The Vote has been cast.
The PM has quit. SHOCK!
We now face The Big Wait.
Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.
Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.
At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.
Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!
Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.
Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.
Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.
The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.
Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???
Results due after 10pm Sunday.
Brexit
Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days
RedToothBrush · 24/05/2019 17:40
Last night (lovely weather ...) DW and I were enjoying a drink on our patio, when a black cat decided to sit on the fence in front of us. Quite fixated by something our side (I'm guessing a rat under the decking). It then jumped up onto next doors extension and prowled around before sitting up for about 5 minutes. Then it prowled down onto our fence again, jumped onto the decking with a slight fumble, styled it out, and walked off into the garden. Just as we went to go indoors it reappeared, jumped on the fence, over next doors sideway, into the night. I wish I'd filmed it. It felt for all the world as if it was doing it's rounds, and nodded us a quite "sector clear" as it continued in it's mysterious ways.
Hows that for a placemark 
I discussed prorogue-ing Parliament with dh. Obviously it's a risk. But I don't think Boris has the nerve to shut down Parliament (essentially what that would be) to force Brexit through.
Shit, we are still talking about Cromwell/Charles I dicking about with Parliament (well, us nerds are ).
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