Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

CCHQ/1922 committee announced earlier today (signed off by the deputy committee as Bredy recused himself it was before he formally resigned ) that the leadership campaign would start on 10th Jue, they expected to get it down to 2 candidates by the end of June and then it would go out to the membership with quick turnaround for voting. The intention is to have it done and dusted by the time Parliament goes into recess - so as accelerated as possible.

....leaving the new PM free to do what he likes for 8 weeks until they return

Politico's estimate - looks the average of polls,
with BREX clearly leading the field on 33% and winning 25 of the 73 UK seats

pmk

As far as I know Oubliette Llywelyn didn’t have any children so they traced it through his brothers’ line.
I’ve no evidence it is true but the place where I lived is fervently Welsh and they certainly believed it.
He was also called by the same name that Laura said.
The ap Gruffydd means son of Gruffydd.

Never mind his premature ejaculations; political and otherwise...........

Here's what he's really like.

@MatesJacob
If you’re not familiar with the story of how Boris Johnson conspired to get a journalist beaten up, i don’t blame you. It really doesn’t get mentioned enough: www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/darius-boris-and-a-blast-from-the-past-1658043.html …

Tories seem to be facing a choice of bad or mad as their leader.

Tricky.

pretty Can they be that efficient, especially with the likely large number of leadership candidates ?
( though maybe some no-hopers will be leaned on to pull out )

If they really can run the leadership election so quickly & efficiently, it suggests they just didn't care about the muddle and disenfranchised voters in the EP elections

Beth Rigby did express a degree of skepticism

They were only talking about 2 hustings but if there is a plethora of candidates, they may have to re-think that.

But who cares about democracy? Us proles shouldn't worry our feeble minds about it. The great intellects of the Conservative Party will be able to cope with all that choice and make quick decisions as to who will be best.

What could possibly go wrong?!

Pmk - thank you RTB and the other legendary contributors on these threads.

Sam McBride @SJAMcBride
European election turnout in Northern Ireland was a mediocre 45.14%. Despite the enormity of Brexit for NI & the poll being presented as a quasi-referendum on the issue, most people didn't vote. That's down from this month's council elections (52.7%) & the last EU election(51.8%)

Allie Renison @AllieRenison
I think arguing it shows ppl dont care about #Brexit in a way that's sort of being suggested is difficult until you actually have the results and can show where votes went (and didnt turn up from)...

Sam McBride @SJAMcBride
Yes and no. I think Naomi Long may well take the third seat and if that happens it will be significant, regardless of turnout. But it is less significant as a barometer of wider public opinion when most people haven't voted for anyone than if turnout had soared.

NI is currently 1 Ulster Unionist, 1 Democratic Unionist, 1 SDLP

I've seen suggestion that it will go 1 DUP, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Alliance. So interesting to see Sam McBride suggesting that too. It suggests something of an end to the religious tribalism through a drop off in support for unionism - whether that be through apathy or a polarisation of NI politics or both.

Thanks everyone for the kind words re DH. These threads are wonderful not only for the exceptionally well-informed opinions and links to information that might otherwise be missed but also for the support and kindness we all need during these dark days. I’m so glad I found you all (if only it could have been under better circumstances!)

You posted Vince is stepping down on 23 July
Do you think that doorstep horror made him decide he's had enough

Bigchoc that made me laugh. I shall pass this on to StepFiL...

Boris would be a car crash PM
He'd do to the whole country what he did to Nazanin - throw her far deeper in the shit

Pippa Crerar**@PippaCrerar

NEW: Boris Johnson rules out an extension.

He tells an economic conference in Switzerland:

“We will leave the EU on October 31, deal or no deal...
The way to get a good deal is to prepare for a no deal.
To get things done you need to be prepared to walk away."
< still thinking they need us more than ... ? >
......
Tom Newton Dunnn@tnewtondunn*

Is this Boris's first big mistake?
< no, his 1001 st big mistake>

There won't even be enough time to pass the 6 No Deal bills before Oct 31 now,
let alone other preparations.

Some serious Brexiteers are now saying extend A50 by another 12 months
< if the EU will play ball - why should they help No Dealers ? >

and then you'd be ready for a hard ball new negotiation.

BCF
Combining the projected results for all Remain parties would give us 21 seats. Shame about Labour's position but can we assume that Labour's MEPs are mostly pro EU? Do we know how they stand?

Coming late to the party... I am a Welsh lurker. Boringly I always vote Plaid Cymru I almost ticked the Change UK box but didn't - national parties just don't give a toss about Wales. DH voted for Plaid too. The only other voters I saw were elderly - we are in a Brexit area with a high % of OAPs, UKIP are very active and successful

songs We know from bitter experience of the 2017 GE that all votes for CON & LAB are counted as voting for Brexit.

Despite that, the reality is that there are several pro-EU Labour MEPs and probably even couple of Tory ones

It's a total car crash all round. How on earth are we going to move forward now?

mythical I gather in Wales too, that BREX has taken almost all the former UKIP voters,
plus many Tory voters too

So you have probably swapped the Purple Penises for the Turquoise Turkeys

@bellinisurge
we are still talking about Cromwell/Charles I dicking about with Parliament

I am willing to see Buffoon act as Charles I, if the consequences are the same.

^Politico's estimate - looks the average of polls,
with BREX clearly leading the field on 33% and winning 25 of the 73 UK seats^

Politicos estimate largely relies on the Labour vote holding and the LDs coming third not second.

Do you think thats likely from turnout?

The problem with the LDs doing well at the expense of Labour, is it lets the Brexit Party in via the back door. Which could well explain why YouGov was coming up with an 'outlier poll'.

It looks as if the LDs are more likely to be pushing close to 20%. LD success really could have poison in the tail if it comes mostly from Labour. Which is why I'm cautious about the whole thing atm and think that remainers are perhaps being a little too happy about turnout so far.

The idea that high LD/remain vote means its 'stopped' a 'Brexit Party surge' is naive for this reason. Particularly in areas where there might have been NO or LITTLE increase in turnout. It might actually have the opposite effect to the one you think. Which might seem a counter intuitive thing to say.
Unless remain voters are more likely to turn out than leave voters in high leave areas, its a danger. And thats something you can't tell from turnout alone.

PMK

I gather in Wales too, that BREX has taken almost all the former UKIP voters,
plus many Tory voters too

I expect so BigChocFrenzy.

Very intrigued by Wales! Do we have any Welsh posters or lurkers?

Me! Labour member but voted PC. I’ve not been in the office for a few days but we were talking the other day and (with very few exceptions) most were retainers and voting appropriately. Most people in the company under 45.

Is Politico's forecast based on overall percentages or by region?

Because of the d'Hondt system and potential regional variations, I'd take a forecast based on UK wide percentages with a pinch of salt.

But what it is showing is that the UK state is still hopelessly - and roughly equally - split

I too looked at BCFs projected results and ignoring Labour noted that Brexit was on 32.92 and all the Remain parties added up to 32.40.So very much a tied position, as was the original Referendum.

How it will actually pan out, well - we have about 50 hours to go.

If Boris is saying leave on Halloween whatever happens but some Brexiters want a year extension, surely that makes them incompatible bed partners going forward anyway?

What's Raab got to say about all this? That might show us where the ERG votes will really go.

Is this after the 9pm watershed? We have premature ejaculation, dicking around and pulling out being mentioned, never mind how one might get a purple penis.