Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Thank you for the new thread.

Big drop in positive tests reported today 🙌🏻

@Bizawit

Thank you for the new thread.

Big drop in positive tests reported today 🙌🏻

It's a bank holiday.

Today's England Spec Date Graphic

Regional case movement in England equivalent position; as reported today and last Monday for spec dates covering the weeks staring Monday 16th and Monday 23rd.

Most regions slight decline, bigger falls in South East and South West; slight increases, in North East and North West.

With today being a bank holiday in most places (Not Scotland I think??) no health date update.

As it is a bank holiday (as @NannyAndJohn has pithily pointed out Wales isnt included and headlines only for Northern Ireland

Thanks boys.

Scottish cases half that of yesterday which would seem unlikely to represent reality.

And thanks for new thread @boys3.

Thanks, boys3.

It’s not a bank holiday in Scotland though so that cannot be the impact there

Thanks boys

Thanks for new thread, Boys

It's a bank holiday.

Not in Scotland

It's a bank holiday

yes I’m aware, but even taking that into account there is a drop. England is clearly falling. There’s a huge drop in Scotland too, although as others have pointed out it’s too drastic and too sudden to make much sense. But still more positive news than negative.

England's number have been falling for the last few days.

@boys3
Thanks so much for this reply towards the previous thread it’s very helpful indeed. I’m not sure how I should quote you:

Quote:
R is on the healthcare pages of the dashboard

this is England
coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nation%26areaName=England#card-reproduction_number_r_and_growth_rate

This is the South West NHS region

coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/healthcare?areaType=nhsRegion%26areaName=South%20West#card-reproduction_number_r_and_growth_rate

Cases from about the data
Cases are allocated to the person's area of residence. From 16 November 2020, PHE has updated the way it records the location of people who test positive or negative for COVID-19 in England. It now prioritises addresses given at the point of testing over the details registered on a patient’s record in the NHS Digital Patient Demographic Service. The change was largely for students - ie tested positive at Uni (say Durham) but home GP still in Surrey, case initially recorded for Surrey.

End of Quote.

I knew about the R rate. It was the 1 in X number by region I was after. I’ve seen it before somewhere. I don’t know how long a person is deemed to be infectious for to figure it out myself. Is it a full week?

Anyone care to do some math?
What is the delta in likeliness to catch covid in school as a vaccinated teen if others are not vaccinated compared to if not being vaccinated? School has 1800 kids, around 1200 in the same building/mixing, rest is juniors.
I know it's hardly quantifiable, so assigning values to certain criteria to emulate them in math is acceptable.

As put on the end of the last thread,
Scotland is still in backlog world, where a large proportion of tests were processed more than 48 hours ago. Monday is also traditionally quite low.
By specimen date,
Thurs 26th 7187, still being added to today.
Thurs 19th 3709
Thurs 12th 1394
So cases doubling weekly.

On boosters - is there really strong evidence for waning protection as opposed to simply not very good protection? Most of the "waning protection" evidence is all confounded with protection against original / alpha vs protection against delta as well as the time factor due to the circulating viruses.

(and of course even the "not very good protection" is still very, very good against serious effect)

@Perihelion

As put on the end of the last thread, Scotland is still in backlog world, where a large proportion of tests were processed more than 48 hours ago. Monday is also traditionally quite low. By specimen date, Thurs 26th 7187, still being added to today. Thurs 19th 3709 Thurs 12th 1394 So cases doubling weekly.

Yes but I think people are wondering what might have happened over the last few days. What about Friday and Saturdays cases 🤷🏼‍♀️.

On boosters - is there really strong evidence for waning protection as opposed to simply not very good protection?

The evidence is not particularly strong hence the JCVI reluctance to endorse the go ahead.

However the data from Israel suggests that there is a "realistic (40-50%) possibility" that protection against severe disease might also be waning (albeit more slowly). I would argue that expecting 70s+ to boost their immunity through natural infection might be a risky strategy. It might work but what if it does not? Unless there is a significant downside to having the third jab, I would personally play it safe and go head with boosters (for high risk groups only) even when the data is not crystal clear.

Are there any trials being done on boosters? An RCT seems like the best way to remove any confounding factors like new variants, time of year, change in behaviours post lockdown etc. Current high prevalence means it shouldn't take too long to get some useful results to see whether they're actually of benefit.

From BBC - on boosters, waning immunity and endemic equilibrium:

Prof Paul Hunter from the University of East Anglia says a widespread booster campaign may not be needed as the vaccines are still effective at preventing serious disease in many people.

But he's told the PA news agency the boosters should be given quickly to over-80s and the clinically vulnerable.

“The evidence is that these people won’t have responded that well to vaccine," says Prof Hunter.

“As far as I’m concerned there is no debate whatsoever about that group, they should be boosted and they should be boosted pretty soon."

Although protection for other groups will be waning, he says the vaccines will "hopefully" prevent serious illness for several years.

He also says Covid-19 is approaching the "endemic equilibrium", the number of cases we should expect to see per day forever. In other coronaviruses that have been circulating for many years in humans, this is about 45,000 cases a day, Prof Hunter says.