Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Could be third time the charm; Hep B is 3 or 4 doses. (Except for my mate who apparently has weirdly low immunity to it and has to re-jab for healthcare. She also caught covid after Pfizer...)

I had my 2nd Pfizer dose 3/2/21. I am 66. I was volunteering in a vaccine centre in London so was offered it. It was done 3 weeks 4 days after my first dose. I’ll let you know when I get Covid.

DH and I had our 2nd dose on 10/3/2021.
He caught Covid from Dd a month ago.

Should say pfizer

@MidtoLon - I'm hoping you went to Boardmasters, that was right around 6 months, and if you made it through without that will be good news for the vaccine!

@traumatisednoodle You avoided presumably? and was DH particularly unwell if you don't mind me asking?

Is anyone else surprised by the fall in numbers even though schools have returned? Is this a good thing or are we expecting rising numbers over the coming weeks?

Obviously it’s a good thing but is this the calm before the storm?

I’d love to feel optimistic but we’ve been here before..

I had my second dose May 16th and caught Covid 2 1/2 months later ...

Groups 1 and 2 were being vaccinated from December. Some had their second dose three weeks later, even when the advice came out to postpone it. But then it was a bit of a mixed bag, with some getting their second dose at 12 weeks to the day, some at 10 weeks, etc. So yes, I keep thinking there must be quite a few who are the six to nine month point now (a lot of whom will have had pfizer).

Yes I avoided it (and no antibodies on blood test this week).
He was more unwell than I expected, not hospitalised but for example couldn't cook a meal other than heating soup for a few days.

@Piggy I guess we have to put you in the "didn't get a good immunity response" (or as likely made a good one but too specific to original variant) as opposed to waning though.

I'm personally more concerned with waning immunity as it will mean the susceptible population will grow, which will sustain high prevalence longer and make it harder for people to avoid catching covid at all - ie unvaccinated, can't be vaccinated, or those who didn't make a get immunity response to delta.

I am group 2, DH had a lucky "6th dose" (maybe not so lucky now).

@BigWoollyJumpers

In our local town over the last couple of days, there have been (-) minus figures for first vaccinations, odd. I can only assume some sort of de-duping going on, or wrong area postcoded perhaps, or even taking out those under 16. Anyway, noticed, and thought it was odd.

I think your town has lost its vaccination centre. Nearest one is Sandown now. This could alter the data your seeing?

@NotDonna. Sandown is stopping vaccines from the 19 Sept all together. Don’t know if Epsom is going to start doing them again, or they will re consider keeping Sandown open for boosters.

@BigWoollyJumpers & @Mindymomo
I’ve no idea if the data re vaccines relates to home postcode of the ppl having the vaccines or if the data relates to the centre where the vaccine is given. If the latter then vaccine centre shutting could be why there are minus uptakes.

Surely it must relate to home postcode, like infection rates and hospitalisations?

[quote NotDonna]**@BigWoollyJumpers* & @Mindymomo*
I’ve no idea if the data re vaccines relates to home postcode of the ppl having the vaccines or if the data relates to the centre where the vaccine is given. If the latter then vaccine centre shutting could be why there are minus uptakes.[/quote]
Home postcodes.
It's probably errors being corrected as they close up the site e.g. removing under 16s.

Just over 88% of 16-24 yr old showing antibodies according to ONS. Bodes well for Universities.

anecdote, I know. But both me and DC's father got it the same time. We both had the second dose about 3 months ago, but live apart. I still have not put my foot in a supermarket.... I am gobsmacked! Best guess is that it came though one of DC's but they both tested negative ?

Just over 88% of 16-24 yr old showing antibodies according to ONS. Bodes well for Universities

Do we have knowledge on the accuracy of the tests in use? I found
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/898437/Evaluation__of_sensitivity_and_specificity_of_4_commercially_available_SARS-CoV-2_antibody_immunoassays.pdf
but that shows a specificity from 92%-98% and has discussion that it's 30 days post infection (which means we're barely at boardmasters infections for the high sensitivity) But that's pretty old, and we don't know which actual test was used?

The specificity of that evaluation would very much suggest it's a lower bound too at 88%. Really not surprising that rates are declining on that data.

A drop from 33,389 on this day last week to 26,981 today, and this despite schools having been back in England for nearly two weeks... Very good news!

For the sake of accuracy, Scotland didn't report any cases today - but that said, the England only numbers were still down approx 15% on last week. Looking as if admissions are now starting to follow the case trend and drop too

Great news re cases and if admissions follow too.

Case numbers are looking good 👍🏻. At the back of my mind my thoughts are ‘but people aren’t bothering to test’ and ‘people are getting a false negative lft and think they don’t have it’.

If this were the case, I’m assuming the percentage positive would be higher than it is? So does this mean figures actually are as good as they look? Is some kind of herd immunity level possible?

If people were not testing, what we'd see is higher case positivity yes.

However, there could be a situation where the very worried well were testing more and more, and keeping the testing numbers up, thus suppressing the figures. So I don't think it's absolutely reliable an indicator. False negative LFT's would still be in proportion to the positives in every other time, and positivity in LFT's is declining, that hypothesis doesn't fit.

The antibody stats from Bordois saying that 88% as a minimum of 16-24 year olds have antibodies is at the likely herd immunity levels for the age group, so as this group has the most contacts, this will have a huge dampener on spread. The only way we could not see a reduction with these levels is if the immunity from those antibodies is poor - now that is possible because all the tests for antibodys, and the vaccine are against the original covid, and delta might be different enough to evade it.