If only 5% of babies arrive on their due date, when's the most common time for them to arrive?

(25 Posts)
Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 19:59:02

Or is it evenly spread? Just got me wondering, and I don't know where to find the stats.

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CarGirl Wed 16-Sep-09 19:59:51

before or after grin

Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 20:00:43

Give me STATS, CarGirl, you fiend.

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LuluMaman Wed 16-Sep-09 20:01:40

around 41 weeks i believe !! think there is a definite peak in arrivals at 41 weeks

GirlsAreLOud Wed 16-Sep-09 20:01:48

I vaguely remember a stat like one third are early and two thirds late. Makes you wonder why they don't just make EDDs a bit later grin

EasyEggs Wed 16-Sep-09 20:02:11

When you least expect them to or you don't need them to in my experience grin

alana39 Wed 16-Sep-09 20:02:36

I read somewhere that 80% arrive within 2 weeks either side of due date. Not very specific, sorry.


GwarchodwrPlant Wed 16-Sep-09 20:05:23

I conducted my own personal poll following a thread I started when I was expecting as I was desperate to know when the day would most likely arrive.

5 days over as it turns out. That seemed to be the most common due date and guess what? My LO arrived 5 days late!

Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 20:05:26

Hmm. It's all a bit vague, isn't it? The 5% due date thing is bandied about with precision - someone must have looked at the % on other dates, surely?

<am torn - 38 weeks and feeling it, but lovely consultant not back until due date! Not that I have a choice, mind.>

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Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 20:06:16

5 days late? That would be ok - except that this baby is no doubt a giant already. dd was 40 +1.

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CarGirl Wed 16-Sep-09 20:08:20

5 days is nothing, try 16 wink

Georgimama Wed 16-Sep-09 20:10:46

One of my friends had both her children on their due dates. Obviously some first babies are prem, but for a first I would steal yourself for 5 to 10 days late.

It's always great fun when you're at the end: "Gosh, look at you, when's he due?"
"Last Friday."

They instantly look as if they expect you to plunge into immediate labour and expect them to play catch.

Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 20:21:50

Huh. I've had the "Gosh, look at you, when's he due?" since about 20 bloody weeks. I grow 'em big, I do.

Not my first, georgimama, which is why I'm wondering - dd was 40+1, and it would be terribly handy if this one followed suit!

CarGirl - is the 16 day thread yours? If so, your non-statistical early response is forgiven, and I humbly retract the use of "fiend".

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CarGirl Wed 16-Sep-09 20:27:51

No, not mine.

dd1 induced ar 14 days over
dd2 induced at 16 days over (10lb 6oz)
dd3 induced at term (don't ever recommend that on a history of overdueness)
dd4 induced at 14 days over.

I too looked huge, it was the many comments of "is it twins?" that hurt, although I am only 5'

Also went to birmingham for the day (2 hours away) more than a week overdue with youngest, and 3 other children. I took my notes & tens machine just in case though!

Habbibu Wed 16-Sep-09 20:42:44

dd was 10lb 11oz at term!

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PacificDogwood Wed 16-Sep-09 20:45:52

EDD in France is calculated for 42 week pregnancy. I wonder how many "overdue" babies arrive in France??
Ds1 induced 42+2
DS2 emCS (does not really count) at 31 weeks
DS3 VBAC 41+5

DS4 ?? - I hope he'll be late as well because his due date is DS2's birthday hmm.

CarGirl Wed 16-Sep-09 21:00:03

2nd babies aren't always bigger wink

still its the size of the head & shoulders I reckon.

arolf Wed 16-Sep-09 21:27:45

I heard somewhere it was 10% premature; 25% 37-40 weeks, 5% on due date, and 60% after - but think i read that on here, so not sure where the stats come from originally!

Kingsroadie Thu 17-Sep-09 12:05:27

I was recently told in my NCT class that 4% are born on the due date and the remaining 96% is split before and after (usually 10 days either side but clearly not always the case!)

LadyMetroland Thu 17-Sep-09 12:51:55

Am also interested in this as am 39+2 but convinced I'll go overdue... so have been googling madly

Here's an interesting article from bbc radio 4 programme a while back

And here's a study from 1990 link here - based on uncomplicated pregnancies, which I think says that first babies are on average 8 days overdue

You'd think this would be something that medical authorities would have seriously researched -- inducing people based on incorrect methodology is surely not a good thing!

StealthPolarBear Thu 17-Sep-09 12:53:00

surely the due date by definition is the most likely time for them to arrive??

StealthPolarBear Thu 17-Sep-09 12:53:41

so the 5% is the peak iyswim, tailing off to about 22 weeks on one side and about 43 weeks on the other side? poisson curve??

AvadaKedavra Thu 17-Sep-09 12:55:03

DC1 overdue by 10 days
DC2 overdue and induced at 16 days

StealthPolarBear Thu 17-Sep-09 12:56:46

here's some stuff about the statistics

Habbibu Thu 17-Sep-09 13:36:47

Oh, cool! Thanks, all - looks like it's pretty complicated. I'm guessing 40+1 for me.

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