Why oh why are some on MN still convinced there will be no vaccine?

[phantomish]

Inspired by a thread last night, ( and I appreciate everyone is in bad form, upset and anxious), someone stated something like "I don't hold out any hope for a vaccine".
Why though? What's your reasons? I work within the health service and we have been told officially the first vaccines are likely to be approved before the end of the year. They are actively making preparations to roll this out, to train up extra staff...
It is happening. Massive world wide effort to produce effective vaccines, and billions upon billions spent on this effort.
Obviously it's not a silver bullet, and there will be trial and error, further effective vaccines later down the line, but to actually come out and state they don't hold out any hope of one being developed?
That's so negative! We really really need more positivity just now

I say this every time because nothing we are learning about immunity fills me with confidence. If natural antibodies do not last then it’s highly unlikely those produced by a vaccine will be any better. In a way I do believe in a vaccine but one that will give about three months immunity so unlikely to be particularly effective in terms of controlling the virus.

I know there are a “few” (I have only come across one practical example”) where the vaccine can provide better protection from natural infection but they are very unusual and I think the idea that we hit on one of these very rare vaccines soon feels very unlikely.

This thread is going to make many more people anxious ... remember these are all opinions not facts !!!!!! My opinion there will be a vaccine ..

@phantomish

Inspired by a thread last night, ( and I appreciate everyone is in bad form, upset and anxious), someone stated something like "I don't hold out any hope for a vaccine". Why though? What's your reasons? I work within the health service and we have been told officially the first vaccines are likely to be approved before the end of the year. They are actively making preparations to roll this out, to train up extra staff... It is happening. Massive world wide effort to produce effective vaccines, and billions upon billions spent on this effort. Obviously it's not a silver bullet, and there will be trial and error, further effective vaccines later down the line, but to actually come out and state they don't hold out any hope of one being developed? That's so negative! We really really need more positivity just now

I believe your comment than others

I think there will be a vaccine, I'm not convinced it can be produced and administered quickly enough, in sufficient number to make a difference.

There’s an article about Kate Bingham - head of vaccines task force - today. She comes across as a bit of a nepotist’s dream, BUT she has said that everyone over the age of 50 will be vaccinated by Easter. Which has made me happy.

Because it's not a fact. We don't know what will happen next week and much less months from now. Putting too much hope in something that might not happen is not something I can do - personally - at this point. It's one day at a time here.

Because life of people on here revel in the misery of it all and love to be doom mongers and can't stand the thought of any positive news. It's been a real eye opener for me.

Everything I have read about immunity says that all antibodies for all infections fade over time, that is a normal response but it does not mean that there is no long lasting immunity conferred. The way the mainstream media has reported this has been disgraceful.

Yes, there will be a vaccine and we will eventually have an annual injection just like flu.

@madmarchmare

Because life of people on here revel in the misery of it all and love to be doom mongers and can't stand the thought of any positive news. It's been a real eye opener for me.

Everything I have read about immunity says that all antibodies for all infections fade over time, that is a normal response but it does not mean that there is no long lasting immunity conferred. The way the mainstream media has reported this has been disgraceful.

This

@Qasd If natural antibodies do not last then it’s highly unlikely those produced by a vaccine will be any better.

vaccines are more successful than natural immunity. Can an adjunct be added to increase efficacy?
Im sure over time that levels dropped so we may eventually be in a situation where we require an annual booster.

Can I ask what makes you think that?

There is one vaccine I have come across (hpv vaccine) that is generally considered better than natural immunity, so while possible it’s rare. Unless you know of others...there could be! But I have only come across one which is why I am pessimistic!

And it’s how short immunity is that worries me, a year yes annual boosters but they seem to be talking months!

I like to think there will be, but I also think that like the flu it will mutate and a vaccine will never be guaranteed for it that year

The common cold research institute worked for over forty years looking for a corona vaccine but closed eventually without having found one. I’m not being alarmist but the blind belief in a vaccine being the cure all is a bit naive I think. I do, however, strongly trust that we will learn to manage the virus and become much better at treating the life-threatening symptoms.

I say this every time because nothing we are learning about immunity fills me with confidence. If natural antibodies do not last then it’s highly unlikely those produced by a vaccine will be any better.

Once again, for everyone at the back: immunity to coronavidae appears to be more about t cells than antibodies.

T cells appear to last just fine into the long run. People who had SARS 17 years ago show a good immune response which appears to be derived from their t cells.

Reinfection cases appear to be very rare. They might occur occasionally but that's the case with most one-time diseases. I had mumps twice. It's not normal to get mumps twice though and the mumps vaccine basically works fine.

The common cold research institute worked for over forty years looking for a corona vaccine but closed eventually without having found one.

Again, for everyone at the back: "Colds" are caused by a bunch of different viruses (and also some bacteria and other things, in some cases). Of course it's very hard to find a vaccine which magically works against a ton of different viruses and some bacteria.

Vaccines against single coronavidae work fine. They have had plenty in the vet. science world and scientist have also developed what appears to be a very good MERS vaccine. They also started developing a SARS vaccine but did not bother to complete it as the virus died out. The current crop of COVID19 vaccines have basically piggybacked on the MERS and SARS vaccine research--that's why it was possible to develop them so quickly.

There are now 321 vaccine candidates, an unprecedented global effort.
mobile.twitter.com/CEPIvaccines/status/1321795182547865600

Biontech CEO - immunity should last over a year, initial efficacy data for Pfizer/Biontech vaccine expected within next 2 weeks.
www.echo-online.de/wirtschaft/wirtschaft-ueberregional/biontech-ceo-sahin-vaccine-effect-could-last-for-more-than-a-year_22515452

@kokeshi123 that's actually a really informative post, thank you. As a layman its quite easy to get lost in what you read, but you make it sound quite hopeful

@kokeshi123

Thank you . I just couldn't be bothered to post and correct all of the shite a lot of people seem to think about vaccines and immunity. There is an excellent chance we will have an effective vaccine soon.

Particularly irritating is the one about our lack of a vaccine for the common cold, as if colds are all caused by the same virus, never mind the massive disparity in funding of and attention paid to developing cold vaccines compared to Covid ones.

We are actually pretty lucky that this pansemic is caused by a Corona virus as they seem to be reasonably stable. Other types of virus can be more tricky to develop vaccines for

As prof Whitty said, medicine has been incredibly successful in learning to deal with and often cure many infectious diseases over the centuries . I see no reason why we won't be able to do it again.

The people on charge have made it clear the first generation of vaccines will not be a silver bullet. In five years or so we might have a vaccine that inhibits transmission, rather than just lessening symptoms. But by then I suspect most of us will have had it anyway.

The big outstanding question that nobody can answer yet is how long natural and vaccine-mediated immunity will last. Most experts think 0.5—3 years.

The common cold research institute worked for over forty years looking for a corona vaccine but closed eventually without having found one.

The 'common cold' is caused by about 200 different viruses, about a quarter of which are coronaviruses. You're never going to find a vaccine which protects against all of these viruses, so it's an entirely different discussion, especially as the 'common cold' is usually a mild illness,

I’m not being alarmist but the blind belief in a vaccine being the cure all is a bit naive I think

Who's got 'blind belief'?

The best scientists in the world are working night and day on this. Many of them are cautiously optimistic of success, possibly in the very near future.

Are these highly trained scientists 'naive', do you think?