Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Well, I was just quoting SAGE smile

Sorry here for giving the impression I was commenting on you, it was very much SAGE I was commenting on! It's just I see the fact that none of the people who reviewed the paper said "wrong, change this to office" makes me wonder if anyone actually bothered to check the data, or the maths or the conclusions.

and virtually none to do with meeting in the home and with socialising

Well no, 'cos the increases in contacts via socialising was already counted in the previous increases - also, and I think pretty significantly, I believe they don't count "being at a festival" as thousands of contacts, just the few friends you went with. It's a "flu" virus measure, not an airborne one.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Bumping along at 30k-ish daily is I believe about the level Sage (for media Prof Hunter and Prof Hayward) have said to expect ongoing (similar to endemic flu)

30k a day is over 10million a year, which at 20% detection rates which ONS says covid gets is over 50 million a year, which is not flu, the estimates for flu (no-one obviously really knows as we don't test like covid) is 10-20% of population getting flu every year, which would be an average of 6k per day equivalent to the covid number (reality is of course completely different in normal times the flu comes in a wave with large peaks of infection in a few weeks)

I don't really understand why people think it's surprising cases aren't going up, we've had too many cases that unless the vaccine is worthless, there simply aren't the people to be infected in huge numbers.

Do you mean we should assume the reality is about 150k people are getting infected every day?

www.manchestereveningnews.co.uk/news/greater-manchester-news/child-covid-rates-greater-manchester-21564309
Reporting that rates for 10-14 year olds have gone up by over 50% since term started. Is this happening elsewhere? We've had fairly consistently high levels compared to England averages for a long time. I would have thought this kind of increase would have been more likely in areas with lower rates and therefore less immunity?

Do you mean we should assume the reality is about 150k people are getting infected every day?

Yep, something like that, we never really know for sure as we don't know exactly the proportion who are detected, but if you look at the ONS numbers of "estimated prevalence in the community" over a 2 week period and compare that to the positive tests, you see the number.

If we look at the recent ONS 1 in 50 - in England over a 14 day period, which is just over a million people infected during that time, because infections almost all last less than 14 days, that means a million needed to be infected, which if you compare it with the discovered cases, you'll see it's only around 20%.

Of course the numbers aren't directly comparable, due to sampling (and population) differences, but it's more that sort of ballpark than the idea that all cases are being picked up.

Reporting that rates for 10-14 year olds have gone up by over 50% since term started. Is this happening elsewhere

This is a small changes isn't it? given the LFD behaviour we know about - before school starts, the only cases found would be symptomatic kids, with LFD testing you'd also be catching asymptomatic too. If that's right, and a 50% increase if there are no other changes means 1/3rd are asymptomatic, however normal belief is that a higher proportion, likely even the majority of this age group are asymptomatic. So this would suggest a decline rather than an increase?

What other option?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Do you mean we should assume the reality is about 150k people are getting infected every day?

Yep, something like that, we never really know for sure as we don't know exactly the proportion who are detected, but if you look at the ONS numbers of "estimated prevalence in the community" over a 2 week period and compare that to the positive tests, you see the number.

If we look at the recent ONS 1 in 50 - in England over a 14 day period, which is just over a million people infected during that time, because infections almost all last less than 14 days, that means a million needed to be infected, which if you compare it with the discovered cases, you'll see it's only around 20%.

Of course the numbers aren't directly comparable, due to sampling (and population) differences, but it's more that sort of ballpark than the idea that all cases are being picked up.

Testing positive can happen up to 90 days post infection, so I don't agree with your calculation.

Once upon a time more used to be made of the fact that asymptomatic meant 'at point of testing'. I think it's still true that most do go on t develop a range of symptoms.

PCRs should also be picking up those people , as contacts are advised to PCR.

Testing positive can happen up to 90 days post infection, so I don't agree with your calculation

But the ONS are testing the same population all the time, so they pick the first positive in their test group for their sampling. Or they adjust for this, they specifically say the prevalence of cases over the previous 14 days.

Unless you were disagreeing with the daily case data?

PCRs should also be picking up those people , as contacts are advised to PCR

Possibly, but obviously if this is the case, then all the narratives about "people aren't testing, people aren't keeping to the rules" etc. need to go out of the window, as to be reflected in the stats you need near complete compliance.

I do tend to think that is just a narrative. Or exaggerated.

Not everyone PCRs. But there are plenty who do.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Testing positive can happen up to 90 days post infection, so I don't agree with your calculation

But the ONS are testing the same population all the time, so they pick the first positive in their test group for their sampling. Or they adjust for this, they specifically say the prevalence of cases over the previous 14 days.

Unless you were disagreeing with the daily case data?

I don't believe they do any removal, there is nothing in the methodology for adjustments. Or at least, they didn't used to when we checked.

In our local town over the last couple of days, there have been (-) minus figures for first vaccinations, odd. I can only assume some sort of de-duping going on, or wrong area postcoded perhaps, or even taking out those under 16. Anyway, noticed, and thought it was odd.

Reporting that rates for 10-14 year olds have gone up by over 50% since term started. Is this happening elsewhere? We've had fairly consistently high levels compared to England averages for a long time. I would have thought this kind of increase would have been more likely in areas with lower rates and therefore less immunity?

I think this is quite possible. DD's school was very strict last year about mask wearing, ventilation, staying in the same room all day etc and the number of cases was tiny. This year all that has gone and in just over a week they've had more cases than they had in the whole of last year (including DD). And people aren't getting their kids PCR tested with possible symptoms let alone as contacts (I don't even know if they're informed now if they're a close contact). The amount of parents on my WhatsApp groups who say their child has caught a cold but the LFT is negative is frighteningly large.

The amount of parents on my WhatsApp groups who say their child has caught a cold but the LFT is negative is frighteningly large

Ignoring the use of LFT with symptoms (and we don't actually know the cold symptoms are including covid symptoms here) but Rhinovirus has always peaked in September, and did last year too, even when other respiratory viruses were being suppressed / pattern changed by the measures.

So I think it is likely that there genuinely is a lot of "cold" around.

Today's reported deaths in English hospitals:

121 total

52 (43%) - 80+
50 (41%) - 60-79
18 (15%) - 40-59
1 (1%) - 20-39
0 (0%) - 0-19

Pretty much the same pattern as throughout the whole pandemic

The amount of parents on my WhatsApp groups who say their child has caught a cold but the LFT is negative is frighteningly large.

Children still get colds surely?

Kids get all sorts if things..!

So Pfizer says wanes after 6-8 months.

This should be visible in the stats now shouldn't it? Since we rigourously went down the age groups, we should have a good solid wave of people vaccinated 6 months ago which would reflect itself with a higher proportion of positives in these age groups.

Unfortunately there's 2 problems, knowing the ratios of people in the age group who got Pfizer vs AZ, and I'm not positive that Pfizer have said the waning applies to the longer gap in the same way.

But if it does wane, we're at the 6 month point right now for over 70's I think, so cases should start rising in those groups now - overall case levels are still high enough that they're unlikely to avoid coming into contact it with the virus.

sirfredfredgeorge

“There's no evidence of rocketing cases in schools in the stats”

I’m sorry, I didn’t mean to post local data and extrapolate without saying so.

I live in Leicestershire. The kids went back around 27th August. I don’t know if this is being seen elsewhere.

My DS is in primary and I’ve been paying particular attention to rates in this age group (not least because it’s harder to to get that age group to swab, compared to secondary).

The rolling 7 day rates (gov web page with the heatmap) have roughly doubled since 27th aug in 5-9 age group. E.g 400 to 900

The heatmap shows the same trend for most other Leicestershire Local Authorities for this age group.

A lot of the older age groups got AZ, didn't they? There was some Pfizer initially for the first people to get vaccinated in December/January but then mostly AZ at many vaccination centres. And waning is ok if it starts from a high level as it did, especially when it comes to protection from serious illness, hospitalisation and death.

But if it does wane, we're at the 6 month point right now for over 70's I think, so cases should start rising in those groups now - overall case levels are still high enough that they're unlikely to avoid coming into contact it with the virus.

I think my parents are mid - end October before the
6 months are up. (Over 70)

@nordica

A lot of the older age groups got AZ, didn't they? There was some Pfizer initially for the first people to get vaccinated in December/January but then mostly AZ at many vaccination centres. And waning is ok if it starts from a high level as it did, especially when it comes to protection from serious illness, hospitalisation and death.

Depends on age and location; all our parents and most of their siblings/ cousins got Pfizer (70s). Just 60s down in our family plus nursing home got AZ.

@nordica

A lot of the older age groups got AZ, didn't they? There was some Pfizer initially for the first people to get vaccinated in December/January but then mostly AZ at many vaccination centres. And waning is ok if it starts from a high level as it did, especially when it comes to protection from serious illness, hospitalisation and death.

All the over 70s I know got Pfizer in Feb (that was in Scotland though)

(They were the bumper batch second jabs early-mid April, so yes October to December waning.)

Depends on age and location; all our parents and most of their siblings/ cousins got Pfizer (70s)

Ooh, that's even better then, so we'll have age stratify and region stratify, but we'd need to know the locations of which got Pfizer vs others.

And yes, sorry for making the mistake on 6 months, got a little bit longer to wait - of course they'll also have boosters, although boosters with one which only lasts 6-8 months doesn't sound great.