Trump Liable in E. Jean Carroll Case

[ThisDayThatDay]

New York City jury finds him liable for defamation and sexual abuse. Ordered to pay a total of $5m in damages. Not liable for rape.

I wonder how this is going to shake down in terms of his Republican nomination? With the key issues at stake and the craziness of US politics right now, I just cannot predict these things with a scrap of confidence anymore. Big news anyway.

It will probably make him even more popular with his supporters

He'll argue the standard of proof is different, etc, etc. But I agree it's big news.

Sadly this.

Makes zero difference with zealot Republican base.
It matters to swing voters, they don't like the drama.
Swing voters matter in terms of carrying a whole state.
Jerrymandering ensures that Republicans will dominate in most legislatures, anyway.
So... split tickets? And then Trump will allege voter fraud again because he can't understand split ballots.

I agree.

The 'base' vote is bombproof. I've spent years in a slow-dawning state of just how bombproof. It's astonishing. Trump's line about standing in the middle of Fifth Avenue and shooting somebody and not losing voters was remarkably prescient.

I read her account of the rape and felt sick to my gut.
That bastard should be in jail.
Maybe this is just the beginning and it will embolden all the other women he's assaulted to seek justice.

Do you think this will prevent the Republicans from selecting him as their candidate?

Makes zero difference, Swan.
Trump opened up access to an electorate who rarely vote at all, and at their fringes are people who want to vote and have become highly over-represented in the primary elections. Short of heavy jerrymandering (which the Republicans have mastered, but it only works for House of Reps), their previous demographic is declining as % of population so they had to find a new core constituency. Their new core buys into Trump's narrative that the allegations are made up political personal attacks on him. Or else they don't care because they like him as a disrupter / Abortion denier court manipulator / delivers tax breaks for the rich.

My fundamentalist cousins were raised being told that Obama was pure evil. I didn't track down why. Probably to do with abortion. With a liberal sprinkling of "how dare he wear a tan suit" and "socialised medicine means eugenics for everyone tomorrow" on top. Judging by their Facebook, cousins have friends of all skin colours, it's not simply race, but they are extremely religious. Trump being an amoral adulturer gluttonous self-serving tax-cheating narcissist doesn't bother that mindset, as long as his agenda allows removing abortion access.

if you get into American politics & want to understand Trump populism better, The best people to follow in Republican circles imho are the Never Trumpers, the ones who can't stand him. Steve Schmidt, Ana Navarro, John Brennan, George Conway, Nicole Wallace. Also people like Scott Adams who say they are apolitical but really he's highly self-serving. If you can stomach Adams (I can't, he's as incomprehensible to me as Dominic Cummings).

Molly Jong Fast (Fast Politics) is a good podcast to listen to.

So they overlooked all the other stuff but this would be the final straw? Unfortunately not.

His supporters won’t care.

Trump once said he could shoot someone in the middle of 5th avenue without losing support, and sadly it's probably true. His supporters don't care if he's a rapist or a sexual abuser, with some of them it probably makes them like him more.

Maybe he isn't the messiah, but just a very naughty boy ?