Westminstenders: Massive Rightwing Plot?

[RedToothBrush]

Tonight 10pm

YouGov MRP.

First big poll

Rumour is that it shows a big tory majority.

This would fit with two MRP polls that are already out if accurate.

Datapraxis is suggesting a Tory majority of 48.

Best for Britain (Pro remain) is suggesting a majority of 57.

www.newscientist.com/article/2224783-what-is-mrp-and-can-it-predict-the-result-of-the-uk-general-election/
What is MRP and can it predict the result of the UK general election?

It stands for multi-level regression and post-stratification. Its a polling method which uses demographic data to work out how people will vote. YouGov used it to accurately predict the 2017 result and the method was used to predict the 2016 US election.

I think we take it for granted that most mumsnet users are reasonably well educated, and engaged with politics and current affairs. I read an account in the last couple of days, about a hospital I the North, where most staff refused to meet Boris. But not all, several nurses and allied professionals did with no qualms.

Check out the comments on the Sun, Mail, Express or your local Facebook group.

Plus there is still a massive divide between North and South.

It's that their anger at their original Brexit vote / voice being ignored AGAIN in Westminster is stronger than critical re-thinking when new facts have emerged about the reality of Brexit.

room yes that's it exactly. It's why I get a bit uncomfortable with the 'turkeys voting for Christmas' stuff and blame being placed on those poorer communities who want to vote Tory now, because it's a protest vote at not being listened to for so long. Just of course the biggest irony is that Johnson doesn't give a fuck about poor working class towns in the north. But they see all politicians as corrupt anyway, it's just this particular one will deliver the one thing they want.

I'm much more angry at the 'I'm all right jack' middle class Tory voters like those posting on the Tory threads on here.

lonelyplanetmum
YES. It's beyond horrible.
both my elderly parents voted Brexit, both working class, left school at 14, on the breadline all their lives, yet both intelligent people.
My Dad because he feels alienated, lost his job at 55 (Wapping) and never worked again, despite many attempts. It broke him.
My Mother because she is racist and lives in Kent and 'can't stand all the foreigners coming over here and taking all our British jobs'.
So, both types of Brexit stereotype, sadly. They will both vote BJ.

Several Conservatives in the Con-Lib battleground have told me that their preferred option from MRP is a small majority as they think media narrative of a storming Tory win that was part of why colleagues who won in 2015 lost in 2017:

That's funny- I was thinking earlier this evening that the MRP leading to Tory majority headlines has advantages. It breeds last minute complacency and pride. And we all know what pride comes before...

Yes on the Tory thread there was a poster who couldn't understand why ANYONE earning a brilliant salary like £100,000 would ever vote Labour. 😖😭 Just so revoltingly selfish.

US want no Brexit

Ha! The only BJ fan amongst my recent learners (and to be fair, he’s registered to vote and intends to do so) is the one who thought that smoking weed at lunchtime would improve his performance on his mock Maths test.
Happily the real thing is before lunch.

*Aroomwithoutadoor
*

My FiL also lives in Kent, is also racist and 'can't stand all the brown non EU people coming over here and taking all our British jobs'.

On the tragedy point the guardian columnist John Harris did a bit of filming in Guildford---- already posted on these threads. It concluded with a man using a food bank who was intending to vote Tory. You just couldn't make it up.

m.youtube.com/watch?v=qPbU2sxzGO4

They want No Deal brexit

ffauxlivia - yes, those who feel no-one is listening to them are voting for people who have no intention of listening to them. And who want to remove/make difficult access to legal mechanisms of 'listening to them' - limiting legal aid, ECJ, judicial review.

Totally agree Room and ffaux, it's sad.
When Labour moved towards a second referendum I felt a sense of dread that it would not end well, I always accepted the result and wanted a compromise, now we're likely to have a hard Brexit and Boris as PM for five years.

t concluded with a man using a food bank who was intending to vote Tory.

I remember working with someone in 1992 who had loads of dental problems and was complaining a lot that he couldn't get a dentist and was having to pay privately from a low wage. So, he was voting Tory. People have always been able to disconnect voting choices from actuality.

Thanks red

Hopefully the polls will shift nearer the time like last time.

Colouringinpro- Really interesting doc that so does Trump feel he has political capital at home going into advanced trade negos with us in 2020? And No deal would be a pre requisite to that.

Two problems with this:

1. Ireland /NI- missing that up doesn't give political capital in the US. They care more about Ireland than we do surely?

1. Surely the US motivation should be what's in the interests of US trade long term as a whole -not the political advantages for Trump in 2020

* *

It's that their anger at their original Brexit vote / voice being ignored AGAIN in Westminster is stronger than critical re-thinking when new facts have emerged about the reality of Brexit.

Why should we be surprised that voters who weren’t convinced by the “facts” before the referendum would be no more receptive to the “facts” now, when many of the dire predictions before the referendum didn’t come to pass?

Several Conservatives in the Con-Lib battleground have told me that their preferred option from MRP is a small majority as they think media narrative of a storming Tory win that was part of why colleagues who won in 2015 lost in 2017:

As the adage goes, polls are as much about shaping opinion more than quantifying it. If I were a Tory I wouldn’t want it to show a big majority.

Cummings blogged earlier that the election was much closer than is generally believed... I think that probably more likely to be minds games from him than an actual belief. He will know all about the perils of complacent voters. It’s what helped his campaign win in 2016!

Not looking forward to 10pm, but PMK anyway. Here is my ridiculous dog:

But they see all politicians as corrupt anyway

That thinking swept Trump to power.

Trump supporters asked about how they feel about him breaking the law:-

"Everyone breaks the law!" witt great big grins all over their stupid faces.

Yay yolo that made me cheerier!

This poll ?

FadingStar I know plenty of people in £100K + voting Labour. It's worth being taxed a bit more to have a society you want to live in.

People are totally bewildering aren't they.

Love yolodog.

Yes Cummings is clearly trying to scare the old Tories into still turning out for the new party.

However as he's no longer running the show surely it would be a feather in his personal cap if his successors fail compared to him iyswim?

Cummings seems confident of victory in this Steve Bray clip though. His hat and coat are ok but is it quite cold enough for the hat yet in London. Shallow I know but I'm not a fan of the trousers for someone who has shaped our destiny. I expect destiny shapers to wear more serious trousers. 18 mins to go.

Oh this is the clip where Cummings seems confident - all mouth and odd trousers.

www.theneweuropean.co.uk/top-stories/anti-brexit-activist-steve-bray-confronts-dominic-cummings-again-1-6393735