Behavioural science and herd immunity-I had never heard of these terms before this week

[fedup21]

Now the government are betting our lives on them?!

How has Italy and china’s herd immunity worked for them?

There is no evidence around herd immunity. There's no evidence for anything yet as this is completely new.
Yes, we may be taking a scientific approach, but behavioural science isn't the most appropriate science here. I say this as a psychology graduate and psychology teacher. We know sweet fa about pandemics. I'm deeply disturbed by the UKs approach.

Herd immunity is a concept that has been around for ages. It’s usually used in the context of discussing vaccines, because people who can’t be vaccinated (because of allergies or immunosupression etc) rely on a sufficient proportion of the population having been vaccinated to prevent the spread of illnesses to them. The same concept is being applied here - if enough healthy people get the virus, recover and are immune, it should help prevent it spreading in future if it arises again. That means the people who are most vulnerable are much less likely to come into contact with it.

@rhubarbpeony

How does that work then in cases like this where there is no vaccine?

Generally, once you have had a virus you are immune to getting it again because your body knows which antibodies to produce to fight the virus.

The reason people get cold and flu etc more than once is because there are various strains of those illnesses, all requiring different antibodies. We don’t know for certain that it will work with Coronavirus, or how many strains there are, but if there is one predominant strain it’s very likely that once a person has has it they will be immune to getting it again.

This is how vaccines work too - you are injected with certain molecules from the disease pathogen, and your body produces antibodies to tackle them. That means that if in future you are exposed to the same pathogen, your body already knows how to produce the correct antibodies to deal with it.

With vaccination you give a large % of the population a version of the disease and they develop anti bodies.

In this case they say a large % will actually have the virus and they hope will develop antibodies. It is an extreme form of vaccination. But it relies on over 60% of the population actually catching the disease, recovering from it and developing antibodies to it.

Given there appear to be 2 strains going round not clear if catching the milder version will protect you from the more extreme version.

Behavioural science is fascinating - looking at human psychology to change the way people behave.

So many things to it - 98% of people survive this (sounds better than 2% die)

Making the behaviour you want to happen the default rather than something people have to think about (opting out of organ donation)

Keeping messages simple (Take back control, get Brexit done)

All nudge theory, and looking at the how humans behave - we basically don't think too much about decisions and can be prompted to think certain ways.

But it doesn’t seem to have worked in China or Italy?

What do you mean it hasn't worked? People have to catch it and recover developing the correct antibodies to protect the population against a future outbreak its too earlier to know whether herd immunity has worked yet.

Also the reported numbers in China have decreased. It takes time for the lock down or behavioural science to work as the incubation period is two weeks and people already infected before the quarantine etc were put in place are still to show symptoms.

So it’s a case of letting it run through the population and killing hundreds if not thousands and then hoping that immunity works for the rest?

Is that not what the WHO has just warned heavily against doing, with their Do not just let this fire burn statement?

Yep, but out Government knows best.

Basically Boris Johnson wants to justify doing nothing. Enter "herd immunity".

Herd immunity is usually applied to vaccines. Wanting a whole population to catch something deadly to develop herd immunity strikes me as irresponsibly to the point of mass murder.

Behaviours science is a lot more than just nudge theory.

Behavioural!

The benefit of herd immunity is it prevents us from being in the same situation next year. We can’t lock down for two months every winter ad infinitum. A vaccine is in development but not likely to be available before next winter. A bit of herd immunity won’t go amiss this time next year.

It seems to me that Boris wants to do nothing and just hope that everyone else makes their own decisions, eg sporting events deciding to cancel large gatherings, the Royals deciding to stop going out and about etc, then he can’t be blamed.

Both those terms have been in common parlance my whole life, they’re not new concepts.

I mean, look. It’s here, and there’s currently no vaccine, cure or immunity to it. Stopping it isn’t an option.

So then the discussion is about how to get through it with the least impact possible. Some countries are locking things down, we are instead trying the approach of slowing transmission down a bit so that hospitals don’t have the sudden onslaught that Chinese and Italians hospitals have had to deal with.

Will it work? I don’t know tbh. Personally I don’t think we’re doing enough, but I also know that the people they have advising the government are respected in their fields and know much more than me.

Behaviours science is a lot more than just nudge theory

I know - it's a fascinating area and the way people think and behave is a very interesting discussion.

I thought carefully about my response there.

It seems to me that Boris wants to do nothing and just hope that everyone else makes their own decisions

Very possible - as long as he isn’t advising schools to close etc he can avoid any suggestion that the government should be offering financial assistance to the people who will really suffer if they do.