Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

I wonder if there is a nationalism effect in Wales. Plaid were polling unexpectedly well.

Plaid Cymru's votes will be up

Get Gummer back to promote Chlorine washed chicken and hormone beef. I think his DC might put up more of a fight though.

Wales has particularly large voter turnout. For both leave and remain areas. This is not consistent with other areas.

PMK.

I've a feeling Boris will pull out of the competition. Do you think he cares more about (a) himself (b) the Tory party or (c) being Prime Minister

On the basis (noted upthread) that nothing fundamental has changed, I still think this vacancy is the poison chalice it's always been. If proof were needed, who remembers how some Tories magicked up a new role of "caretaker" PM to go between May and the new Supreme Leader ? Which is openly stating that this PM is toast, whatever happens.

That being the case why would Boris want to be anywhere near it ? Especially as he wouldn't lose anything by finding his inner JRM and sniping from the sidelines. Again.

Obviously someone as dim as Leadsom wouldn't see that.

Also, Boris might find it more advantageous in the long run to step aside and get fully behind another candidate. Much easier to stab them in the back that way.

It wasn't the mob that killed Caesar. It was the senate ....

I’m not an election expert I’m an election expert’s son and I’m only watching elections until... Sunday.

Thanks RTB.

The future of the country should not be decided by the Tory membership alone! How undemocratic!
If Boris or whoever replaces May prorogued parliament to force a no deal brexit, we need to remember that they will have blood on their hands (just because people are desensitized to the idea of No Deal doesn't mean the realities of it have changed). They need to be ready to personally take on that responsibility as there will be nowhere to hide and no 'treacherous' MPs to blame. It would take so much balls, I can't see any of them going through with it. If they did though, we could be truly worried as we'd have a ruthless potential despot in the making at the helm...

Brexiteers seem to think that being louder and wankier will win over MPs, the EU and everyone else. The opposite is true.

Yup.

Wales has particularly large voter turnout. For both leave and remain areas. This is not consistent with other areas.

Now I'm quite happy to admit I know fuck all about Welsh Nationalism (already qualifies me for a position in high office, I know).

Is it at all possible that there has been a recognition that while Scotland and NIs remain bias has increased their chances of independence, Wales shackling itself to England has kyboshed theirs ? And they're trying to swing to Remain to also dump England ?

How would an independent Wales work ? Do they get a free Queen, or what ?

Wales has a prince (Chas). Perhaps that’ll do.

Hasn't someone at some point floated the idea of a Celtic federation? Could it be an attractive proposition for Scotland Wales and Ireland?

Michael Harris @mjrharris
Labour friends think Labour lost in Islington, Lewisham, Southwark (this is just what I've heard so far...). Going to be grim night in London.

There seem to be plenty of 'Royals' floating about at the moment, before long you will be getting one free for each county.

Wales has a prince (Chas). Perhaps that’ll do

From memory, the reason they have a prince is one of the Edwards (I or III ?) pretty much told them that was how it was going to be since they were now ruled by England.

Totally outing but I was at the 1987 re-enactment of the Battle of Mortimers Cross with BPAS. I had to dress as a peasant to get onto the field to take photographs (which was my hobby, not the re-enactment jollies). I would probably have remembered more of the story if I hadn't been so hungover ....

I would be very pleased if London and the South east took on an orangy green hue.

I assume they mean BXP has more votes than the next party, rather than more votes than everyone?

And they may be (probably are) right if it's the former, but if they are, it's not going to be a surprise with the polls. However, nobody actually KNOWS for sure given the lack of exit polls.

Is Boris king yet?

Pmk yet again

I am cheered up by the prospect of parcelling off the Royal Family to the various parts of the (dis)united kingdom. England gets to keep Larry the Cat, mind you.

Quietly placing mat down...

Oh yes, Vince is going on 23th July.

(Missed that completely).

Is there much serious talk/thought happening about a general election after a new Tory leader?

I know it's Labour's preference but they always want one!

To have a PM we haven't voted in and for them to go crash out feels as if it should be widely regarded as wrong.

Could it be an attractive proposition for Scotland Wales and Ireland
Fighting nationalism with nationalism. No thanks.

Thank you for the thread red

Many thanks to RTB and to you all for these engaging and informative threads. I'm more of a (sad) lurker as the continuing farce unfolds but you are all much appreciated.