Cases increasing but ONS day comes immunity transmission is decreasing

[WearyandBleary]

Can anyone explain the methodology the ONS use to draw their conclusion that community transmission is decreasing? I’ve read some articles but can’t work it out.

They take a random sample. So it is just luck who they pick.
Dp has been invited and we havent been going anywhere so didnt do it as it would be unrepresentative. So depends if they are picking a load of working people/pub goers or people with kids at preschool . Or wfh people.
I expect there is huge variation in what people are comfortable doing so variation is huge. Add in depends on local area...

Community transmission as a term just means there is no clear source of origin of the infection in a newcommunity. Where cases are linked to people identified through track and trace, or are linked to one known infectious event (e.g. Funeral) or outbreak (care home), they don't count as community transmission because it's known how they caught it. If a country gets on top of all the unknown origin, it's all down to effective quarantine.

That’s really helpful- thank you!

Dp has been invited and we havent been going anywhere so didnt do it as it would be unrepresentative

No, he should have done it! That’s the point of random sampling.

@Keepdistance

They take a random sample. So it is just luck who they pick. Dp has been invited and we havent been going anywhere so didnt do it as it would be unrepresentative. So depends if they are picking a load of working people/pub goers or people with kids at preschool . Or wfh people. I expect there is huge variation in what people are comfortable doing so variation is huge. Add in depends on local area...

I think he is confused about what a random sample is for. The whole point is that they get representation across tge community as a whole so that includes people who have not been going anywhere.