Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Hi Red. And thanks as always for your insights.

Imagine my surprise, when I saw my local constituency ballot paper today, and my 'local' Brexit party candidate lives in Australia! I'm sure we used to have a rather vociferous Australia living Brexiteer on these threads a while back...

Weary pmk.

Thanks red.

Here you go.

Britain elects @britainelects
The Brexit Party is currently polling 3-5% nationally, but among the seats where they are standing, they're currently claiming double or even triple that.

Well yes... They are standing in half the seats nationally...

Pmk with appreciation

.

Deeply depressed, but I believe this poll is probably right. My office is 50% leave, 50% remain. (not counting my boss who lives in another office). But the other remainer (i.e. not me) is going to vote Tory because Jeremy Corbyn. She's a nurse by background, still working in the NHS in a non-clinical capacity. She sees the pressure on the system every single day. She's still going to vote Tory.

This country will get the government it deserves.

PMK thanks again.
I’m preserving my sanity by not believing the polls.

Weren't the polls all wrong this far out last time?

Or was that different methodology?

If it is a Tory majority I just hope we in NI shake off the spectre of the DUP madness in promoting leave and we get special status.

Pmk. We're still two weeks out. Let's see how many undecideds there are, and how they break down.

Hopefully Molly Scott Cato giving a not-so-subtle ODFOD to Brexit MEP Robert Rowland might raise a smile:

m.youtube.com/watch?v=gxeKSAryCeA

My DH is not voting. I would normally disapprove but I can see why. Tbh I am relieved he isn't going to vote Tory. Tory MP has huge majority here anyway even though no one likes her so it's not like he can affect anything.

If we lived a mile up the road we'd be in a super marginal so that's annoying. A 12 year old Tory in coloured chinos is standing in that belweather, (p?)
The only thing that might protect the local MP is the sizeable Muslim population who swung it last time.

Not one single leaver or Tory in my 'office'!

But who cares what teachers think...?

I guess the radiator is on

The constituency in Glasgow where the Conservative was suspended for anti-Muslim comments starts just a few streets away from where I am. What a numpty - the constituency has a high proportion of Asian Muslims within it (and was previously represented by a Labour Muslim) and is well integrated.

But she never had a chance of getting in anyway, with or without official CCHQ support. I hope and trust that Alison Thewliss gets back in (she's always easily identifiable in the HoC as she loves yellow outfits)

PMK, I’m inclined to agree pointy & fading I truly hope that DUP influence does dissipate considerably 🤞🏻

PMK. (thanks, Red)
A big Tory majority would leave me really depressed - literally
I looked at the Tactical voting sites for my area (Berwick upon Tweed).
It seems Lib Dem is the way to go but it is not clear.
The place I left (Scottish Borders) it seems the only way to keep BJ out is to vote SNP.

I'm waiting on my postal voting papers to come through still.

Leaver dp is voting labour just for me in a marginal seat. Not keen on corbyn but likes many of the policies. He's never really been very politically engaged but over the last 3 years I've managed to reeducate him

This country will get the government it deserves.

Well yes... hard not to think that after three years of overwhelming anti brexit facts and countless evidence of Tory lies.
I lost hope once I realised Labour weren't going to get rid of Corbyn and when the fucking Libdems handed Boris his election.

Who is this man on Andrew Neil BBC2 now?

My red button tells me it's Antiques Road Trip!

PMK and thanks Red

Thanks, red 💐

I heard many years ago that a safe working majority after a GE is 40 seats

• to allow within a 5-year term for MPs rebelling on key bills, dying, being caught with their trousers down

So in any GE, this is my entirely personal scalometer of overall majorities:

1-9 knife-edge majority (PM squeaky bum, with another GE within a year)
10-30 narrow majority (PM nervous but relieved)
31-49 working majority (PM relaxed)
50-70 substantial majority (PM party hero)
70-99 large majority (PM has multi-orgasmic party conf)
100-149 landslide (PM creates paradigm shift)
150+ Armageddon (PM an eternal party god)

Westministenders' Abbreviations:

https://www.mumsnet.com/Talk/eureferendumm2016/3492426-Westministenders-Abbreviation?msgid=84503730

Pmk

Thanks Red! The Best for Britain MRP is what I was clumsily referring to earlier - thanks for explaining! Let's see what 10pm brings, although I think we already know 😑