Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I can't believe people are actually going to vote for the lying, damaging, cruel, heartless, revolting, repugnant Tories in absolute droves

They see the homeless on the streets, their children struggling in the gig economy, low wages, the NHS struggling, schools being underfunded, shops empty on the high street...and still they vote for the Conservatives to get Brexit done and fuck everyone else.

I think the answer to that Fading is yes they have lost their fecking minds

I was just on Facebook - and someone posted an"anonymous"poll in a local group, on who they were going to vote for. At the moment Tory is way in the lead. The thing that shocked me - as it's not anonymous- when you look at the people saying they are going to vote Tory - they are all late 30's, 40's Ann's maybe some early 50's. I find that deeply disturbing and upsetting

I feel angry at these people. But also afraid for them.

I was thinking last night that another way people justify voting/thinking Tory is buying into the idea that people in difficulty in life are looking to "blame other people" for their situation. I think that idea plays well with a wide section of the population.

I don't feel afraid for them. I feel afraid for the rest of us.

I can't see a way of seeing any bright side about a Tory majority. Them "dealing with their own shit " or it only being for 5 years. The damage they will do in that time will make Cameron/Osborne austerity seem like nothing.

The thing that shocked me - as it's not anonymous- when you look at the people saying they are going to vote Tory - they are all late 30's, 40's Ann's maybe some early 50's. I find that deeply disturbing and upsetting

The polls show there is definitely a disparate between younger people and older people in their views

I do wonder whether there will be a 'youthquake'.

Pmk

It is unbelievable that as a nation we are collectively that stupid

The USA...Hold my beer

(But TBF, Hillary won the popular vote)

Thank you Red as ever.

It really will be unbelievable stupidity, won't it? How much evidence do these absolute arseholes need before they see just how CRAP the Tory party is? If they were smacked round the head with austerity and cuts and a shit NHS before, they are about to be totally flattened!! Unfortunately these tools are dragging the rest of us down with them.🤬🤬🤬

Sorry for the bad language...really pissed off tonight at these thick, gullible dimwits.

@FadingStar there was something on that idea shared by a friend a few days ago. Goes on the idea of 'Stockholm syndrome'

unquiet.world/2019/11/03/why-the-impoverished-are-still-voting-tory-and-how-to-help-them/

Really hope you're right Mother. Time I took out the novenas and pray for a miracle.

@RedToothBrush thanks for the original link.

YouGov has some fascinating stuff on their website, for example from a few days ago yougov.co.uk/topics/politics/articles-reports/2019/11/22/general-election-who-will-win-youth-vote picking up on question posedby @chomalungma

Turnout likely to be key. If it is the usual demographic suspects then a Tory majority could well happen. The other thing is the numbers who are not registered to vote, not sure if the recent upsurge in registrations has really made a big enough dent in that. Others may have more info.

Pmk

A despairing PMK

I wonder if people are so used to the idea that the NHS is in crisis that the genuine threat is now not hitting home?

As far as I can remember (which admittedly is not very far - late nineties, maybe) there have been stories about the 'failure' of the NHS and yet it continues. They may think that this is more of the same.

Plus the idea that Labour are fiscally reckless - which, at a glance, is supported by their manifesto (I'm not agreeing with it, BTW, but just taking things at face value, which a lot of people do). I know some people who think that the increase in food banks and homelessness is due to the last Labour government. God knows where they've been for the last decade or so. Probably not in a position for either to be a threat.

Cummings resigned?

I'm in a targeted seat in the North East and the rumoured poll wouldn't surprise me sadly.

My constituency has been Labour forever but there were 500 votes in it in 2017 and I'm convinced it's going to go Tory for the first time. I had to leave my local Facebook group as it was post after post of hate and vitriol for Labour, and specifically the local MP for 'betraying' the leave voters, ie voting against the deals.

This is a constituency with ex-mining villages and towns in decline; it had no food banks in 2010 and now has 7. I wanted to canvas for Labour but couldn't face the door step abuse. Urgh it's so depressing

I know, Fading.

I'm ... sad. ☹️

Pmk

People are voting Tory because of "Get Brexit Done". And Corbyn being a Marmite leader.
We can wring our hands together as much as we like but Brexit will be the reason people vote the way they do. And only Johnson can deliver it. Put that through the prism of FPTP and their support looks bigger than it actually is.