally damaging anyway, a bit less of it no bad thing.

I listen to the Sam Harris podcast. He has quite sensible academic guests on. One last week was saying something quite sensible about how people will respond differently - globally rather than locally. Some will be desperate to get out and about as soon as there is a vaccine properly in the system, so bits of recovery from end of 2021/beginning of 2022. But there will be a significant minority who are more cautious, or industries that will need to be more cautious, who won't be feeling ok with being normal for a year to 18 months after that.

So, 2023/2024. He then said it would possibly go properly 'roaring twenties' at that point.

Seemed reasonable to be honest.

@RuleWithAWoodenFoot

I listen to the Sam Harris podcast. He has quite sensible academic guests on. One last week was saying something quite sensible about how people will respond differently - globally rather than locally. Some will be desperate to get out and about as soon as there is a vaccine properly in the system, so bits of recovery from end of 2021/beginning of 2022. But there will be a significant minority who are more cautious, or industries that will need to be more cautious, who won't be feeling ok with being normal for a year to 18 months after that.

So, 2023/2024. He then said it would possibly go properly 'roaring twenties' at that point.

Seemed reasonable to be honest.

You only had to see the scenes at the beaches, people desperate still go go abroad this year, raves and the drinkers huddled together in their masses outside of the pubs this summer.... people are itching for a non restricted life. It won't take that long AT ALL!