Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

@lannistunut

We won't get herd immunity, whether kids get it or not

If by herd immunity you mean eradication, then no, but we will (and we seem to be well on the way) to a situation where life can go back to normal and Covid infections just bubble away as it settles into an endemic illness. The fact Covid cases appear to be falling with schools back and most people far more relaxed about social interaction than they were a few months back, is a good sign.

I really think we can avoid a lockdown this time, if they manage the risks and stop pretending it actually gone away for good.

Isolation, masks and working from home if you can/doesn't have a detrimental impact on your wellbeing.

@katesbushh

Herd immunity isn't possible nor will it be good enough!

And I've heard that at work ( in the NHS)
Very different to the pp who said we will get herd immunity who also works for the NHS.

I wish my local trust was at their plateau. Our numbers are still going up and rapidly. Staff numbers going down.
Still it is good to know that there are spaces in other trusts where numbers are levelling out should anyone need to transfer out of county. That wasn't even an option last time.
Every cloud...

You seem to arguing that we should have restrictions for ever and ever...

Not at all.
I'm arguing that without managing it and reducing the risks where we can- then it will be lockdown after lockdown.
Now is the time to bring in measures to limit the impact over Christmas
Not wait until everything is fucked again and shut everything down.

Over winter even

@katesbushh

Not at all. I'm arguing that without managing it and reducing the risks where we can- then it will be lockdown after lockdown. Now is the time to bring in measures to limit the impact over Christmas Not wait until everything is fucked again and shut everything down.

I wasn't saying that you were inferring we'd have lockdowns forever, but restrictions (which you've said you'd expect would be good enough to stop a lockdown) would be if you believe that we'll never get to a point where immunity is good enough.

Slim at the moment, the vaccines are working to keep people out of hospital.
All depends if another new variant pops up.

I honestly can't see how we will get out of this.

Winter is proving to be a weakness and yes I think for now restrictions will be needed.
Hopefully the boosters will help and increased SD.
Who knows
But, for now there needs to be restrictions.

I've not argued that it will be forever and ever, but at this present time it is ridiculous not to have anything.

@katesbushh

Not at all. I'm arguing that without managing it and reducing the risks where we can- then it will be lockdown after lockdown. Now is the time to bring in measures to limit the impact over Christmas Not wait until everything is fucked again and shut everything down.

If closing things down and restricting our day to day life will allow us meeting for one day.. fuck Xmas!

It does make you wonder what the picture would have been like if the big events hadn’t gone ahead, masks had stayed in place and wfh was still ‘advised’. I just hope the likes of Reading, Board masters, the football etc will be worth the winter lockdown and restrictions again.

It was crystal clear to many that lifting restrictions and giving the public the freedom of choice was a recipe for disaster in the context of Delta. Once it became apparent just how much more virulent it was they should have changed our plans instead of pretending everything was great.

You only have to read these threads to see how fatigued people are, getting the public back onboard is going to be tough. My guess, and I’ve said it elsewhere on here before, is that they will wait until the very last moment when the situation becomes so dire that the public cry out for lockdown. To reach that point it’s going to have to be very bad and that’s what scares me.

@TartanJumper

Slim at the moment, the vaccines are working to keep people out of hospital. All depends if another new variant pops up.

The numbers are slowly ticking upwards though. A lockdown would be because of Delta that’s aside from a new variant.

If a vaccine resistant variant pops up we are back to square 1 effective immediately and it’s back to lockdowns and shielding the CEV so let’s not tempt fate with that fresh hell please.

If by herd immunity you mean eradication, then no, but we will (and we seem to be well on the way) to a situation where life can go back to normal and Covid infections just bubble away as it settles into an endemic illness. The fact Covid cases appear to be falling with schools back and most people far more relaxed about social interaction than they were a few months back, is a good sign.

This just bears no relation to reality, and what the CMO was saying this afternoon in the press conference.

Wishful thinking isn't going to change scientific fact.

@EasterIssland I corrected my post. I meant winter.

@Thewiseoneincognito

It does make you wonder what the picture would have been like if the big events hadn’t gone ahead, masks had stayed in place and wfh was still ‘advised’. I just hope the likes of Reading, Board masters, the football etc will be worth the winter lockdown and restrictions again.

It was crystal clear to many that lifting restrictions and giving the public the freedom of choice was a recipe for disaster in the context of Delta. Once it became apparent just how much more virulent it was they should have changed our plans instead of pretending everything was great.

You only have to read these threads to see how fatigued people are, getting the public back onboard is going to be tough. My guess, and I’ve said it elsewhere on here before, is that they will wait until the very last moment when the situation becomes so dire that the public cry out for lockdown. To reach that point it’s going to have to be very bad and that’s what scares me.

We could not have continued without stuff like this going on.

We would just had illegal raves and stuff instead which would have had problems.

Isolation, masks and working from home if you can/doesn't have a detrimental impact on your wellbeing.

Not true. Certainly not for DH. Many of his colleagues are struggling. He has one new recruit who was desperate for a job in an office. At his previous job he had recently lost a work mate who couldn't cope with the isolation of living and working alone.

Working from home would have a massive impact on my wellbeing. I would absolutely hate it.
It can be isolating and lonely for many.

@katesbushh

Not at all. I'm arguing that without managing it and reducing the risks where we can- then it will be lockdown after lockdown. Now is the time to bring in measures to limit the impact over Christmas Not wait until everything is fucked again and shut everything down.

Absolutely.

But Johnson would rather let it rip now to Save Christmas Shopping and then plunge us into Lockdown on the evening of the 24th.

In winter, Delta and vaccination is pretty similar to the situation with Alpha and no vaccination. That is the issue here. So lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Indeed, it feels like we are pursuing a rolling lockdown policy IMO. I really hope schools stay open but I don't think it's looking very hopeful. It's all too little too late again.

Not everyone is a huge Christmas fan. I’d gladly give it a miss every year.

I see are we are back to ‘let it rip’ and ‘plunging’ into lockdown. . 😂

@SonnetForSpring

In winter, Delta and vaccination is pretty similar to the situation with Alpha and no vaccination. That is the issue here. So lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Indeed, it feels like we are pursuing a rolling lockdown policy IMO. I really hope schools stay open but I don't think it's looking very hopeful. It's all too little too late again.

I had never thought of it that way but it does hold some merit, Delta and vaccines is almost the same as Alpha and no vaccines in a winter scenario. The main difference being those most at risk now have a degree of protection, how robust remains to be seen so the odds do go on our favour more this time.

The fact we have had a ‘Winter’ plan laid out in mid September shows there’s very little optimism behind the scenes IMO. If there was any remote chance of us scraping through this and managing they would have said no lockdowns ever again.

That they didn’t say this is quite telling.

High rates of RSV now (presumably most of your paediatric beds) are a direct result of lowered immunity due to lockdowns/restrictions across the last year and a half

Lockdowns don’t lower immunity, that’s not how the immune system works.

The “high” levels of RSV are simply as a result of kids mixing again and haven’t exceeded the levels of cases pre-Covid.

@SonnetForSpring

In winter, Delta and vaccination is pretty similar to the situation with Alpha and no vaccination. That is the issue here. So lockdowns cannot be ruled out. Indeed, it feels like we are pursuing a rolling lockdown policy IMO. I really hope schools stay open but I don't think it's looking very hopeful. It's all too little too late again.

Indeed. I did the maths and found that the R for Delta + vaccines is higher than the R for Original Covid + no vaccines.

I did the maths and found that the R for Delta + vaccines is higher than the R for Original Covid + no vaccines.

Then we’ve nothing to worry about ! Still thinking about freedom day in June and the 100k cases we were going to have thanks to your maths and how we should trust them as you had a maths master !