Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

This was mentioned in The Guardian article upthread. The BBC has also reported it but with a significantly different angle. Essentially, it's prevalence.

We're testing double (14/1000) than France (guess what: 7/1000), yet our numbers are not only double theirs.

and also: "Britain’s Covid infection rate is one of the worst in the world, data reveals"
they treat this as if it was new data, not something you could look at on a daily basis on gov dashboard, ourworldindata, worldometer,....
this is not journalism

I suppose if most of their readership don’t follow Covid figures at all, it IS news!

Figure counters are getting slack with their timings these days

Masks aren't the complete answer; so they don't eliminate covid and the levels can still be high (but might be higher without them).

The upward slope for infections in years 7-11 is quite steep and doesn't show much sign of plateauing yet unfortunately, and also is a week or 2 out of date, isn't it?

Thanks for the recap of Indie Sage, I haven't caught up with them for a while.

@isthismineshine

Figure counters are getting slack with their timings these days

So who's leaving so are they all at

*do

PHE/“UK Health Security agency” tweeted the numbers a while back. 35,577 cases, 127 deaths.

England’s cases are up 2% week on week on the reported basis. I still expect the tide to turn by the end of the week (Sunday?) but I guess we will see.

If around 50% of cases are children at the moment and the trajectory of the graph at least for teens is steeply upwards, are we likely to see the tide turning yet?

I know vaccination of younger teens has been approved but do we know if it has actually started? I am the parent of one and haven’t heard anything. I know there would be a time lag but it would at least help reduce rates in high schools.

They have started, yes. Ours are in two weeks.

It seems patchy at best - a bit like the adult vaxx programme was at first, maybe for some of the same reasons?

If around 50% of cases are children at the moment and the trajectory of the graph at least for teens is steeply upwards, are we likely to see the tide turning yet?

ONS survey is about 10-14 days out of date.

Based on the latest case numbers, the rate of growth of cases in children has been slowing down over the past week. The numbers are still going up but we are now seeing single digit increases - not 20% from the week ago.

We are also running out of places with low levels of acquired immunity. South West is still at risk though (Boardmasters closed some of the gap but the attack rate there remains relatively low in comparison to other regions).

Here is the study that estimates historic attack rates by region:

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-september-2021/

Based on the latest release, the % for London is 54% (vs 25% in South West and 26% in South East).

Hopefully vaccination will help reduce the number of children liable to get infected, quite soon.

Is there any update on a realistic estimate of the IFR? Looking at various stats it seems to range from 0.5% to 2%.

Hopefully vaccination will help reduce the number of children liable to get infected, quite soon

Unless covid is considerably less transmissible that we've been led to believe, I don't think there will be many left to be infected. Effectiveness after 1 dose of Pfizer is 60% symptomful covid after 4 weeks I think (probably more up to date numbers around, and could differ in this age group!) So that's not going to make much difference compared to 4% per week (and likely it's only that low because so many have already had it given Scotland's 10%)

But how long does immunity last, especially as we start travelling more and maybe get more variants?

The evidence for infection acquired immunity in the UK is considerably stronger than the evidence for vaccine acquired immunity. Obviously we have no firm data on any of it.

Remember Pfizer claim that their vaccine requires a booster due to waning to below 50% effective after only 5 months.

www.northamptonchron.co.uk/health/coronavirus/unreal-one-in-16-kettering-children-test-positive-for-covid-in-a-week-as-school-cases-rise-3404110?fbclid=IwAR0dx7Rg2u4zDe3fPg_EPu9z-83Uis3NKNatz4M4aZLuLmq4mK7JpKAnZPY
Near me - 1:16 10-14 yos test positive just last week. And that’s the ones who test.

And here we are - cases in England have dropped by more than 4% Saturday on Saturday on the reported basis.

"Back to school" wave (with 8.9 million children starting the school year) might have peaked this past Monday at the post-Boardmasters level and nowhere near the Euro 2020 absolute peak.

Of course, some places have been hit very hard (like Kettering) and yes, it is possible that we may see future outbreaks in other areas with low immunity (e.g. Suffolk, Devon or Dorset, to name a few) but the uncontrolled exponential growth is unlikely to resume (unless immunity wanes, we face new variants or have to deal with particular bad flu this winter).

Promising sounding simple new test which reliably tells you whether you’re infectious :

www.telegraph.co.uk/news/2021/10/02/works-like-flower-bud-new-covid-test-could-end-need-self-isolate/?fbclid=IwAR2qoGfwcVwuuMYtZENANNTwJ5tdBgshh_tHmV--baYAE9RDC4jjXRoZXS8

@JanglyBeads we are not far from Kettering. To be honest I'm surprised it's not higher. At DD's school there are 12 kids out of 38 off with it in just one week in one year group.

@wintertravel1980

Here is the study that estimates historic attack rates by region:

www.mrc-bsu.cam.ac.uk/now-casting/nowcasting-and-forecasting-29th-september-2021/

Based on the latest release, the % for London is 54% (vs 25% in South West and 26% in South East).

This is interesting, thank you. Do you know whether this data includes people with reinfections? Unfortunately the phe data doesn't. So (putting vaccine immunity aside) areas that previously had very high case rates might be looking lower now because reinfection cases aren't being counted in their figures. It doesn't mean they really are as low as they look. If more people had prior infections there will be a higher proportion of reinfections.

Unfortunately the phe data doesn't

Re-infection is still largely irrelevant in UK data, assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/1022201/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w39.pdf

5.9million infections in England, only 45,119 possible re-infections, it's inconsequential to the data.

Now obviously it could be that people not identified in that very first wave are the ones getting re-infected, but I don't think there's any chance of people infected from Christmas onwards to being re-infected in any numbers, it's just too unlikely for people who are likely to test this time, not been likely to test last time.