Winter 2023

[GloriaSmud]

As we’re a few weeks away from the start of meteorological Winter (1st December), some weather websites have some thoughts on what the weather might have in store for us over the next few months.

The Weather Outlook started very early, in September but October's thoughts are here ~ The Weather Outlook.
And Netweather’s thoughts are here.

Checking in!

<waves> at TokyoSushi

It started raining as we were just about to drop DD3 off for the Guides and Scouts Remembrance Parade this morning but it wasn't just a chilly 4C though, there was a definite wintriness ❄to the rain as well.

Keen to see any snow predictions! Checking in.

I did see a 3 month forecast (not from a source I know) saying wetter but warmer Nov and Dec than average, mainly average Jan but colder and drier than normal Feb. I'm kinda hoping the "above avg temps for Nov/Dec" plays out as I have realised over the weekend that most of my heavy winter gear is in the container of my main gear moving just before or after Christmas, and I left my hiking boots in Ireland as I wouldn't get a chance to go hiking until spring - but forgetting I use those extensively when it is snowy/icy weather underfoot...so I may be looking for some winter boots in Belgium next weekend (no shops open the whole weekend for Armistace day commemorations).

Checking in.

I'd love a proper 2010 style snowmageddon. Had that been predicted in advance or did that just come out of nowhere? Any way, I'm checking in with my fingers crossed and in the meantime I have been reduced to watch snow time lapses on YouTube 😬

Just seen an article on facebook saying we could see snow by the end of the month.
it looked a click baity title though, still feels quite mildish in parts

Like this one? 😁

https://www.birminghammail.co.uk/black-country/met-office-breaks-silence-600-28097718

Desecratedcoconut ~ I can't remember if 2010 was predicted as it's so long ago. I remember though in 2017 (that was the winter that fluctuated between cold with snow/ then average temperatures/weather but ended with 'The Beast from the East' in February 2018), I spotted something (a low pressure system) on a weather chart a week-10 days before the cold weather started, at the beginning of December 2017 but it was faaaaaar away in forecasting land. These things show up but so far ahead, you never know whether they'll come to anything! But if you need to see snow, Rovaniemi in Lapland or Finse in Norway are both nice at this time of year!

ListenLinda ~ I'm getting those coming up on my phone as well, that are forecasting, 'prepare to dig-your-way-out- from- your- front door' amounts of snow! At the moment, the end of the month is looking chilly for Scotland and there might be wintry stuff over hills/higher bits but nothing unusual!

It’s going to be a lovely 13 degrees where I am today, so no snow for us any time soon 😊

Checking in.

Winter 2009/10 was a cold one as well but doesn't get talked about as much as 2010 ~ nice write-up about it here.

And the Wikipedia entry for Winter 2010/11.

I remember that winter because we were rural, up a steep hill so no post. I'd ordered Xmas presents online whi were stuck at the sorting office. I had a 4x4 but was nervous to use it because there were abandoned cars on the way down. My son being a confident driver home for Xmas took me down to the sorting office to claim my post. It was beautiful. We were sledging and snowboarding every day. Youngest built an Igloo in the garden.

I remember -14 temperatures at night. The log burner was going through the night and the heating.

Friends in Rochester USA had it really bad too. Much colder again.

I always remember a few frosty (light) in October. First frost forecast for next week.

hoping for a cold high pressure after snow, so it stays on the ground.

Placemarking.

Anyone remember 1982? I built an igloo in my back garden out of a snowdrift!

@MotherOfCatBoy us too it was the first year we had ferrero Rocher and we used the box to make ice bricks. Wow flashback

@Absinthecracker that’s so cool! Ferrero Rocher ice! (Still love Ferrero Rocher at Christmas).

That winter 2009/10 was it was hell...

It was sort of predicted but the snow came in earlier I think? I texted my bestie to get home from Soho, luckily she listened because transport pretty much stopped after she got home.

wasn't there an earlier one with it taking two weeks for snow to melt? I was in the coldest flat, it was awful. Maybe 2007?

Meanwhile, what are these gale force winds again? Is it another storm?

The models have been playing some amusing/interesting games over the past few days. GFS remains keen to bring us a fairly coldish regime next weekend into the following week, with some snow over hills where precipitation occurs. A risk of ice becoming an issue as there is so much standing water everywhere. It sits way at the bottom of the GEFS ensembles, but they too show a colder regime. ECM, which did not want to play ball with this scenario has today started moving towards a similarish situation.

So cold might be in its way!

82 was huge fun for kids. We'd moved to a cul de sac and had epic snowball fights from behind giant snow barricades.

Oh please please please can we have some cold! Sick of this mild, wet, stormy period. Want quiet and cold.

Since the mists of time, newspapers in England, in Autumn, have revelled in predicting a Hard Winter to Come. Some unknown sage says so, there are lots of berries on the trees, the weather so far has been like [insert Snowy Year here] etc etc etc

I almost understand Chaos Theory One of the things it seems clear about is that you can't predict the weather with any reliability more than a few days ahead. Hence @OhYouBadBadKitten poring over various outputs from repeated re-runs of weather model predictions.

Sick of it being damp. Cold, dry and sunny, pretty please?

People are very keen on analog forecasts (comparing this year to years gone by).

In my experience, the models may be on to something colder coming though we aren't there yet. They keep toying with the idea of bringing cold in. But it is getting into winter, so it would be more surprising if there was no sign of cold at all.

@MotherOfCatBoy me too! Making an igloo in my back garden and then my neighbours is one of my lasting childhood memories!