Will ChickenPox and other viruses die out under lockdown?

[RandomlyChosenName]

Just wondering- will the lockdown will affect other viruses?
How can chicken pox etc still transmit? Will they die out? Chicken Pox incubation is about 2 weeks...

Sorry- I’m not a scientist.

My daughter got it on the last day of school and other kids in her class have got it up to 2 1/2 weeks later but i guess it will die down over the next few weeks when normally it would be peak season for it.

Key workers children are still in school so no.

I bet nits are worried!

Nope, but it may lead to older kids and teenagers getting it instead of when they are 6-7 years old, more impact on important exams etc

There are very few key worker children in schools though, so the amount of children who haven’t had CP and are key worker children must be extremely low and the chance of them coming into contact with another infectious child must be very low too.

What about other diseases caused by viruses like Measles then? The chances of anyone having and being able to pass that one must be so vanishingly small - even more than chickenpox because of the vaccine...?

It won't die out. The flu we have today comes from the 1918 flue pandemic. It is thought covid 19 will become seasonal too. With any luck it will mutate to a less virulant from like the flu did.

My MMR-vaccinated 20-year-old managed to catch mumps!

My 3 year old got chicken pox one week into lockdown, but was quite expecting it as he had been exposed to it at the childminder’s a couple of weeks before.

No, because there is a reservoir of chicken pox virus in older people. If they develop shingles (the likelihood of which is increased by stress) then they can infect anyone who has not already had chicken pox.

OTOH maybe it will break the current increasing transmission of measles and mumps (which my MMRd 20yo also caught at university). And then perhaps the fear of pandemic will influence parents to immunise their children! My 20yo survived mumps, but will have to live the rest of their life with the damage it caused them.

Things like measles are airborne. You only need one person walking through a supermarket incubating measles, and anyone not immune who walks through there for the next few hours has a high chance of becoming infected. Ditto chickenpox and many other childhood diseases, although none of them are quite as infectious as measles. Plus, key workers' kids.

It's possible that vaccination rates will go up as a result of the fear created by the pandemic, although there is also concern that vaccination rates will fall due to parents avoiding hospitals and general chaos.

Worldwide, resurgences of childhood diseases are fully expected because this usually happens in poor countries whenever you have an outbreak of something new. In the wake of the Ebola outbreak a couple of years ago, I believe that the additional deaths from measles which were attributed to interrupted vaccination programs, are believed to be about the same as the number who died from Ebola itself. SO there will be cases coming in from other countries in any case.

World didn't shut down in 1918 like we have this time, though.

There will be a lot less norovirus & HF&M disease spreading, that kind of thing, right now.

I don't think viruses will die out because too many people aren't really following the rules.

Shingles won't die out because of the lockdown. It is caused by the Varicella-Zosta virus, the same one that causes Chickenpox. Once you have Chickenpox it lies dormant within your spine and you can then re-infect yourself, particularly when you are under stress. It is highly likely that there will be more people with Shingles as a result of the stress of restrictions.

@Dilbertian

If they develop shingles (the likelihood of which is increased by stress) then they can infect anyone who has not already had chicken pox.
You can catch only catch chickenpox from someone with shingles through contact with their secretions or their skin rash though. If you practice good hygiene it isn't a problem is it?

YeOldeTrout perhaps not the same degree but they did use social distancing.

My MMR-vaccinated 20-year-old managed to catch mumps!

So did I (aged 35) and it was horrible! Caught it from DS who had had the first MMR jab but not the second yet.

Oh interesting! My child has had both jabs but thinks there’s a milder strain around that wasn’t covered by MMR.

I was told that my immunity from the vaccine had probably worn off, as they only last so long. Or perhaps it never worked for me in the first place and I was just lucky up til then.