As the ONS figure is often far higher than the number of actual positive tests, then this means that the REAL number of cases is also much higher than 1 in 24 in Kettering
when I said before that maybe 20% cases were found from the ONS, I was disagreed. So - what is the proportion of cases found?
I really do not think 1 in 24 found is high - people are obsessed with testing, PCR's for all close contacts now, but no other measures, loads of cases are going to be found as there's nothing effective being done to prevent spread (mask mandates when moving about in schools and advice is all, but masks off when in the class rooms ) so I would expect lots of spread without mitigations.
No mitigations, 30 kids in a class, R of around 6, three days between cses, within a 14 day period, that's half the students infected - mixing outside of classes, or in secondary schools where you see even more kids, then it would be higher. So then we ask what proportion of classes, I think it would be pretty high, there's no mitigations after all, so that would mean the majority of classes would then have it, but even if it was only 25% of classes, that's still at an average prevalence of 4/30's so we'd need to catch around 25% of cases. Which is what I reckon we do catch.
However as I say, that surprises me, 'cos I can't believe it's only in 25% of classes without any mitigations. So either it's not as infectious in kids (unbelievable according to many) or there's so much more immunity (ie even more infected in the past) or we're detecting fewer cases than thought, and therefore the rate should be even higher.