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Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

(1000 Posts)
RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 17:40:57

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 24-May-19 17:44:17

.

Iambuffy Fri 24-May-19 17:44:39

Pmk

dreichuplands Fri 24-May-19 17:44:45

Every time I think it can't get worse it can.
Thanks Red.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 17:48:49

Last night (lovely weather ...) DW and I were enjoying a drink on our patio, when a black cat decided to sit on the fence in front of us. Quite fixated by something our side (I'm guessing a rat under the decking). It then jumped up onto next doors extension and prowled around before sitting up for about 5 minutes. Then it prowled down onto our fence again, jumped onto the decking with a slight fumble, styled it out, and walked off into the garden. Just as we went to go indoors it reappeared, jumped on the fence, over next doors sideway, into the night. I wish I'd filmed it. It felt for all the world as if it was doing it's rounds, and nodded us a quite "sector clear" as it continued in it's mysterious ways.

Hows that for a placemark grin

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 17:49:03

Every time I think it can't get worse it can.

Oh yeah, the reason Johnson has said he will crash us out, MIGHT be because he knows that no one can get anything through parliament thus he's better strategy to 'look tough' is to make it appear that he's deliberately up for crashing out.

MaudBaileysGreenTurban Fri 24-May-19 17:49:27

So...it's Johnson and No Deal.

Fuck me.

boatyardblues Fri 24-May-19 17:49:39

No kitties here for my placeholder, but I’ll tip my hat to RTB and all the tireless Westminsterenders who power through thread after thread. Are you all running on Haribos and coffee?

bellinisurge Fri 24-May-19 17:51:29

Me too @dreichuplands .
Thank you Red.

I saw Michael Heseltine on the news saying Parliament would stop No Deal. Don't forget that even if Boris gets those wankers cheerleading in tbe HoC, the numbers are the same.
Brexiteers seem to think that being louder and wankier will win over MPs, the EU and everyone else. The opposite is true.

Hang on to your hats. It's going to get even more bumpy.

OhLookHeKickedTheBall Fri 24-May-19 17:52:35

Thanks red

HazardGhost Fri 24-May-19 17:52:47

Ta red

Johnson with no deal sounds like hell.

Very intrigued by Wales! Do we have any Welsh posters or lurkers?

NoWordForFluffy Fri 24-May-19 17:52:59

PMK.

Thanks, Red.

Did I somehow miss the NW turnout stats on the last thread?

Dockray Fri 24-May-19 17:53:04

I'm in the NE. Straw poll of friends and family who normally vote Labour and only 1 stuck with them this time. 1 went green and the other 8 went (after much debate) with Lib Dems. Could be some interesting results on Sunday.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 17:54:29

Are you all running on Haribos and coffee?

I don't drink tea or coffee. But I confess I've devoured a packet of jelly babies by myself today and now I feel very sick and very guilty. So you really aren't far off the mark...

I saw Michael Heseltine on the news saying Parliament would stop No Deal.

How can parliament stop no deal, if parliament isn't sitting?

bellinisurge Fri 24-May-19 17:57:58

I discussed prorogue-ing Parliament with dh. Obviously it's a risk. But I don't think Boris has the nerve to shut down Parliament (essentially what that would be) to force Brexit through.
Shit, we are still talking about Cromwell/Charles I dicking about with Parliament (well, us nerds are grin).

Basilpots Fri 24-May-19 17:58:38

Telegraph has come out and said BXP have most votes maybe what Boris is basing his statement on ?

Love that Wales has gone ‘rogue’ just hopes it’s more yellow than turquoise.

Surely privately Nigel will be disappointed with that increase considering the change in political climate since 2014 and the collapse of support for both main parties. If it’s Labour voters staying at home it means they are not prepared to vote BXP as a protest vote now are they likely to in a general election? If he aims to make serious inroads to Westminster he will need more than the Brexiteer Tory vote to do it.

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 17:59:23

Did I somehow miss the NW turnout stats on the last thread?

I've only seen Leigh, Wigan, St Helens and Makerfield. I don't think it took them very long to count the turnout out...

I'm in the NE. Straw poll of friends and family who normally vote Labour and only 1 stuck with them this time. 1 went green and the other 8 went (after much debate) with Lib Dems. Could be some interesting results on Sunday.
With there only being 3 seats in the NE, a shift to the LD from Lab and a shift from the Cons to the Brexit could work for the Brexit Party and get them a 2nd seat. I think Labour will still hang on to one seat.

The prediction is that one seat will flip red to turquoise, and honestly I think that will probably happen.

1tisILeClerc Fri 24-May-19 18:01:26

www.youtube.com/watch?v=1yjxWfyxpqY

A musical PMK. Not a good recording, sorry about that.

lonelyplanetmum Fri 24-May-19 18:01:32

Can you imagine how good you would be at your job if you were facing the following in your out of work hours?

1. You had the emotional stress and distraction of supplying lawyers with complex financial information to unravel a 25 year marriage. Plus.

2. A complex court case looming with a preliminary decision due shortly to decide if you would face trial for a criminal offence (which carries a range of sanctions including imprisonment) .

These are the things Boris is facing.Those distractions alone should disqualify him from PM candidacy.

NoWordForFluffy Fri 24-May-19 18:02:56

How can the Telegraph say that?! Are they psychic, what with there being no exit polls? Or, are they just confident about the pre-election polls?

RTB, I'm glad I didn't miss something! Shame that my area aren't doing anything until Sunday!

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 18:03:36

I think the Telegraph are correct.

Surely privately Nigel will be disappointed with that increase considering the change in political climate since 2014 and the collapse of support for both main parties. If it’s Labour voters staying at home it means they are not prepared to vote BXP as a protest vote now are they likely to in a general election? If he aims to make serious inroads to Westminster he will need more than the Brexiteer Tory vote to do it.

Don't count your chickens. I think Nige will be disappointed that he hasn't motivated more in Leave areas he's held rallies in. But as long as he's comfortably over 30% I think he'll be satisfied. Its enough to campaign for a GE from with a view to be PM.

Apileofballyhoo Fri 24-May-19 18:03:45

I've a feeling Boris will pull out of the competition. Do you think he cares more about (a) himself (b) the Tory party or (c) being Prime Minister.

I was going to do (d) the country but I think it's pointless as I'd imagine that's what he cares about least. I think (a) which means he won't take a poisoned chalice.

DGRossetti Fri 24-May-19 18:04:44

A bit of time alone with Google, and some fresh coffee I found that docudrama. And I apologise profusely to Granada, who made some of the best TV of the 70s, 80s and 90s.

en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thatcher:_The_Final_Days

Just reading that now, some names jump back from history ...

George Younger
John Gummer
Kenneth Baker

...

boatyardblues Fri 24-May-19 18:05:12

I am a bit behind at the mo. What’s rumoured to have happened in Wales?

RedToothBrush Fri 24-May-19 18:05:12

Lonely.

Possible number 3) An increase in EU voter turnout in Hillingdon??

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