Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

This bit will be helpful to clinicians surely?

*Over one third of patients were diagnosed with at least one of the long Covid symptoms between three and six months after their Covid-19 illness. The severity of the illness, age and sex affected the incidence and profile of long Covid symptoms. Similar symptoms were seen in people after influenza but they occur and co-occur less commonly.”

Patients admitted to hospital were more likely to suffer cognitive problems like brain fog and fatigue compared to people who did not need to be admitted, and people who did not need hospital care were more likely to have headaches than those who needed to be admitted.*

None really. I go to R4 over all of them - More or Less etc, experts speaking, more in-depth and better at analysing numbers. Takes out the emotive headline rush.

I’d be interested to know if any studies have seen a change post vaccine

[quote Piggywaspushed]This is details of the schools survey mentioned :

www.theguardian.com/education/2021/sep/28/12-of-english-pupils-report-continuing-covid-symptoms-weeks-after-infection[/quote]
To be honest I think these studies are completely meaningless without a control group and I wish the media would stop reporting them- it just fuels misunderstanding and fear.

Even with a control group the way they have been interpreted is very suspect given the very high proportions of people apparently reporting these symptoms within the non- infected group.

It's a longitudinal survey. Not all surveys have control groups. It's not a medical trial.

In young people in particular the control group would include lots of people who have actually had Covid.

Yes, Marsha , there was a study which found the vaccine reduced your chance of experiencing LC and reduced the severity/length of lingering symptoms.

The methodology of this research was more thorough and reliable than previous LC. I don't understand why we are pulling back from that. It is based on an actual study and actual follow up of a group of people who definitely had covid. This is not the way previous LC studies have been conducted. That's why it is useful and more worthy of attention.

Longitudinal studies should ideally also have control groups. I do think it’s essential for this subject, given how common these types of symptoms are generally, and for various other reasons.

Imagine, for example, if they did a similar study for symptoms post vaccine. you’d most likely get significant proportions of people reporting various symptoms (just look at the threads that pop up here constantly) . If the media reported on these studies in the same way they do for the “long covid” ones, there would be absolute outrage (and rightly so). It would have a devastating impact on vaccine confidence and uptake. They don’t do this thankfully, so why is it ok with long covid?

A survey that looks at terms that can’t be precisely defined is always going to be problematic to control for. Plenty of useful information and insights can be garnered from studies that identify patterns of correlation and association.

because bizawit it is a Covid study looking at the illness itself which is now picking up reports of prolonged symptoms from that group.

A vaccine system would presumably be part of a medical trial.

I am presuming the control group per se is the secondary data that exists on flu. What they found was more reporting of these symptoms post covid than form flu, which is fairly significant.

Plenty of useful information and insights can be garnered from studies that identify patterns of correlation and association

Absolutely. But not so much in this context imv. Particularly given the way the data is being analysed and reported. As I said I think the situation would be viewed very differently if this methodology was replicated, but for post vaccine symptoms rather than post covid infection.

@Piggywaspushed

because bizawit it is a Covid study looking at the illness itself which is now picking up reports of prolonged symptoms from that group.

A vaccine system would presumably be part of a medical trial.

I am presuming the control group per se is the secondary data that exists on flu. What they found was more reporting of these symptoms post covid than form flu, which is fairly significant.

Sure but what if this methodology was replicated to explore reports of prolonged symptoms following vaccination? (Eg to investigate whether the vaccine caused ongoing problems for people).

Anyhoo, this is NIHR is anyone is interested:

www.nihr.ac.uk/news/196-million-awarded-to-new-research-studies-to-help-diagnose-and-treat-long-covid/28205

I think when we see new research papers we should think 'oh this is new/ interesting/reassuring/worrying' etc.. 'Maybe that will be helpful'. It is certainly worth interrogating them further but this one seems pretty reliable, unbiased, and helpful.

this one looks interesting :

www.nihr.ac.uk/news/com-cov-alternating-vaccine-dose-study-expands-to-12-to-16-year-olds/28696

Case numbers very slightly up
From last week, but pretty flat still..

@Bizawit do you know what they were reported as this time last week please?

They seem to change them retrospectively

Maybe I should start writing them down

I write them down. Low tech.

Weds 22nd: 33,560 positives, 166 deaths reported.

On second thoughts, I'm not 100% of those figures as I was away and not sure whether or not I got them from the reports on the news, which will be the same as the gov.uk dashboard on the day, or retrospectively from the dashboard, which, as you say, seems to change.

[quote isthismineshine]@Bizawit do you know what they were reported as this time last week please?

They seem to change them retrospectively [/quote]
Last week I think it was 34,460 (including unconfirmed lateral flows)

Health metrics back to being updated again.

For England therefore an update to the 2020 vs 2021 graphs for admissions; number in hospital; and deaths within 28 days by date of death.

all based on the seven day average.

Three graphs for each ; one starting from January; the second starting from Aug through to December and the third Aug to Oct; so just shorter timescales for the second and third graph.

Hospital admissions

Number in hospital

ought to have added the SPI-M last set of modelled scenarios.

Maybe next time.......

Deaths within 28 days with a reporting lag applied

Same comparator for cases in England. Second 2021 line added to show in addition to the overall seven day average that for pure PCRs (eg no LFD involved).