Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Scotland.
Zoe data for my area (central belt) up significantly (numbers about 120% of last week), having been dropping earlier in the week. This reflects what I've seen on the ground (extensive spread in schools spreading to parents - I'm one of the unlucky ones).

There’s also been a sudden sharp increase in Zoe in my area in central London after a period of falling. Curious to learn what that is about , and if it’s born out in the case data in the weeks to come..

Thanks boys.

Thanks, Boys

Thanks, boys.

Thanks boys

Thanks boys.

Well there’s one more positive near the Kettering area (not actually in it) tonight, DS is positive.

Govt (website) finally ditches “3 main symptoms” test booking requirement:

inews.co.uk/news/pcr-covid-test-change-online-ordering-form-1219249?ITO=newsnow&fbclid=IwAR3QA2iZ-iLpF833X84FjDp1JrvhOZEM2Y2YtBSEGak-tJaIc4U47M2BXu0

The last paragraph of that article made me guffaw quite loudly.

The main thing is the definition of continuous cough : I do wish they would make it clearer. The girl I teach who has now tested positive was cleared form being sent home last week after I flagged her to HOY as he 'didn't hear her cough' when he was in her lesson for 10 minutes. Continuous really is not how everyone imagines.

So on tbe continous coigh thing, I made DH test after he coughed 6 times during a 50 minute programe- positive, so I think more than once or twice in 20 minutes.

This is the official line on it

coughing a lot for more than an hour, or 3 or more coughing episodes in 24 hours

I mean, what's 'a lot'? What's an 'episode'??

Anecdotally having seen both the original variant (myself and DD), Alpha and Delta I think the cough has changed. Back in March 2020 it was an awful cough where you literally couldnt stop coughing and it was difficult to get your breath. It was awful and a very specific sounding cough.

DS though I think cough every now and then just one or two coughs and that was it. Alpha was somewhere inbetween.

It definitely needs changing Delta is far more sore throat, headache than before

38000 today. Highest in a while I think.

9th September @NannyAndJohn so depends whether you call 2.5 weeks awhile.

Last 4 Mondays have been
27/9 37,960
20/9 36,100
13/9 30,825
6/9 41,192

So I am not sure what point you are trying to make. A back to school was always on the cards.

Hospitalizations are still going down and deaths are looking stable

And only 9% up on prior Monday (for England - other nations are all at different stages of the pandemic curve). The pace of growth is de-accelerating.

UK may hit 40k on Wednesday and Thursday this week but by the end of the week the tide is likely to turn. I initially thought it may take longer but it looks like this week might be the final “local maximum” before the “back to school” wave in England finally runs out of steam.

In a Covid world 2.5 weeks is most certainly a while!

After trundling along in limbo for the past week or so it seems like we're on the rise again.

Yes, we are on the rise - as expected. Endemic equilibrium does not mean that cases may never go up. They can and they will - but pre-existing immunity in the population will prevent exponential growth over a prolonged period of time.

It is pretty clear that we are not going to see 7k hospitalisations in October (as implied by some of the SAGE models). Even the “base case” of 2k (for England only) is very far from being a “realistic possibility”.

Well, I hope you're right @wintertravel1980.

Presumably, the people currently infected in England are predominantly very young, and therefore not needing hospital admission very often.

Fingers crossed that we get the boosters out before immunity wanes too much in older groups and we get the right strain of flu in the flu vaccines.

Fingers crossed also re the vulnerable parents and teachers of the many schoolkids who are going down with covid.

Both my dc have had/have covid. One didn't have a cough at all and one didn't for the first 5 days then coughed a few times a day.

Both felt tired and had nasty headaches, one also very sick nausea.

Giving a focus on specimen date in England 9243 cases reported today with a spec date of yesterday. As compared with 9591 equivalent last week.

I would not read too much into a first day of reporting. However Saturday’s number of cases is only around 5% up after two day’s reporting.

cases are as ever interesting however of more import and still subject to, quoting from the dashboard, a major incident with the data system used by NHS England are the health metrics. The seven day average for England was on a clear downward trajectory for both admissions and number in hospital for the last figures reported. If that has continued once the data collection issue is resolved then a further positive sign.

By spec date taking the last seven days, recognising the last few not fully reported 50.7% of cases in the 0-19 age bands. With the 10-14s almost 28%, and both 5-9s and 15-19s around 10.4%.

This is for England. Where the 10-14s account for 6.1% of the population.

Yes, we are on the rise - as expected. Endemic equilibrium does not mean that cases may never go up. They can and they will - but pre-existing immunity in the population will prevent exponential growth over a prolonged period of time.
Can I ask how you know this and what you mean by a prolonged period of time? This is after all a data thread. I understand that vaccines have slowed growth in the vaccinated, but there are large numbers of unvaccinated who may not have pre-existing immunity. I can only imagine that the Kettering and Corby issue could well happen in many other places over the next few weeks. We may see sharp rises in a few places at a time or we may see a sharp rise in a large number of places at once.

Cases in women in their 30s are much higher currently than men. Mothers? Health care workers?

Cases in women in their 30s are much higher currently than men. Mothers? Health care workers

Pregnancy many pregnany women refused the vaccine.

Can I ask how you know this and what you mean by a prolonged period of time? This is after all a data thread.

Prolonged period of time would be several weeks in a row, with hospitalisation numbers reaching levels that could overwhelm NHS.

You are right - I cannot predict the future with certainty but the trend so far indicates that case numbers can no longer balloon into stratosphere. The rate of growth is currently slowing down.

I have attached the screenshot showing how the case trajectory has evolved over past 2 months. Yes, cases have recently gone up but 11.7 million children going back to school with no bubbles/self-isolation requirements were not able to influence the transmission as much as the Euro 2020 fans. We are still running significantly lower than the July peak. With the slowing down rate of growth it is less likely that the Delta pandemic gets out of control (unless we see new variants or pandemic flu).