Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

Treat the impoverished Tory voter like someone with a mental illness – be kind, be gentle, and know that they need help for their own benefit and for the benefit of everyone around them.

Tiddle I really liked that article...it made a tonne of sense. Tory voters have a kind of Stockholm Syndrome towards their abusive government.🤔 Very interesting theory. I really liked the part about not appealing to their minds because they aren't using them.😂😂😂 How true, how true.

Mother I felt so much optimism too...but now just feel at the mercy of absolute gobshites who haven't the brains they were born with.

Does the Cummings thing means he resigned or didn't want to run the election campaign -as that is now that Australian bloke running it?

All the fake fact checking website, doctored/ edited Kier Starmer clip and the fake Labour manifesto come from the Aussie bloke's team?

*I know, Fading.

I'm ... sad.* ☹️

The next five years are going to be the absolute worst.

Why are people falling for it! Bloody why!

God, I'm exhausted.
I'm off to bed.

They're falling for it because too many "loudmouth" sources are telling them the same thing over and over.

I am originally from the North East, ex mining community and visit there often, I've said on here before people underestimate the fury people feel at the thought of their vote being overturned. I think the idea of a second referendum has turned many against Labour and it will cost them heavily.

This is so depressing-5 more years of Tory destruction, really?

Critical thinking is practically a dead art it seems.

Waves frantically at feellikeanalien - were in the same most Northern English city, despairing at the nonsense being enacted 300 miles away?

have you decided which way you are voting yet? it's tricky here, I think?

I read that Cummings had resigned too. On Guardian live feed about an hour ago.

Haven’t seen it mentioned anywhere else though.

I honestly thought most people would have awakened up to the real facts that leaving the EU is a massive mistake we will absolutely regret. It's so obvious.

I just cannot for the life of me understand why people still want this. They MUST be aware of how bad an idea it is unless they've been living in a cave.😭😭

Motherof4; he seems great! I bet his majority will be significantly reduced though. Have to take comfort where we can. I am going to go cold turkey on politics if there is a Tory landslide, really got to protect myself from stress. I am going to be delivering leaflets tomorrow, can’t do canvassing if people would be hostile, don’t mind disagreement, but hate aggression. It is all shit.

Here's an insight into the Tory campaign team. I didn't realise they imported the Aussie and two NZ helpers who are digital experts who digital experts, who engineered victory for Scott Morrison in Oz earlier this year.

They won by spotting issues that gained traction during the campaign then plugged them through targeted social media.

It's probably been discussed before but I hadn't twigged all three successful strategists were imported lock stock and barrel.

I wonder how they got work visas if they're over the visa age limit and don't have relatives?

www.standard.co.uk/comment/comment/tories-are-banking-on-electoral-magic-from-a-campaign-wizard-of-oz-a4281246.html

I agree violetparis
I've been doing some work in the Sunderland region which is really impoverished in parts and people are angry that they are not being listened to. It is not that poor communities are 'too stupid to see' that they will suffer disproportionately under 5 more years of Tories.
It's that their anger at their original Brexit vote / voice being ignored AGAIN in Westminster is stronger than critical re-thinking when new facts have emerged about the reality of Brexit.

Violet yes that's my experience in the NE too.

Its all about Brexit.
It's definitely different to 2017 - then they didn't really see Brexit as being in jeopardy. Since then there's been so much fury over the MPs blocking the deal .....now Johnson with his 'get Brexit done' and 'oven ready deal' bullshit is exactly what they want to hear. If challenged on the state of the NHS for example they just say 'get Brexit done and then we'll deal with it.' It's become everything.

as I honestly think a sizeable part of the original Leave vote was a massive 'Fuck You' to 'the Establishment' from sections of society / areas who had felt excluded and not listened to for soooo long.
the fact that that has been harnessed by the Tories and will be used to futher subdue and damage those people is too sad for words.

So can anyone say what the equivalent 2017 poll that's being released tonight?

s I honestly think a sizeable part of the original Leave vote was a massive 'Fuck You' to 'the Establishment' from sections of society / areas who had felt excluded and not listened to for soooo long.

And now the original Leave vote has been hijacked by the metamorphosed new Tories in a massive 'Fuck You' to those very sections of society / areas who had felt excluded and have not been listened to for soooo long.

The difference with the voters who were Labour Leave voters as opposed to when they were Labour voters is precisely because it was tribal to vote Labour. They didn't think about it. But they thought about the referendum. And now, with Corbyn, and Labour not explicitly backing the referendum result, they are questioning why they are voting Labour.

The same thing is happening with Tory Remainers. But not in those numbs. Again the ruthless desire to win, to keep hold of their money etc wins out.

Numbers not numbs ffs.

Stephen Bush
@stephenkb

Ahead of tonight's MRP: why you should take it with a pinch of salt (and why it could change the result just by existing):
Why you should take YouGov's MRP with a pinch of salt
It's just one poll - and its existence could, in of itself, change the result.

One underappreciated phenomenon in British politics is that the Conservative ability to win big majorities runs through a set of seats that will vote Liberal Democrat if they think that the Tories will win a majority anyway:

Several Conservatives in the Con-Lib battleground have told me that their preferred option from MRP is a small majority as they think media narrative of a storming Tory win that was part of why colleagues who won in 2015 lost in 2017:

www.newstatesman.com/politics/elections/2019/11/why-you-should-take-yougovs-mrp-pinch-salt

My class of students (adults in lifelong learning, all of whom are unemployed and impoverished) are desperate for Brexit. I was arguing against it last week and one young woman, a single parent, became quite angry at me because I refused to concur with her stance that the EU is keeping us against our will, that things will be great when we leave....but she wouldn't budge an inch either. Just would not listen. Sad is definitely the word.