The Result

[RedToothBrush]

Exit poll in 5 mins.

Pull up a chair.

I'm struggling to find the 13 Reform seats on the breakdown by constituency - I've found two obvious ones (Clacton and Gt Yarmouth) but everywhere else I look, any chance they're given is like 9/10% at most. Is that being counted as a Reform seat in the exit poll? I don't understand how these percentages translate into predictions!

John Curtis's 'health warning' about the exit poll is that he says the margin of error on the Reform seats and SNP seats is much higher than the other seats. The Reform seats are particularly close to call and the SNP vote could be higher than the exit poll suggests.

Hartlepool looks a solid Reform win.

I think they said on TRIP a week or so ago that the election basically hinged on about 130,000 people.

They say the US election will come down to about 600,000 people in the swing states.

I’m not sure they did. I think most people voted in order to get back immigration control from the EU back to Westminster - mission accomplished. Not the same as controlling illegal immigration. Don’t forget sovereignty of law making was also a big factor.

That’s absolutely one of the options. If Conservatives move properly back to the right they could consume Reform and become very popular again. There is clearly huge appetite for a genuine right of centre party, more so than there is for Labour based on this result.

In my area voting Reform was seen as a protest vote by some residents on our estate. They wanted to get rid of the Conservatives but couldnt stomach voting Labour...nowt so queer as folk!

Oh and Hartlepool

The website by constituency linked previously suggests East Hull solid Lab hold, Diana Johnson solid Lab hold, Emma Hardy West Hull 51% Lab hold & 49% could go to Reform.

Yes, I wrote it wrong way round. Too tired, and I’d been thinking it might be Hull East that goes. Surprised Hull West is in doubt, given they’ve been shipping supporters elsewhere all week.

Yes I'm in south east Kent. I will be very pleasantly surprised if Labour have done well around here.

Rory Stewart is a waffler, like Farage. He talks a good game but I don’t get the impression he’d be good under pressure or possess the level of attention to detail required for effective governance. He’s very much a - “say the thing that people want to hear” type like Farage.

Looking at the Sky predictor we will be stuck with the useless Tory MP again. Sigh.

How do they imagine Reform would make that financially possible? The reality is they'd achieve it by removing employment rights.

Many, many reasons! But the SNP have made a shambles of the Scottish Government. The Lib Dems have some really good education policies in Scotland. The Lib Dems want to remain part of the UK, as do I. The Lib Dems want to continue to invest in Trident, the SNP wish to scrap it. Overall, I generally agree with their policies more than I do the SNP and feel really fed up with how they’ve preformed.

Not really. Decisions are made by those who turn up. Those who expressed a preference gave Labour a big majority.

I am aware of several people who voted Brexit who thought the effect would be fewer Muslims. I don't think people understood that fewer EU migrants would mean more Chinese, Indian etc migrants.

I hope that labour can get these asylum seekers processed and either resettled or deported within a much shorter time frame than currently. I don't think I'd be keen on groups of aimless adult men hanging around in my town either, whatever their origin. And obviously it's pretty rubbish for the asylum seekers too.

Is Laura Kuenssberg still looking pissed off on the BBC?

Reform's target seats in order:
1 Barnsley North
2 Hartlepool
3 Barnsley South
4 Doncaster North
5 Easington
6 South Shields
7 Rotherham
8 Normanton and Hemsworth
9 Blaenau Gwent and Rhymney
10 Houghton and Sunderland South
11 Caerphilly
12 Hull East
13 Wigan
14 Pontypridd
15 Neath and Swansea East
16 Washington and Gateshead South
17 Pontefract, Castleford and Knottingley
18 Jarrow and Gateshead East
19 Toerfaen
20 Hull West and Haltemprice

20 is too close to call on the exit.
But 12 is looking Labour as is 10 and 4.

I found a few which are "too close to call" so they are putting those somewhere

First result expected in 10 mins - Blythe.

Nigel Farage is already one of the most influential politicians of this century, and he's never been elected as an MP.

Through UKIP, he maneuvered the tories into holding a referendum on the EU. Look how that turned out. And he did it without needing to win lots of seats. He's not stupid, and he knows how to wield influence.

I hate the man, but I think we underestimate him at our peril.

Amazing

I think tactical voting was huge this time round