Westministenders: The One Where Everyone is an Election Expert For 3 Days

[RedToothBrush]

The Vote has been cast.

The PM has quit. SHOCK!

We now face The Big Wait.

Waiting for the results. Waiting for the new leader. Waiting for a new direction.

Turnout looks likely to be up overall compared to 2014. Whether this is a good thing or a bad thing isn't clear.

At this stage realistically the only definite thing that I think you can actually speculate is the LDs have done very well indeed. Turnout is up in all traditional LD areas and remain areas in general. Though some LDs are getting a little carried away.

Does this mean that the Brexit Party will do badly? No. Its merely a reflection of demographic polarisation. And it may indeed help the Brexit Party ironically. It does suggest that Labour hasn't done well in the north (difference with 2014 turnouts worst in Labour areas) and there are hints that the Cons have done badly (Lincolnshire turnout for the locals was lower than for the EU elections). Something is happening in Wales. But no one seems to really understand what. Its gone 'rogue'!

Plus there are far more leave areas than remain ones. The increases in turnout possibly aren't enough to make a significant dent on the Brexit Party lead.

Not much of an increase in turnout in places like Derby, Middlesbrough, Hartlepool, Basildon, Leigh - which all have high leave figures suggest that the Brexit Party are not motivated those they persuaded to the polls for the first time in 2016 for the Ref to vote. Instead it means they can only increase their vote share with a further collapse in the Lab / Con vote from 2014. The question with this is how close were UKIP to the ceiling vote? If you didn't go with UKIP in 2014 would the ref change that? Does this mark it harder for them to hit close to 38% vote share? Argueably yes - but don't get too excited yet either. It doesn't mean they won't do very well, if there is a Lab/Con vote collaspe like the locals. I still would not be surprised by a mid-thirties result.

Psychologically the popular vote matters. This might be important for the future. The vote of those extra referedum voters hasn't been motivated by another protest vote under Farage. Who is going to try and court them? This affects the direction of all the parties.

The real issue is how the seats split down. With the vote fragmented between the LDs, Greens, Plaid and SNP the ranking is against them. And works for the Brexit Party.

Meanwhile Boris Johnson has vowed to crash the UK out the EU without a deal.... what internal numbers is he aware of???

Results due after 10pm Sunday.

Cross post with prettybird. I would expect LD and Green to do OK in London, S East and SW. Poorly in NW and W Mids.

I assume that Gibraltar votes with the South West? I don't know who exactly they would return, but pretty sure that their votes would be for Remain parties.

Tonight's edifying subject (for me) is Offa's Dike presented by Michael Wood in tight flares. Bordering on topic for this evening.

NI is currently 1 Ulster Unionist, 1 Democratic Unionist, 1 SDLP

I've seen suggestion that it will go 1 DUP, 1 Sinn Fein, 1 Alliance. So interesting to see Sam McBride suggesting that too. It suggests something of an end to the religious tribalism through a drop off in support for unionism - whether that be through apathy or a polarisation of NI politics or both.

The current set up of 1 DUP, 1 UUP and 1 Sinn Fein does overrepresent unionism a bit, but that's just the way the numbers fall when you have only three seats. It does look like Naomi Long will take the third seat from the UUP, especially as their incumbent is not running. She is very well known and well respected and would make a very sensible, moderate MEP. Here's hoping.

If this does come to pass, all of NI's MEPs would be women.

I have a weird feeling its not going to be Boris.
I don't think any of them will lead us anywhere good though.

I don't think Boris is stupid enough to take it.

I think most of them would really prefer to be the PM after the next one.

The sick feeling in my stomach is back.

I am taking Politico with a grain of salt. It looks to be a poll of polls (meta data) based on pre-election polling. Exit polls ( which I guess are forbidden) would be much more accurate.

Thanks again Red and everyone.

I have a feeling Boris will sidestep at the 11th hour and toss the poisoned chalice to someone else. Can't shake the sick feeling that somehow we are going to end up with Prime Minister McVey.

Just watched Lewis Goodall’s report on Farage and the Brexit rallies. Grim viewing. ‘Whatever happens, he’s won already’ says Goodall. One Farage fan actually said the words ‘We’ve beaten Germany twice, we’ll beat them again’.

I actually feel physically sick after watching. I think I’m done with Brexit talk for tonight.

His influence is writ not just in who sits atop the Tory party but in all they say and do.

For when his opponents shrilly lambast his lack of manifesto they miss the point: he has no need for one.

He needs not detailed policies or spending plans, he just needs to exist; his ghost forever haunting the Tory feast, his pallid grinning visage at their shoulders.

He reminds them, should they depart from the will of the people, a will that, he apparently uniquely is able to divine, he will, as always, be there, ready to strike.

news.sky.com/story/whatever-happens-now-nigel-farage-has-already-won-11727365

Glad to see Welsh westminsters

The new PM will have the problem that Leavers are still bitterly divided

and why should Remainers help any of them, until they decide what they want to do

• we'll get blamed for what goes wrong , when we don't "beat Germany a 3rd time"

In fact, Merkel has been trying to help us all along, but the UK govt choices have seriously restricted what she can do, or persuade other member countries to do

SW is OK constituency for remain in terms of leave remain balance. Its traditionally Blue and Yellow anyway. If the Blue goes both Turquoise and Yellow its not changing anything fundamentally. However it does mean that instead of 2 seats the Brexit Party will have at least 3, with Tories losing at least one seat. The LDs gain one seat from the Tories and Labour votes. And poor old molly might yet be yellow toast.

London is interesting because its low leave to begin with. It has the highest population and lots of 'stacked' remain voters. Thus if Labour lose vote share it goes Remain rather than tipping things towards the Turquoise Turkeys. And remain are more likely to hover up the last seats with a better turnout. But Ukip only have one seat. There was a suggestion of a Brexit gain here, but that might be hard if the turnout trend continues.

A good turnout in Scotland is good for remain generally imo. Could squeeze out leave completely if it goes the right way.

The NE is a problem though. I think you'll get a seat flip there. Wales I think you'll get same there too at the expense of a current tory seat that Labour might have hoped for. I think previous polling was showing 2 Lab, 2 Brexit. More likely to be 2 Brexit, 1 lab, 2 plaid.

West mids and East mids are a problem if there is a Labour leave collapse or a tory collapse. This is where Brexit Party pick up seats most easily.

When I look through the constituencies it's hard to see how the Brexit Party don't gain seats from Ukips 24 at the last election at this point.

The only places where remain has a chance to limit the Brexit Party ambition is realistically in London. There's a chance in East of England, the SE and NW if things go the right way.

I can count 6 comfortable looking gains (SW, Wales, NE, East Mids, West Mids, East of Eng) which are reasonably safe bets.

What I can't see if anywhere they are liable to lose any seats. And that's where it bothers me.

I'm therefore trying to be optimistic about turnout and popular vote. But yeah. More I look and crunch numbers the less happy I am tbh.

katya adler@BBCkatyaadler

A number of EU countries, notably France, think it probably best to close the door sooner rather than later, to a country that is leaving anyway.

President Macron worries that the longer the UK stays reluctantly, the more it might poison the general EU atmosphere but /8

Germany would prefer to give the UK more time,
if not to change its mind about #Brexitt^, then at least to ensure an “orderly exit” – ie Brexit with a deal – to avoid the economic and political fallout of no deal at all /9

In fact on that note I'm going to disappear for the night before I wind myself up too much.

red I was briefly cheering up at the prediction of 25 seats for BREX, only 1 up on UKIP.

Now I have to sadly agree with you that it depends totally on how much LAB & CON collapse

CON especially switch to BREX, whereas LAB can let them in by switching to other parties - however, the alternative of staying with LAB would be to have a vote counted as being in favour of Brexit

A really large BREX vote could be the turning point for the EU members to decide against a further extension

Thanks for the new thread Red.

Ok, it's Friday night, and wine may have been taken, but I will miss this thread when it's gone (to paraphrase Eric Morecambe)

Hearing the personal stories of everyone, helping to make sense of all the madness.

On the Rejoice thread we are told we should be quaking in our boots about something that’s about to happen, but not what it might be. Deluges of milkshake perhaps?
Placemarking with that inane observation. Thanks Red, and all.

I'm therefore trying to be optimistic about turnout and popular vote
This is a long haul. Like many before. Have a good w/e red

A really large BREX vote could be the turning point for the EU members to decide against a further extension
They are not daft. May well exclude offering an extension, I agree, but they know what this is.

I would be delighted if the Turquoise Big Arrow Party could be squeezed out in Scotland, so that we could expunge the shame of having elected (for one term only ) a Purple Penis MEP.

It would be lovely if the result were 4 SNP, 1 LibDem and 1 Green.

However, more realistically, it is likely to be 3 SNP, 1 Labour (to be fair, the No 1 on the list has been a good MEP), 1 Green or LibDem (should have been Green but at least 2 of the Tactical Voting sites said LibDem) and () 1 Turquoise Big Arrow Party

Still a strong pro-EU majority though - and even the current Labour MEP (1st named on the list) is pro-EU/Remain (take that Corbyn )

Big I was also cheered by only one seat gain. Anecdotally among friends and family I can report 3 votes green 4 votes Lib all from people who have never voted for these parties or in EU election before Ukip -2 my parents both leave voters who voted Ukip in 2014 Euros but can’t countenance a no deal Brexit we are all West Midland region.

My worst fear is newbie remainer voters are simple replacing good Labour voters who stayed away this time.

Wasn't sure if anyone posted this? Apparently the BP candidate for the NE lives in France! (Sorry 1tisILeClerc!).

Also think Wales voted Plaid - definitely hearing far more about independent Wales on FB.

Just wondering, and probably v. naively, why we are looking back to the 2016 ref and leave/remain areas rather than the more recent LE? I get local issues can swing a few things and Libs do well...but we do always say on here that people have changed their minds! Seems a little odd to assume the areas who suddenly switched to LD from Tory in LE are back to supporting Brexit? Sure I'm missing something obvious though.

Thanks Red