Liklihood of another lockdown?

[JustPloddingAlong123]

Yes I know nobody can tell the future. But I'm just wondering what the general consensus is/ how likely you think another lockdown is? I'm hoping worst case masks again.
I want to start my daughter back at a club she went too, we stopped because she doesn't get on with zoom lessons and it was a waste of money during lockdown. Worth signing her back up or waiting a bit longer?

I went to Chester and there were people in masks everywhere.

Hahaha! The centre of Chester is not exactly representative of the NW. Not by a million miles.

Ha, yes touristy Chester.

One of the most grim things about all this is the differential death rate north v south, and how much worse it has all been in the north economically etc. Not that the government care of course about that.

@RedToothBrush

I went to Chester and there were people in masks everywhere.

Hahaha! The centre of Chester is not exactly representative of the NW. Not by a million miles.

Not sure why you are laughing. Where did I say I only visited the centre? Assumptions again.

@sproutsandparsnips

I'm afraid I haven't had chance to read all of the recent responses, but, having just got home from work in a hospital I can add some anecdotal evidence to this thread: We could deal with all the very sick patients who have Covid in our trust if we could facilitate discharging the patients who have no medical need of hospital care. There are more patients awaiting eg: packages of care or discharge to a care home that, because they have a resident or staff member with Covid are not able to take back their hospitalised resident, than there are patients with Covid (some of whom are not requiring treatment for it). Our crisis is entirely within social care ie people awaiting domiciliary care and people awaiting placement in residential or nursing care or discharge back to that care. I'm not sure a lockdown can solve that problem.

Yep. My dad was one if them. An extra 11 days sftef he was fit for discharge to care home and a couple of my friends have parents in the same boat. In dad's case it wasn't because anyone at the homed in his area had covid but because they couldn't fill vacancies. It would be really interesting to see how many patients are still in hospital because they need care.

A relative has the District Nurse daily and they couldn't come last Saturday as they were all involved in trying to get (non covid) patients discharged from the hospital. So that makes sense.

Absolutely. I just can’t understand why cottage hospitals were closed, and why they can’t be used again.

Acute beds occupied by long-term patients with social care needs is horrifically expensive and wasteful.

Where did I say I only visited the centre? confused Assumptions again.

Actually you assumed, that I assumed that!!!

I know Chester fairly well. Not just the centre. Its still fairly unrepresentative of the NW. Its above the curve for poverty and the population is generally older than the cities of Manchester and Liverpool. But its certainly not a Bolton, St Helens, Wigan, Rochdale or Blackpool either. Its still Cheshire with less dense house and is more white than many other places in the NW.

But yes... I would never use Chester as a place representative of the northwest for many many reasons.

Of course you assumed that. Otherwise you wouldn’t have specifically mentioned the centre.

@RedToothBrush You might be interested in this

www.theguardian.com/uk-news/2021/sep/03/towns-rochdale-braintree-uk-asylum-system

NI and Scotland have asked for army assistance to support the ambulance service.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58585349

[quote vera99]NI and Scotland have asked for army assistance to support the ambulance service.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58585349[/quote]
Surely this is an example of unsustainable pressure on the NHS?

It's not looking good and Scotland vis a vis schools is a week behind England. My nephew starts university this weekend as well.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-ambulance-emergency-delays-pressure-b1889349.html

"Nine out of the 10 ambulance trusts in England are now operating at their highest level of demand as the summer crisis hitting the NHS worsens.

The volume of 999 calls being made by the public, coupled with long delays at hospitals, is fuelling extraordinary waits for ambulances, in some cases as long as 29 hours in recent days.

In a new briefing to staff at the West Midlands Ambulance Service, shared with The Independent, chief executive Anthony Marsh said the situation was unlike anything he’s seen in his career.

It revealed nine out of 10 ambulance trusts are now under “extreme pressure” and operating at level 4 demand, previously known as a “black alert”.

[quote vera99]NI and Scotland have asked for army assistance to support the ambulance service.

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-58585349[/quote]
It is only mid September

I'm so cross we have taken the route we have, UK just keeps ignoring all science.

@vera99

It's not looking good and Scotland vis a vis schools is a week behind England. My nephew starts university this weekend as well.

www.independent.co.uk/news/health/nhs-ambulance-emergency-delays-pressure-b1889349.html

"Nine out of the 10 ambulance trusts in England are now operating at their highest level of demand as the summer crisis hitting the NHS worsens.

The volume of 999 calls being made by the public, coupled with long delays at hospitals, is fuelling extraordinary waits for ambulances, in some cases as long as 29 hours in recent days.

In a new briefing to staff at the West Midlands Ambulance Service, shared with The Independent, chief executive Anthony Marsh said the situation was unlike anything he’s seen in his career.

It revealed nine out of 10 ambulance trusts are now under “extreme pressure” and operating at level 4 demand, previously known as a “black alert”.

And our government are planning to open up international travel!

Even Blind Freddy could see that we're about to enter the eye of a shitstorm.

Johnson the master of the handbrake turn. "I see no reason....." 3 weeks later "I must square with the British people".

This virus has done a few handbrake turns too.

The best hope is delta hitting a wall of antibodies burns out and we're done. The Trumpian "the virus can just magically disappear". I live in hope,

QueenLagertha

@NannyAndJohn all those restrictions you speak of have implications too. I will never walk about with an FFP3 face mask. Ridiculous. I refuse to comply with such nonsense just to protect unvaccinated people“”

If you wear an FFP3, you’re actually protecting yourself just as much

@MrsSkylerWhite no thanks. I'll take my chances now. Fully vaccinated and will get a booster. Life goes on.

Fair enough.

Aren't FFP3 the tight fitting masks that are supposed to be properly fitter? If so I'd rather not leave the house than wear one!

Zoe have said we should invoke Plan B now, of course, we won't so a lockdown gets ever likelier.

covid.joinzoe.com/post/with-the-highest-cases-in-europe-uk-should-trigger-plan-b-now

Was plan B WFH and masks? I can't remember what else.

@vera99 'ever likelier'

@MrsSkylerWhite your not protecting unvaccinated people though, your protecting cev by wearing a mask, who even being double/triple vaccinated won’t help.