AIBU to leave it, or should I reach out to my friend?

[Ribenaberry12]

Friend of mine was shagging a colleague. I told her I didn’t think it would end well. It has not ended well. I’ve just found out that they have both been moved on at work and she has come out of it way worse than he has both professionally and personally.
She told me months ago and I’ve invited her out since on a few occasions and, whilst she’s been polite in her messages, she’s always declined. I’ve taken that to mean she doesn’t want to see me anymore and have stopped asking after her. Was gutted though, she was a good friend and I’ve definitely been upset at not having her around and she’s been in my thoughts a lot.
Have found out recently that the shit has hit the fan. Do I reach out? Part of me thinks she might really need a friend right now and feel too awkward to do as it’s been a while but part of me thinks she knows where I am if she needs me.
For context, she was single, he was not, he was in a position of power. Kids involved.

YANBU: She’s your friend, her life’s in the toilet, she needs you.
YABU: she fucked around and found out, stay out of it.

What does the "shit has hit the fan" mean in reality? Thanks

It’s really difficult. I would reach out but the problem will really be is whether she worries that there will be an aspect of ‘I told you so’ about it. So the wording has to be very carefully thought out and judged on how she is as a person and how you think she is feeling right now.

He was in the position of power, and he was the married one with kids… but her career has been impacted worse than hers? Sounds like she works for a really shitty company.

I’m not saying she shouldn’t suffer. She jumped into bed with a married man, and her senior. She should suffer at work, but no worse than him.

I’d reach out, if she was a dear friend. But… I don’t tend to remain friends with people who sleep with married people so might be time to just let her go, she doesn’t seem to want to see you anymore. Probably worried about the “I told you so.”

Sounds like she ditched you for saying it wouldn't end well, I don't think she'll be running back to hear "I told you so."

I think it would be nice to send a message saying that you miss her and you hope that she’s okay. I would also say that you would love to meet in person but will respect her decision to not stay in touch if that is too painful for her.

This is a great message. Go for this.

Cheers all. I am worried that she’ll think I’m getting in touch for an ‘I told you so’. She works in a really tight knit field and their relationship is now out in the open which is what I meant by the shit hit the fan. There’s a lot I don’t know so I don’t even know if she’s sobbing every night over it or they’re now together and forging a new life. Being moved on is in essence a demotion for them both though.

So, you don't really know what happened

Because you don't know if they're together or not

So how do you know that her life is in the toilet as you put it?

If they’re not together I can imagine she’ll be really upset but if they are together there will be friends and family who I think will have a hard time with the relationship and won’t welcome him and it will be tough for her at the start to build a life with him with so much judgement around.
That’s kind of why I tried to warn her off at the start. I couldn’t see this as being a situation where she could win without some personal or professional cost.