Why is govt policy not to give us all early enough treatment?

[Lumene]

“Early clinical management of symptoms, to which Boris Johnson had access, means that outcomes are generally better, but that requires testing at an early stage of the disease.”

amp.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2020/apr/22/flattening-curve-new-zealand-coronavirus?__twitter_impression=true

Especially concerning when you see that a third of all those admitted to UK hospitals with Covid don’t survive (reported in the Guardian yesterday).

There was a thread on here not long ago about waiting til you have ‘blue lips’ before admission.

Yep and this was one of the reasons Germany’s death rate is lower. They treat earlier.

We now know more about this virus. It’s unpredictable and people can go downhill quite quickly (usually in the second week). We have heard people have been dying at home as they are ‘not ill enough’ to be admitted.

Yet we have spare capacity.

It’s like we never learn any lessons by watching other countries or use our the science that is coming out about this virus. I think they’ve changed the criteria slightly now to admit a bit earlier but I still worry that it’s not enough. We are so slow to react here and change policies that is caused many more deaths than there should be.

It ought to be much higher.
China
20% hospitalised. 5% icu 2.5% died
So 1/8 hospitalised dying not 1/3
So they either dont hospitalise to give o2 or have very poor rates for icu recovery.
We dont seem to be trying with antivirals except a couple in a study.
It is not surprising really that without oxygen

• More peoplw are dropping down at home

More people progress to severe and death.

I think the outbreak here is much bigger than germany though so we need to see the % with antibodies really.
They need to look at more home trwatment with oxgen and monitoring like germany corona taxis.
Tbh it is a lot like when you are in labour the nhs are happy for you to stay at home indefinitely and give birth on the floor or in a hospital room alone.

So that they can pat themselves on the back because the NHS is coping.

The death toll? No, don't look at that - the NHS is coping, so we're doing a good job.

This distraction technique is actually working as well. They've got a good number of Mumsnetters willing to write off 1000+ deaths per day, because the NHS can handle that and "the purpose of lockdown is to make sure the NHS can cope"

I am starting to suspect these answers are right.

Would like to hear more on this from the govt and be reassured they have shifted their aim to treat early for maximum survival

Look at the figures in countries where they are testing, contact tracing, quarantining and treating/ admitting early. The answer is pretty obvious.
The UK started too late and did too little. The nhs/ carers are working flat out, but the administrative incompetence is outrageous.
Basic common sense would indicate that discharging infectious patients back into care homes is stupid and negligent.

Yes if the NHS was at breaking point that would maybe explain the high death rate. But many hospitals are half empty. And yet we still have a high death rate...

I think that when there is an inquiry this will be one of the significant reasons cited for our high death toll.
I also think it will become well known in the history books that the government did it to try and create the impression that the NHS could cope.

I think they over-panicked and thought it was a necessary part of the strategy to avoid the NHS being overwhelmed. I think the logic was flawed though as there isn't a disease or illness I can think of where the earlier the patient gets medical intervention the better the outcome. The key to beating CV-19, as has been proven by some other countries, is early identification and treatment. Hopefully they they will get us better positioned in advance of the dreaded second wave.

Completely agree. I wish the media would bring this up as a question in the daily briefing!

Me too @Delatron, maybe we can tweet one of briefing journalists to put significantly on radar?

It is also my main bugbear. The government brags about hosptial spaces as if it is a good thing. Whilst the hospital death rate is high which to me suggests that maybe they are getting to hospital too late. I believe in France the death rate in hospital is 12 percent, and it has been reported it is 30 percent in the uk.
France has around 14,000 hospital deaths ( are are furthur along)
The uk has 22,000 i believe. This is a big difference.
Yes someone tweet please.
And the care home figures are not correct!

I agree. I want the journalists to ask this question. Why do we have so much capacity in hospitals, this isnt a good thing, they should be full up treating more people earlier on. Ive ordered an oximeter after reading the NYT article last week.

And of course all the deaths that have occurred through other things being postponed, and people not wanting to go to hosptial. This is also starting to come to light.

@user721, do you have a link to the New York times article?

www.nytimes.com/2020/04/20/opinion/sunday/coronavirus-testing-pneumonia.html

I do feel that the govt press conferences should be saying more about covid illness itself. All the other issues are a consequence of it. I want more info about the symptons of the illness are, how do you look after yourself if you get it, when should you phone 111/999. Does vit d help at any stage. Do breathing exercises help? Sleeping on your front? Should obese people go on a diet asap. Should couch potatoes start exercising more? Should we all buy oximeters? What criteria do we get admitted to hospital? Surely they must have more scientific facts than they did 2 months ago.

Are there the staff to admit more people to hospital? Isn't that the main reason the Nightingales are barely being used?

In fairness- treat what? Not meaning to be glib. There is no 'treatment, supportive measures only. If you require oxygen, you should be in hospital. If you don't, you shouldn't. There isn't a treatment per say, hence why hospitalisation is o my when you have respiratory distress- early oxygenation won't stop a decline if that's what your disease progress will cause. Look at the at home recoveries- huge. Because those were not acute so required nothing except time.

Well yes intervention and monitoring to stop people worsening and if they take a turn for the worse their stats are being monitored so correct action can be taken quickly , that may be oxygen, antibiotics etc. Basically whatever France and Germany have been doing.

In fairness- treat what?

With oxygen, other treatment for underlying infections, support to help the body fight off the virus.

As opposed to being told to only ring a busy system back if your lips are turning blue, say.

The German expert is arguing for early testing so early support can be given. Drs are seeing people go downhill rapidly, and discovering shockingly low oxygen levels with little outward warning.

Are there the staff to admit more people to hospital? Isn't that the main reason the Nightingales are barely being used?

Good question. They say they have enough beds. What about staff?

Yes earlier support; oxygen, monitoring, they may have a secondary infection that needs treating. Pneumonia is a complication and that may need quite strong IV antibiotics.

We can’t just ignore what other countries are doing successfully and shrug our shoulders and accept a 33% death rate in hospitals.

Someone dealing with this illness at home can't monitor their oxygen levels, therefore would have no idea what constitutes being dangerously low until it's too late. Levels can drop rapidly and result in death. If they were admitted and monitored earlier more people would survive. Clearly hospitals have the staff and the space to accomplish this if we're to believe that many are half empty. And we're not talking ICU just an admission for monitoring and oxygen.

The Covid team Doctors are calling people daily at home to monitor severity of symptoms, there is a number to call if you get worse that bypasses 111 and obviously 999 if urgent.
If DH had worsened overnight, he would have been admitted and he was/ is far from the ‘blue lips and unable to speak’ trope that’s been widely shared.

I think that this mass testing may well cause another spike in infections - being told you can come straight out of isolation if negative is insane when there is a 30% false neg rate.
The covid team and GP have told us to stick to 14 days regardless of our negative results.