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Conflict in the Middle East

(Lack of) US Iran Peace Agreement Part 5

36 replies

OnePeppyFatball · 14/09/2026 10:37

Part 5

OP posts:
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OnePeppyFatball · 14/09/2026 10:55

Looks like the crazy maths continues. From the WP:

““We’ve been averaging 30 ships a night” through the Persian Gulf chokepoint, Trump said on Aug. 31. While he did not specify a time frame, or whether all 30 were oil tankers, that quantity could amount to more than 60 million barrels. (Very large crude carriers, the type that commonly transit the Strait of Hormuz, can carry more than* *2 million barrels.)
The same day, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent offered a more modest wartime high of more than 17 million barrels of oil over a 24-hour period. Three days later, Vice President JD Vance told reporters at a White House briefing that “we got about 15 million barrels out of the Strait of Hormuz just yesterday, despite the fact that the Iranians … continue to shoot” at the tankers.”

“Commercial shipping* *trackers, while skeptical, say it is possible that 15 or even 18 million barrels of oil might have transited the strait in one night at some point, although none has reported a figure that high.
“Plenty of days might be over 11 or 12 million, but then the next day will be 4 or 3 million,” said Brett Erickson, managing principal of Obsidian Risk Advisors. “You need to be looking at rolling averages. It’s been consistently at 6.5 to 7 over a month. It’s getting closer toward eight now, but it needs to be sustained.”
In data released Saturday, the maritime intelligence agency TankerTrackers reported a 60-day average at 7.85 million barrels a day.”

Excerpt From
“Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. But how much oil is really going through?”
Karen DeYoung
The Washington Post
https://apple.news/ANbjh0I2BSTSoFB49uYN52Q
This material may be protected by copyright.

Trump says the Strait of Hormuz is open. But how much oil is really going through? — The Washington Post

The question of how many ships are leaving the Persian Gulf is the latest rhetorical battleground in the Iran war.

https://apple.news/ANbjh0I2BSTSoFB49uYN52Q

OP posts:
BelleHathor · 14/09/2026 11:54

Thank you, apt thread title too!

Newbutoldfather · 14/09/2026 18:30

It’s kind of shaping up to be the perfect storm for Trump, and just ahead of the mid terms.

WTI futures >$100/barrel, some of the crack spreads (oil, not drugs!) at record levels, and the 10 year t note touching 5% earlier today.

And, to add the icing on the cake, controversy over AI, which is about the only thing holding the stock market up.

(And Canada cosying up to the EU, though I think that is performative).

He either needs to sue for peace or go all in in the Middle East. The status quo will just cause oil (and chips) to explode in price.

OnePeppyFatball · 14/09/2026 18:56

The Telegraph:

“The crisis in the Gulf is deepening despite Donald Trump’s increasingly fretful efforts to end it. Iran continues to resist US attacks on its oil and gas infrastructure even though they are clearly wrecking its economy. Now the Houthis – a proxy of Tehran – have launched a lightning offensive against Yemeni government positions, seizing the country’s entire Red Sea coast. This follows the breakdown of a ceasefire with Saudi Arabia.
Houthi forces launched several attacks against Saudi Arabian oil infrastructure and captured the strategic island of Perim on Sunday. They now have control over the Bab-el-Mandeb strait, which separates the Arabian Peninsula from the Horn of Africa and is a vital lane for international shipping and global oil supplies.
Their offensive was supported by drones launched from Iraq by Iran-aligned militias, damaging the East-West oil pipeline which Saudi authorities subsequently shut down. It normally carries millions of barrels of oil a day. Unless it is reopened soon, Saudi traders fear running out of oil stocks for export within days. ”
“While the Houthis say they will only target Saudi shipping in the Red Sea, other flagged vessels are unlikely to rely on such assurances, given the Houthi attacks on traffic allegedly linked to Israel between 2023 and 2025. This will force shipping to use longer routes around the Cape of Good Hope, inflating the prices of goods.
The Houthi assault pushed up oil prices above $108 a barrel for a time and gas rose by five per cent to its highest level since December 2022. The markets were further rattled by the postponement of a planned meeting between the Gulf states and Iran to discuss creating a temporary shipping lane through the Strait of Hormuz, through which a fifth of the world’s oil and gas supply normally passes.
The seriousness of this development to the regional and global economy should not be underestimated. Until now, Saudi Arabia had been relied upon to keep the Houthis in check and has conducted hundreds of air strikes on rebel positions without dislodging its fighters”
“Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman discussed these developments with US Central Command chief Admiral Brad Cooper in Jeddah yesterday following a request for US help to fight the Houthis.
Given the mess caused by his ill-starred war on Iran, President Trump is said to be reluctant to help the Saudis and does not believe the current upsurge in violence affects US interests. On his trip to Ireland, he said the Houthis had let Washington know they are only focused on Saudi Arabia. “I can say everything’s going to work out fine and dandy. It’s going to be great,” he said. But the situation could rapidly get out of hand, with Israel stepping up the readiness of its naval forces.
Ahead of the midterm elections in America, the potential impact on the US economy might force Mr Trump’s hand once more.”

Excerpt From
“Opinion: The Red Sea route is in peril once again”
Telegraph View
The Telegraph
https://apple.news/AFBNVRVejSGmycTOToexgIw
This material may be protected by copyright.

Houthis capture islands in key shipping strait — The Telegraph

Iran-backed rebels bear down on oil chokepoint after seizing control of Yemen’s entire Red Sea coast

https://apple.news/PwHAfDwQIjSZyiTAL-WFatQ

OP posts:
trumpredcard · 14/09/2026 19:26

While we waited for official news of Trump's response to Saudi's call for help against the Houthis, this happened in Poland.

"To make it clear what I said in Kyiv. That in the event of Russian aggression against NATO, thanks to air superiority, the air force of NATO's European part would be able to, even without US involvement, destroy half of Russia's refineries faster than Ukraine. I still believe that."
(my bold)
https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/2099428314792309099?s=20

Trump will be happy to hear that Europe won't be taking advantage of the US in future. I'm not saying it will happen, but he also won't be happy if Nato is responsible for Russian diesel supplies drying up.

Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 profile picture

Radosław Sikorski 🇵🇱🇪🇺 (@sikorskiradek) on X

Żeby było jasne co powiedziałem w Kijowie. Że w wypadku rosyjskiej agresji na NATO, dzięki przewadze w powietrzu, lotnictwo europejskiej części NATO byłoby w stanie, nawet bez udziału USA, zniszczyć połowę rosyjskich rafinerii szybciej niż Ukraina. Na...

https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/2099428314792309099?s=20

RedTagAlan · Yesterday 05:35

trumpredcard · 14/09/2026 19:26

While we waited for official news of Trump's response to Saudi's call for help against the Houthis, this happened in Poland.

"To make it clear what I said in Kyiv. That in the event of Russian aggression against NATO, thanks to air superiority, the air force of NATO's European part would be able to, even without US involvement, destroy half of Russia's refineries faster than Ukraine. I still believe that."
(my bold)
https://x.com/sikorskiradek/status/2099428314792309099?s=20

Trump will be happy to hear that Europe won't be taking advantage of the US in future. I'm not saying it will happen, but he also won't be happy if Nato is responsible for Russian diesel supplies drying up.

A slight tangent maybe, but I think relevant.

Trump has been ordering the oil companies to build more refining capacity in the US. But the industry is pushing back, because they are looking at long term profits. Trump is trying to do a communist style command economy, but he is trying to do it with a system that is ideologically designed to be capitalist.

To add a little to what @Newbutoldfather posted above re the perfect storm, there is another factor. US refineries are working at max capacity and are deferring essential scheduled maintenance. They can't shut down a facility to do essential work, because that reduces supply, and price goes up. Then the wrath of Trump will land upon them. The USA does not have enough refining capacity.

Trump is running things into the ground. From US carriers, to missile supply chains, all the way to the industrial plant that produces diesel. It will maybe start to collapse. He is "stressing" it to breaking point.

Compare that to China. Where all this is controlled by the state, and the state insists that a resilience is built in. While the profit drive is still there, the State can, and does override that in the name of said resilience and national security.

And the thing with China, is that it has been preparing to invade Taiwan for decades. Much like Iran has been preparing for war. But in the case of China preparing for Taiwan, it just so happens that the preparation they have been doing, slots near perfect into them being prepared for this conflict.

On refineries, China still has the Third front doctrine of Mao. Have lots of smaller ones scattered all over the place instead of a few massive ones. So if some are hit in a war, there is still capacity left. Unlike the capitalist system where centralization and amalgamation is good for profit, and profit is King.

Trump is trying to do things with a system, that the system was not ideologically designed to do.

RedTagAlan · Yesterday 06:23

Re my above post. I want to add something I forgot. Green energy.

Is China putting so much into green because it cares about climate change.? Maybe. And yes, to an extent.

But it just so happens that green also contributes to reducing reliance on imported energy. And when that factor is added in, things start to look a bit different. It takes a lot of the cost aspect out. Because while in the west the chant is often " Green is too expensive", in China, every solar panel, wind turbine or hydro scheme, means less oil or coal needs to be imported. So covering a roof of a factory with solar panels does not need to make economic sense for that factory. It just needs to fit with the overall plan, that is less reliance on imported energy.

Compare that to Trump. He is so anti green they could name a weedkiller after him ( Agent Orange ? ). And his "drill baby drill" doctrine adds no resilience. Indeed, it just overexposes the US to international oil prices than it needs to be.

Trumps policies, Trumpism, actually battle against each other. And I think we are seeing that in the headlines today re AI. He will do or say anything if it makes him a buck. He has no coherent thought out plan. He can't see beyond the end of his ever growing Pinnochio nose.

Twiglets1 · Yesterday 06:51

US imposes fresh sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank over alleged Iran ties

The United States imposed new sanctions on Russia's VTB Bank Monday, accusing the lender of helping Iran evade Western sanctions and warning that foreign institutions that continue doing business with Russia's second-largest bank could face additional penalties.

The Treasury said in a statement that state-controlled VTB was now "among the most comprehensively sanctioned financial institutions in the world." The Iran-related penalties would increase the risk of secondary sanctions against foreign institutions that continue to do business with VTB, the Treasury added.

"Under Operation Economic Outcast, Treasury will continue to target and disrupt those who provide material, technological, or financial support that allows the Iranian regime to sustain its terrorist enterprise,” Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent said in the statement.

"Treasury will not tolerate any support to the regime and will continue to identify, expose, and isolate Iran’s enablers," it quoted him as saying.

The Treasury said that over the past three years, VTB has opened bank offices in Iran to expand trade between Russia and Iran and formalize closer bilateral financial coordination.

It said that VTB has established correspondent banking relationships with sanctioned Iranian financial institutions, established a settlement system for Iranian rials and Russian roubles and has sought to move billions of dollars in frozen Iranian assets.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/us-imposes-iran-related-sanctions-russias-vtb-2026-09-14/

Twiglets1 · Yesterday 07:06

WSJ also reports the above story

The new sanctions on VTB are a bid to pressure international partners to cut off dealings with it, according to people familiar with the matter. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent has repeatedly threatened secondary sanctions against foreign companies that help Iran to evade U.S. economic restrictions.

https://www.wsj.com/finance/regulation/u-s-sanctions-russian-bank-in-latest-target-for-campaign-against-iran-080a1422

OnePeppyFatball · Yesterday 07:56

I think we have heard this before.
Iran says it won't negotiate until its conditions are met
The secretary of Iran's Supreme National Security Council said that it won't negotiate "until Iran's conditions are met," according to a statement published by Iranian state media.
"The equations regarding oil and the Straits have changed," the statement continued.
The statement comes after President Donald Trump said Monday that Iran "wants to make a deal, quickly and badly" and that the U.S. is "open" to the "concept" of negotiating.”

Excerpt From
“Iran live updates: Trump says US 'open' to 'concept' of negotiating deal with Iran”
David Brennan, Meredith Deliso
ABC News
https://apple.news/A6QYd6WXUQNCodG7zQSlhMg
This material may be protected by copyright.

Trump says US 'open' to 'concept' of negotiating deal with Iran

https://abcnews.com/International/live-updates/iran-live-updates-oil-prices-rise-after-strikes/?id=136415261&entryId=136425477

OP posts:
trumpredcard · Yesterday 11:26

I have serious issues with the 'both sides' arguments because both sides don't automatically have equal value and also because it's often not an either/or choice. But it's also interesting to look at what the other side thinks, as in 'know your enemy'.
Here's one pro-Trump, hardcore MAGA view of the conflict in the ME. Just think, this X account has almost 66,000 followers!

President Trump won’t tell you this, so I will. Get out and vote in November America will be GREAT!

This war is not just about Iran. It is about who controls oil for the next decade. As the Iran fight drags on, OPEC is getting squeezed. Saudi output just hit its lowest level since 1990. Iran is blockaded. Gulf barrels cannot move the old way.
Meanwhile U.S. production and the rest of the Western Hemisphere - Canada, Brazil, Guyana, Argentina - are coming online fast. Asia is already buying more American and Latin American crude.
Entire countries and industries cannot run on UNRELIABLE supply.
America either under-writes and provides the security thereby making the rules or the squeeze still goes on. That is how you break dependence on Middle East oil and gas.
Here is the timeline in plain English:
1) The war starts. Iran hits U.S. bases across the Gulf hard - hangars, fuel, radar, barracks. Washington is not rushing to rebuild the old base system. The message: no more automatic American umbrella until new security deals are in place.
2) Iran gets boxed in. Ports are blockaded. Oil exports dry up. Other shipping still moves because the U.S. Navy is escorting tankers through Hormuz. Iran is starved. Trade is not.
3) Saudi Arabia tries the backup route: pipelines west to the Red Sea, then out through Bab el-Mandeb - the “Gate of Tears.” The Houthis just seized Mocha and Perim Island to choke that route. Saudi asked for U.S. strikes. President Trump said no. Intelligence, yes. Another American war front, no. Media panic: “The U.S. cannot afford a second front.”
4) Then you heard President Trump say the Iran war ends after the midterms.

That is the signal. He is telling OPEC, Iran, and the rest of the bloc: I will take the political heat until November. High prices now. Pain at the pump now. I am not opening a Yemen war to save Saudi’s backup lane. I am waiting you out while American and Western Hemisphere barrels replace yours.

If that works, the U.S. does not just win a war. It sits on top of the oil trade for years. This is next level geopolitics unraveling right before our eyes.

^https://x.com/aj_inapi/status/2099453116395717098?s=20^

Needless to say, the agreeing comments to this 'insightful analysis' and Trump's 4D chess play, leave me speechless at the quality of American education. Americans need to get back to the original meaning of "woke" and apply it to Trumpian politics.

AJ Inapi (Allan) (@aj_inapi) on X

President Trump won’t tell you this, so I will. Get out and vote in November America will be GREAT! This war is not just about Iran. It is about who controls oil for the next decade. As the Iran fight drags on, OPEC is getting squeezed. Saudi output...

https://x.com/aj_inapi/status/2099453116395717098?s=20

Newbutoldfather · Yesterday 14:52

As I said in my previous post, this is getting serious now.

There just really isn’t that much supply of hydrocarbons around. Strategic reserves have already been draw down heavily and need replenishing, if anything, and there isn’t nearly as much oil coming out of the Middle East as necessary.

Simultaneously, Ukraine and Russia continue to batter one another’s refineries, pressuring the crack spread.

I don’t see talk of a lot of oil coming out of Venezuela any time soon as realistic.

I think that, if anything, this is very much being underplayed by governments and the media. Europe should actually be suffering the most, but I just don’t hear much about it.

Where do we go from here? We can have cheap oil courtesy of allowing Iran a massive say in Middle Eastern politics, or we can go for a much broader and nastier war in order to finally defeat Iran and bring its proxies to heel. I don’t see many compromises here.

www.wsj.com/business/energy-oil/oil-executives-say-the-great-fuel-crisis-is-here-b6b32030?st=bSKcwu&reflink=article_copyURL_share

trumpredcard · Yesterday 16:22

More Vz oil soon is more realistic than you think as the infrastructure is there to refine in several Caribbean countries and before Trump, it was exporting to Cuba, China etc. Admittedly, there will be work needed on maximising output in operations, bringing back abandoned wells and drilling new wells.

Newbutoldfather · Yesterday 16:31

@trumpredcard ,

I asked AI to put Venezuela in context of the global shortage and this is what it came up with. It isn’t that significant (as I thought):

‘In the context of the severe 2026 global oil shortage, Venezuela’s immediate contributions will offer modest, localized relief but will not fix the global deficit. 1, 2]
The global oil market is currently grappling with a massive 5.7 million barrels per day (bpd) supply gap, primarily driven by intense Middle East shipping blockades at the Strait of Hormuz and ongoing disruptions to Russian energy infrastructure. 1, 2, 3]
Venezuela’s current output and short-term plans affect the broader global shortage in the following ways:
📊 The Math: Venezuela vs. The Global Deficit

  • The Global Gap: The International Energy Agency (IEA) estimates that the world is facing a 5.7 million bpd shortfall, forcing global inventories down by over 3 million barrels every single day. 1, 2, 3]
  • The Venezuelan Contribution: Venezuela is currently pumping around 1.25 million bpd. While newly signed joint ventures under the National Association of Black Export Professionals (NABEP) and Chevron aim to push production to 1.5 million bpd by mid-2027, this incremental increase of 250,000 bpd covers less than 5% of the macro global deficit. 1, 2, 3]
  • The One-Time Buffer: Bringing Venezuela's 30 million to 50 million barrels of stored crude to market sounds massive, but at the current global burn rate, that entire stockpile equals only 10 to 16 days of the world's current supply shortfall. 1]’

Middle East Supply Constraints Lift Crude Oil Prices

October WTI crude oil (CLV26) closed up +1.34 (+1.34%) on Monday, and October RBOB gasoline (RBV26) closed up +0.0099 (+0.30%).Crude oil and gasoline prices settled sharply higher on Monday, with crude posting a 3.75-month high. Energy prices are rally...

https://www.tradingview.com/news/barchart:d76897ab8094b:0-middle-east-supply-constraints-lift-crude-oil-prices/

RedTagAlan · Yesterday 16:39

trumpredcard · Yesterday 16:22

More Vz oil soon is more realistic than you think as the infrastructure is there to refine in several Caribbean countries and before Trump, it was exporting to Cuba, China etc. Admittedly, there will be work needed on maximising output in operations, bringing back abandoned wells and drilling new wells.

No AI needed to say that VZ oil is not easy. The same issue exists as there was months ago. Security. US companies won't go without that. Chevron might put more in because it has always been there. In any case, Canadian sand tar is a similar oil, so the US refiners on the gulf coast who can handle VZ oil are sorted.

The US has no spare capacity.

China would go in though. And they have the refineries to handle the oil. But I can't see Trump being happy with that.

TopPocketFind · Yesterday 17:12

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9gk58xgng0vo

The US defence department's inspector general says the war with Iran has led to "shortfalls" in munitions and a bottleneck in resupply, contradicting President Donald Trump who has repeatly denied the US is facing shortages.

Trump has claimed US munitions supplies are "virtually unlimited" and said reporting otherwise is "fake news".

But the independent watchdog said the US spent more than $22 billion on munitions from February through June, leading to "strategic inventory shortfalls".

The BBC has contacted the White House for comment about the discrepancy.

Patriot missile launchers on a grass field in Massachusetts.

Iran war has led to US munitions shortfalls, Pentagon inspector confirms

The inspector also found a bottleneck in resupply, despite President Donald Trump's claims that US supplies are "virtually limitless".

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/c9gk58xgng0vo

Newbutoldfather · Yesterday 17:22

I think the fact that Trump has declined to help the Saudis against the Houthis militarily speaks volumes.

I was totally shocked.

TopPocketFind · Yesterday 17:27

The Houthis were filming themselves driving US military vehicles.

TopPocketFind · Yesterday 17:32

And more displaced people

From Sky News

More than 2,000 Yemenis have fled the country, crossing the Bab el Mandeb strait to the East African nation of Djibouti, according to the International Organisation for Migration.

Djibouti's finance minister warned on the weekend the situation was "becoming increasingly difficult for our country despite our unwavering commitment to humanitarian assistance".

BelleHathor · Yesterday 18:21

Some things about Yemen.

Despite Trump boasting about how they would destroy the Houthis last year, America effectively withdrew and just claimed victory. Unlike others the Houthis didn't hold back and actively targeted US military apparatus causing incidents such as the following where an F18 fell off a ship whilst carrying out evasive manouvers:
https://www.politico.com/news/2025/04/28/u-s-fighter-jet-falls-overboard-00314317

And a minimum of 6 MQ9 drones https://abcnews.com/Politics/houthis-shoot-growing-number-us-drones/story?id=121099082

Trump actually called them tough fighters: https://www.middleeastmonitor.com/20250514-trump-the-houthis-are-tough-fighters/

And agreed to a ceasefire (the only one he has relatively respected) whereby the Houthis were left free to attack Israel as long as they didn't target American assets.

"Mediator Oman said the US and Houthis had agreed to "no longer target each other", after seven weeks of intensified US strikes on Yemen in response to Houthi missile and drone attacks on international shipping in the Red Sea.
Abdul Salam also said the deal did not include an end to attacks on Israel, which has conducted two rounds of retaliatory strikes on Yemen this week."

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/articles/cglxl67g28no

Currently the Houthis have said that the Bab El-Mandeb is still open for all ships except Saudi Arabia.

https://www.reuters.com/world/middle-east/saudi-says-no-danger-after-khamis-mushait-alert-amid-clashes-with-houthis-2026-09-10/

Part of the reason the Houthis were able to capture land so quickly was due to the Saudi backed side being full of Ghost troops (fake personnel that didn't exist anywhere on paper used to get larger payments from Saudi Arabia)

https://edition.cnn.com/2026/09/12/middleeast/yemen-houthi-saudi-us-blame-intl

Yemen is known as the graveyard of invaders. Nasser lost over 20000 Egyptian troops in his "Vietnam" war against Yemen. The terrain makes it difficult to invade.

https://www.justsecurity.org/66061/yemen-where-coalitions-come-to-die/

Houthis shoot down growing number of US drones

The Houthis have shot down a rising number of U.S. drones, with six MQ-9 drones brought down since the start of a large-scale U.S. air campaign in mid-March.

https://abcnews.com/Politics/houthis-shoot-growing-number-us-drones/story?id=121099082

Newbutoldfather · Yesterday 18:36

Yes, it’s not great.

Apparently the British have offered to help the Saudis, although I doubt it will amount to much.

Britain considering military help for Saudi Arabia against Houthi attacks

https://www.thetimes.com/article/d344ced8-2ee0-46aa-9138-f7346f5fd099?shareToken=ab674e6eb46681256ef2c7c29d795de5

Much as Trumps adventurism was stupid and illegal, the
clnse of Iran effectively winning this war and controlling all the oil coming out of the Middle East is pretty grim.

I suspect, were that to happen, Russia and China would be major beneficiaries.

Verifying Device

https://www.thetimes.com/article/d344ced8-2ee0-46aa-9138-f7346f5fd099?shareToken=ab674e6eb46681256ef2c7c29d795de5

BelleHathor · Yesterday 19:10

Well of course, but that's the law of unintended consequences that the US was warned about.

The sanctions on Russia and NATO not honouring (though there wasn't a treaty) the "not one inch to the east" assurance of not to expand, Russia was forced to ally with China. Now Iran has joined that fold. One of the last actually competent National Security advisors wrote about it in 1997

[AI Summary]
The Grand Chessboard: Iran, China, and Russia
In his 1997 book The Grand Chessboard: American Primacy and its Geostrategic Imperatives, former U.S. National Security Advisor Zbigniew Brzezinski warned that the most dangerous scenario for American global primacy would be the emergence of an anti-hegemonic "grand coalition" uniting China, Russia, and Iran.

Core Concepts from the Book

  • Eurasia as the Board: Brzezinski argued that global power dynamics are decided by control over the Eurasian landmass, which holds the majority of the world's population, resources, and economic output.
  • Geopolitical Pivots: States like Ukraine, Azerbaijan, South Korea, Turkey, and Iran are considered vital "pivots" because of their location rather than their direct power.
  • The Warning on Alliances: Brzezinski wrote that a coalition allying Russia with China and Iran would likely only form if the United States made the mistake of antagonizing Beijing and Tehran simultaneously.
Contemporary Relevance
  • Pragmatic Alignment: Analysts note that modern strategic partnerships between China and Russia, alongside Iran's regional actions, reflect a alignment driven by shared grievances against Western dominance rather than shared ideology.
  • Geopolitical Debate: Opinions remain divided on the durability of this bloc; some view it as a formidable challenge to the global order, while others cite internal economic constraints and competing regional interests as limiting factors.

He was a realist on geopolitics. Trump could call John Mearsheimer or Stephen Walt up right now, both distinguished Professors of International relations or he can continue down this path.

A quote from The Grand Chessboard

[...] a coalition allying Russia with both China and Iran can develop only if the United States is shortsighted enough to antagonize China and Iran simul...

https://www.goodreads.com/quotes/10006916-a-coalition-allying-russia-with-both-china-and-iran

RedTagAlan · Yesterday 19:17

TopPocketFind · Yesterday 17:27

The Houthis were filming themselves driving US military vehicles.

I am not surprised at all. I don't think Trump wants to kill. It's bravado. I don't think he has ever had the stomach for it in numbers. Sure he can reconcile deaths that he orders by saying "terrorists" or "bad people", but to back SA going into Yemen would be a horrific scale.

Edit -Sorry. Replied to wrong post. I meant to reply to @Newbutoldfather post on being surprised Trump does not go for the Houthi

BelleHathor · Yesterday 19:36

Nope in 2026 this is Darth Trump who enjoys violence and big booms. ,

2016 Trump actually wouldn't have put American troops in the position that they're in. He actually stopped bombings (or at least tweeted that he did) and actually looked concerned about no more new wars (part of the reason he won in 2024).

"Donald Trump has said the US air force was “cocked and loaded” to attack three Iranian targets on Friday morning, but he called off the strike with 10 minutes to spare after being told that the airstrike might kill as many as 150 people.

Trump said in a series of morning tweets that he decided late on Thursday that the death toll was not a proportionate response to the Iranian shooting down of a US spy drone off the Iranian coast 24 hours earlier.

The tweets revealed how close the world may have come to a Middle East conflagration, and raised questions over why the commander-in-chief was told so late in the planning of a military operation about the predicted loss of life involved. It would be routine for a president to be informed of the likely civilian casualties when the options are first presented.

Trump tweeted: “We were cocked & loaded to retaliate last night on 3 different sights when I asked, ‘How many will die?’ ‘150 people, sir’, was the answer from a General. 10 minutes before the strike I stopped it, not … proportionate to shooting down an unmanned drone.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/donald-trump-retaliatory-iran-airstrike-cancelled-10-minutes-before

Although there still remain some patriots within the US military who've and are still leaking information in order to try and restrain him.

Trump says he stopped airstrike on Iran because 150 would have died

US president tweets that he intervened 10 minutes before planned retaliatory attack

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2019/jun/21/donald-trump-retaliatory-iran-airstrike-cancelled-10-minutes-before

RedTagAlan · Today 05:40

In my post above I forgot to mention the no precision ammo thing. So he can't do precision strikes. I don't think he has the stomach for dumb bombs, or carpet bombing. He won't use the B52s.

I remember during his first term when he used Tomahawks in Syria. I got a vid call from a friend of the time, who was having a rooftop party there. All the family and neighbours were up on the flat roof to watch "Trumps strikes". And Trump targeted empty facilities. Also at the same time he dropped a Moab in Afghanistan. On a terror camp he claimed. It was in the middle of nowhere.

I don't think he wants to kill civvies. He is ok if other people do it though.

Also re the Houthi. He is also terrified of US planes being shot down and prisoners being taken. And who knows what anti aircraft "stingers" type arms the Houthi have. Cos the Houthi are mainly armed with stuff they captured from the Yemen guv. And they were supplied by China.