Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

Not a lover of restrictions but the reality of not being able to access medical assistance is terrifying. In the same week, several hospital trusts cancel non urgent care, a relative waits for cancer surgery, another relative unable to see GP face-to-face despite suspected DVT, we had to wait 40 minutes just to get through to the call handler at 111 for ill child, children's hospital advise not to visit unless life threatening. How much worse should it get? We can't control how many people have medical emergencies such as, accidents, strokes, seizures etc etc, but we CAN control how many people need hospital for covid. We can't go on like this surely?

@NannyAndJohn all those restrictions you speak of have implications too. I will never walk about with an FFP3 face mask. Ridiculous. I refuse to comply with such nonsense just to protect unvaccinated people (not talking about those who can't get the vaccine obviously who are in a small minority) from their own poor decision masking. Yes it is sad that CEV people may catch COVID but this is why we have the vaccine and booster programme.
Clearly you don't own a pub/restaurant. Or indeed any small business.
You picture you working from home in a nice big house with a garden quivering with delight at the thought of further restrictions as they suit your lifestyle and won't impact your income in the slightest. Otherwise your stunted view would be very very different.

*I picture you

I don’t think we’ll see another full lockdown but I do think some restrictions will be brought back e.g masks.

A November-style lockdown, where schools are kept open, is quite likely. If this is the case, I will expect all teachers to be given booster vaccines as soon as they are needed as it is quite clear schools are where Covid spreads.

If we are not given boosters, I will support industrial action, as would many teachers I know. If everyone is in the same Covid soup, that’s fair enough, of course.

@BustopherPonsonbyJones

A November-style lockdown, where schools are kept open, is quite likely. If this is the case, I will expect all teachers to be given booster vaccines as soon as they are needed as it is quite clear schools are where Covid spreads.

If we are not given boosters, I will support industrial action, as would many teachers I know. If everyone is in the same Covid soup, that’s fair enough, of course.

I have to agree and I'm not a teacher, but given the 12-15 group won't be fully 2 jab vaccinated until earliest December, schools are still in for a tough ride.

It's ok saying they'll keep schools open, but if your teachers are sick....

@SonnetForSpring

In winter, Delta and vaccination is pretty similar to the situation with Alpha and no vaccination. That is the issue here. So lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Indeed, it feels like we are pursuing a rolling lockdown policy IMO. I really hope schools stay open but I don't think it's looking very hopeful. It's all too little too late again.

No it's not.

In the Alpha wave cases of 30k a day resulted in over 1,000 deaths a day in the weeks that followed. That case rate also resulted in as round 2k hospitalisations a day.

Don't make things up.

Indeed. I did the maths and found that the R for Delta + vaccines is higher than the R for Original Covid + no vaccines

Your 'projections' based on your maths haven't been terribly reliable in the past, to be fair.

It's not looking good if current trends continue. Who knows with this damn virus - it's going to be hairy for sure. These graphs were from yesterday's press conference.

The current trend of cases dropping is not looking good?

@Bordois

The current trend of cases dropping is not looking good?

Cases dropping whilst hospitalisations creep up could be bad. It could indicate a drop in people testing and isolating rather than cases dropping. Alternatively it could mean that immunity is waning or cases are moving from lower risk age groups into older higher risk groups. We don't know at this stage. I think its a wait and see where the trend starts to go.

We also wont start to see any possible effect from boosters (which will only be marginal anyway) or 12 - 15 year old jabs until mid October at the earliest.

So I certainly don't expect any further change in policy until October half term at the earliest unless things take a dramatic turn for the worse (which I'm not expecting).

Realistically the next 6 weeks are a waiting game to see how things start to pan out. We are in uncharted waters now so predictions are even more difficult to do at this stage.

I'm relatively calm about it at the moment but I think I would politely suggest that people wear masks indoors even if they are the only one in the place doing it. Its not much but it still could make a difference and I think until covid burns through the unvaccinated there's going to be a problem tbh. We might not get herd immunity but the unvaccinated are creating an issue that is ultimately time limited because of how much more they are at risk of hospitalisation with Delta. That ultimately is probably the thing thats going to make the biggest difference between the NHS being able to function and it grinding to a halt this winter.

I don't advocate mandatory vaccines or vaccine passports. I do think more needs to be down to help the hestitant who arent doing it because of lack of time / fear of needles or similar (rather than anti vax).

A few months ago (thinking March/April?) when they proudly produced the slides of the 100,000 cases/day to explain why we had to continue with restrictions until July wasn't their preferred scenario to try to get case numbers to peak in the late summer/autumn so that it didn't coincide with the traditional flu season?

I find it very odd that there hasn't been more pressure on Universities to get students jabbed.

They are already talking about "light touch" restrictions for the next few months, so a vaccine passport can't be too far away.

Cases dropping whilst hospitalisations creep up could be bad. It could indicate a drop in people testing and isolating rather than cases dropping. Alternatively it could mean that immunity is waning or cases are moving from lower risk age groups into older higher risk groups. We don't know at this stage. I think its a wait and see where the trend starts to go.

Absolutely. But equally hospitalisations could follow cases and start to drop in the coming weeks (how many times have we been told admissions lag behind when cases were on the rise!)

As you say, its a wait and see scenario, but as I've said so many times, the current situation is so different to last years that any comparison or predictions based on then are pretty meaningless.

@NannyAndJohn , you always throw a political point in, so I am assuming that you think covid has all been worth it if it brings the govt down.

But, what about other countries? Leaving aside the isolators (which are small in number and have particular factors to enable this) what do you think of virtually every single country in the world where lockdowns and masks are not in place? I’m not aware that any other leader went to Eton, which you blame for the UK’s predicament. I watch a lot of sport, and in the European football games (and US college football - interesting!) no one is wearing a mask. Are all these countries much better than us?

Why does the Uk have its own special brand of covid ?

I too suspect a drop in cases was due to fewer people testing, particularly with the isolation guidelines changing. I agree the next few weeks are a waiting game, however if they are expecting a miracle to happen where Covid suddenly decides it doesn’t want to do winter they’re being a little too optimistic. We need to bring back face masks and wfh now if we want to get to spring without a lockdown.

But testing has increased since the start of September..?

I don’t think wfh is the driver. It is clearly mass events involving singing/shouting, and family mixing/houses of multiple occupation. And add in the unvaxxed.

People are keen to close pubs/restaurants/museums… but catching covid in these settings is highly unlikely. A mass of unvaccinated people at a large wedding… high chance of transmission.

@DottyHarmer

I don’t think wfh is the driver. It is clearly mass events involving singing/shouting, and family mixing/houses of multiple occupation. And add in the unvaxxed.

People are keen to close pubs/restaurants/museums… but catching covid in these settings is highly unlikely. A mass of unvaccinated people at a large wedding… high chance of transmission.

this! my in laws caught it in a coach trip, they spent hours together with other people without face masks...

@Bordois

But testing has increased since the start of September..?

Not the rate of testing but the number of people ignoring symptoms and not testing. The public has Covid fatigue through the poor communication from the top, only a few weeks ago Freedom day was irreversible, everyone have a jolly good time hip hip!

The attitude of many has shifted, which is a concern because the perception of threat has diminished and they’ll dismiss a fever as just a cold when they could be contagious.

This is why living with Covid isn’t possible if your only plan is to ignore it, instead it simmers away in the background ready to bubble over at any moment.

@Madcats

A few months ago (thinking March/April?) when they proudly produced the slides of the 100,000 cases/day to explain why we had to continue with restrictions until July wasn't their preferred scenario to try to get case numbers to peak in the late summer/autumn so that it didn't coincide with the traditional flu season?

I find it very odd that there hasn't been more pressure on Universities to get students jabbed.

They are already talking about "light touch" restrictions for the next few months, so a vaccine passport can't be too far away.

Its not gone as well as hoped is the long and short of that.

It looks like estimates about return to normal behaviour were out - people have done so more than expected.

However they still are only on the medium size of predictions so definitely within the range of what they thought was possible and much, much lower than the worst estimates.

As a counter to that I think that people going a little mad over the summer is perhaps more preferable to doing the same but going into autumn though. I know that the restaurants and pubs around here were heaving as soon as restrictions lifted - people were outside still though or windows and doors wide open at least. That trade is now starting to drop off a little - i suspect because people have got it out of their system and are calming down to just get back to a normal routine.

And if the very latest figures are right then there may be drop off in hospitalisations that follows cases in a couple of weeks. Which would mean the pattern expected was correct - though I that would mean its peaked a month later than estimated.

I don't think the mad dash for boosters or teenagers is a knee jerk response though. I think its always been in the planning for now. It was never going to happen sooner for various reasons. It possibly is the optimum time to be doing it - not least because flu vaccinations also need to be done anyway.

(The only problem i see incoming with a flu / covid combined program is how many over 60s won't hit 6 months after their second dose until November which is starting to get a bit late for flu).

So I think overall, depending on what happens in the next couple of weeks, its within expectations but not as good as they might have hoped and it might have run a touch late - which might have knock on effects. But still could be significantly better than delaying opening up longer - for all the samr behavioral reasons...

@DottyHarmer where did you get that information from! The wedding industry have worked really hard opening up to prove that they are safe. Any weddings I have attended this summer (all 100 plus) there was no outbreaks. Everyone took a lateral flow test before hand.

@isthisok22 100+ weddings and not a single outbreak? Sorry but I can’t see that being possible, if anything it seems misguided. LFT are not accurate as we all know.

Weddings are no safer than pubs or restaurants, in fact you’re probably more at risk simply because it’s usually large groups of family members or close friends who will be hugging and standing much closer together unlike in a restaurant where you would tend to avoid close contact with the strangers seated near to you.

@Thewiseoneincognito I have been to 4, bridesmaid at 3 so there's no way I have missed any info on it. Just because you don't believe it doesn't mean it didn't happen!

[quote Thewiseoneincognito]@isthisok22 100+ weddings and not a single outbreak? Sorry but I can’t see that being possible, if anything it seems misguided. LFT are not accurate as we all know.

Weddings are no safer than pubs or restaurants, in fact you’re probably more at risk simply because it’s usually large groups of family members or close friends who will be hugging and standing much closer together unlike in a restaurant where you would tend to avoid close contact with the strangers seated near to you.[/quote]
this, I've not been to any in the last year but seen several pics of weddings in spain from some friends that have attended and you just needed one person there to cause a big outbreak .

same things as what has happened with the festivals etc, if the LFT were so secured... then the big outbreaks wouldn't have happened