Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 26th September 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions
Please try to keep discussion focused on these
UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

then a few age bands- these based on the seven day rate per 100,000

school age groups 5-9s and the almost vertical 10-14s

and two age bands where many parents of those two previous groups might be found. 40-44s and 45-49s

15-19s - a new species of camel discovered

Boardmaster hump evident, with a rapid fall; Reading / Leeds / Bank Hol; again followed by a rapid fall; and a smaller back to school.

This age group also covers those who have left school maybe working, maybe at Uni

finally two age bands 20-24s and 25-29s; the former very close now to seeing its rate fall below that at the equivalent point last year.

Thanks boys they’re interestinf

students heading off to or going back to Uni. I've two in different places. Last year we saw huge jumps in several, but by no means all, university towns and cities.

Nottingham and Manchester both have big student populations; both saw big spikes at the start of last university academic year; and judging from friends of DS3 have had freshers in place for coming up for two weeks, and no doubt many 2nd / 3rd and above years for longer than that.

Nottingham currently has the lowest rate of any council area in the East Midlands (and Leicester has the third lowest rate in that region - yes LEICESTER!!!!!!!!!!!!). Its current rate though is a little above the equivalent point last year. As the graph shows the seven day average for actual cases in Nottingham rocketed at the start of last October, going from 51 on 27th September 2020 to a peak of over 600 on 8th October.

Similar picture in Manchester, currently the lowest rate council area in the North West. The current rate in Manchester is already lower that the equivalent point last year. The graph should say the rest.

finally although no uni there to my knowledge, long time thread favorite Swale has the second lowest current rate in England.

Loads of London Boroughs in the lowest 25 council areas.

Anacdata alert.
A second student has gone down with Covid the day after I taught them face to face!
I didn't get it after the first student did this
Does anyone know what the average incubation period is for delta variant.
I've cancelled visit to my elderly mum this Fri/Sat as I didn't want to risk going down with it then and therefore exposing her.
Also had to cancel lesson today as family not happy about me going after Covid exposure.
It is getting really frustrating!

The average incubation period is 4 days. It is fairly accurate at the population level - we could see very clear spikes of cases 4 days after super spreading events (e.g. Boardmasters, Saturday nightclubbing in Lincoln, etc).

Of course, incubation periods for individual cases will vary. The 3-5 days interval should capture the majority but there will always be exceptions falling outside of the generic timeline.

And thanks for the graphs and tables, boys3.

It is very interesting that many of the Alpha hot spots (from Swale and Thanet in SE to London boroughs) are now at the bottom of the list. Acquired immunity does work (especially in conjunction with vaccinations).

The intriguing thing also is that vaccination rates in both Swale and Thanet are middle of the road at best. Uptake in London we know about and even using ONS population figures they are nothing to get too excited about.

@wintertravel1980
Thank you so much for that information on incubation periods. It helps me plan as I seem to be getting repeatedly exposed by pesky teenagers. I have postponed a trip to see my elderly mum this weekend as I was concerned I might be incubating Covid (although obviously I hope not) and didn't want to pass it on to her.

The intriguing thing also is that vaccination rates in both Swale and Thanet are middle of the road at best

My hypothesis is that the vaccine is not good enough at preventing infection, but still does a job at making infection more difficult, so spread is very rapid through an unvaccinated community, and therefore you reach a level preventing further rapid spread in anyone who missed out quickly.

However the vaccine mitigates that rapid spread, but still results in spread. ie 100 people in two groups one 90% vaccinated the other 50% vaccinated, no previous exposure, let's introduce covid.

In the 50% (low) vaccinated, in the first week 90% of the unvaccinated get it and 20% of the vaccinated. So 55 infected.
In the 90% (high) vaccinated, only 27 infected.
next week 22 infected in the low group vs 15 in the high group
next week it's 8 in low group vs 12 in the high group.

So despite the vaccine working well and only 56 of the 100 infected in total, the snapshot rate in week three is higher in the more highly vaccinated group.

So highly vaccinated (with a vaccine which is relatively low percentage at preventing infection) keeps cases high. In the above of course the vulnerable people in the low vaccinated group would be a lot worse off and we'd see more serious events, but focusing purely on cases.

Thanks for those tables Boys. I find it interesting looking at Brent which is a neighbouring Borough to mine. They have a low vaccinated population with only 55% 2 doses and 61% single dose yet their infection rates are below the country average. They were hit hard at the beginning so does that indicate a now higher level of natural immunity? I suppose it could be that less people are testing but wouldn't that mean they'd be seeing a higher level of hospital admissions?

Hello data team. Apologies if this data has been posted before/ is not of interest. I know we are no longer in the EU ( no comment) but I thought this was a good - very large- data set to add to the vaccine discussions www.ema.europa.eu/en/human-regulatory/overview/public-health-threats/coronavirus-disease-covid-19/treatments-vaccines/vaccines-covid-19/safety-covid-19-vaccines#latest-safety-information-section

I tested positive on LF this morning, six days after contact with DS the day he tested positive. He has symptoms, I don’t. I happened to have flu vaccine yesterday so if I do feel rough I guess it may be difficult to know if it’s Covid-rough or vax side effects-rough.

Am near Kettering current teen and general Covid capital: the test centre is saying to expect up to five days for results!

Wow the figures for years 7-11 on the ONS survey are 4.6% currently infected, and the graph is going straight up (week to the end of 25th September).

Poor kids (especially if vulnerable or if they have any vulnerable family members)

The ONS have also put up this about Long Covid

Just over a third of staff (35.7%) and over one in ten (12.3%) secondary school pupils in England who said they had a confirmed coronavirus (COVID-19) infection reported experiencing ongoing symptoms for more than four weeks.

A similar proportion of those with a suspected COVID-19 infection, 34.2% of staff and 12.7% of secondary school pupils, also reported experiencing ongoing symptoms for more than four weeks.

Among those who reported experiencing ongoing symptoms, the most common was “weakness/tiredness”, reported by 59.6% of previously infected staff and 46.3% of pupils. The next most common symptom for staff was “shortness of breath” (41.8%) but this was less common among pupils (20.4%).

Last updated: 28/09/2021

Thanks for herecomes, just went to look for the Long Covid in Schools source:
www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/covid19schoolsinfectionsurveyenglandprevalenceofongoingsymptomsfollowingcoronaviruscovid19infectioninschoolpupilsandstaff/july2021

On Covid prevalence in schoolchildren - 4% is clearly high but it is worth remembering that in Scotland at the time of the peak the equivalent number was 10%. Back then Scotland’s schools still mandated masks for older students but it didn’t seem to make that much of a difference.

Interestingly but unsurprisingly, Independent Sage folks who are “outraged” about the 4% figure do not appear to remember Scotland’s 10%.

And another interesting point of comparison is London.

Back in January one in sixteen people in Barking and Dagenham was infected with Covid:

www.standard.co.uk/news/health/barking-dagenham-covid-hospital-ons-b765981.html

The prevalence for my borough was 1 in 25 (4%). The number is similar to what we are seeing in secondary schoolchildren at the moment but it was estimated across all age groups.

Let us look at London now. It is hard not to admire the beautiful downward trending line.

The thread about long flu is interesting. I had flu when young and healthy and it took three months to fully recover. I cannot stress enough I was young, slim, fit and healthy. There have always been viruses circulating and we never worried in the way lots of us do at the moment.

But the actual data says long covid is a bigger thing than post viral flu.

How much data is there on long flu or numbers who have long flu- I had long flu after swine flu and was never asked - my ear popping still exists now

And is it a higher proportion or just more prevalent due to far higher case numbers

Can you knowledgeable people comment on this story in the Standard? Britain's Covid infection rate one of the worst in the world www.standard.co.uk/news/uk/uk-covid-infection-rate-global-comparison-johns-hopkins-who-b958154.html?__vfz=medium%3Dstandalone_content_recirculation_with_ads

What's behind this? Is this partly because we test more? We had more Delta variant because of links to Indian subcontinent?? Or just ending restrictions too early?