Will start off by saying I don't pay and never could pay private school fees. I have two kids in two private SEN schools and my LA pay the fees. It's not aspirational choice. It's purely because there aren't enough SEN places that cater to my kids needs. So vat has zero impact on me personally. I don't have skin in the game.
It's more of a general musing of how much vat will the gov generate when locally some big and old private schools are folding.
Locally we are having Some big, old prestigious schools fold. Some are forming a equivalent of MATs and banding together.
So. If say 25% picking a wild number of private schools fold. That's lowering labour's predictions on this vat return.
I'm personally not affected with mainstream catchments srinking either as my mainstream child has a ehcp so priority on places. Ie it doesn't touch me. But surely this has been factored in? Entire schools folding with days notice. I do wonder what happens to the sites next? OK to sell on for profit I assume now they pay vat?