Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Is it a case of less people WFH and don’t want to risk testing themselves or their dc for fear of isolation rules?

It seems strange that schools go back and cases keep falling? It’s great, it’s a surprise but equally puzzling?

I think it will take longer to see the effect of schools going back. It is great though that cases are falling --presumably because other groups have improved antibody levels now?

It’s fascinating. Maybe it’s burning itself out, even if temporarily before the next variant

Hospitalisations in England have also started to fall so the drop in cases is very real.

Unfortunately, the concept of endemic equilibrium is different from herd immunity. Most likely we will keep catching Covid over our lifetime but each subsequent infection should be milder and milder (as it is the case with other respiratory viruses).

It is also possible that we will continue seeing peaks and troughs in cases across different age groups and different local authorities but unless we see the new variant there are reasons to be cautiously optimistic. Boosters should help with the risk of waning immunity (especially for older and vulnerable people). Generally, things seem to be looking good.

Unfortunately, the concept of endemic equilibrium is different from herd immunity. Most likely we will keep catching Covid over our lifetime but each subsequent infection should be milder and milder (as it is the case with other respiratory viruses)

But it will almost certainly come in waves due to the immunity in the population, only while there are enough people susceptible to infection will there be any significant number of people to infect and spread. And the waves are likely to be seasonal, as seasonal effects increase the chance of getting R above 1.

It won't be a case of there always being a regular X number of cases every day, it'll be loads of cases in a shortish period, just like with all the other respiratory viruses. And it will take a long time before we find out what season covid has an advantage - we'll also see how it "competes" with other respiratory viruses ('cos of people are catching the flu say and taking extra precautions, that will again postpone a covid wave)

Could be that over summer people knew more of their contacts so knew to take a pcr now with schools we arent being told of cases so not knowing to lft or pcr.

Re the waning immunity. Wales vaxxed earlier.

On testing we need to recognise that we have not seen a significant fall in tests at all and also that more tests are done than reported, lots of people don’t report a negative lateral flow. Also we haven’t significantly changed our testing regimen lately.

lateral flows were around from March so there is no reason to not think the pattern in cases re increase and decrease is true even if you think we are missing positive cases. Because we have always missed positive cases and there is no reason to think the percentage of those missed cases has changed.

I think if we believe case data on the way up we have to believe it in the way down unless we are seeing a big change in test numbers and we are not. I am very surprised there has been a fall but ultimately schools are not therefore the only driver in an increase (logical since cases didn’t start rising significantly when schools went back in March but after there was more social mixing in April and may).

Ultimately this is evidence that it is not a good idea to shut schools as your number one pandemic response which is good because it’s a very harmful measure (I am allowed to say that June our cmo and the who has said loss if education is damaging for kids, I think the days of school
Closures are over at least in the U.K.! Just need to work on the rest of the works!)

Ultimately this is evidence that it is not a good idea to shut schools as your number one pandemic response
I don't think it's quite so simple as this. For this particular virus that's true for younger children, because younger children seem to get a lower viral load on average than older, which seems to make them less unwell and less infectious. Ironically schools were closed at the time a great proportion of children could be infectious due to the original variant infecting fewer children; Alpha was successful by infecting more of the 14+ teens and Delta has appeared to spread just as efficiently with older children 9+ as with adults. Schools simply couldn't stay open last March though because too many teachers and families were isolating; regionally some schools had to close at other times in the pandemic for the same reasons. We also can't see into the future, the next successful variant might infect even younger children more efficiently and that would cause great difficulties with keeping primaries and nurseries open.

It does highlight the importance of checking which measures actually have an effect, and ensuring that extraordinarily harmful measures such as school closure are used as briefly as possible. Installing improved ventilation in all public spaces, including schools, would help in any future pandemic. The concept of the collective risk society takes and where to "spend" that risk is clearly still very poorly understood by many adults and the largest need (in the UK at least) is in helping the population to understand that as well as to agree on which type of risk are more important to society. I'm not sure I'll ever understand the number of threads with nonsense like "if my kids/I can go to a room of 30 then I can see my mum/ have my mates over/ have a sleepover for the child's birthday"; hopefully some epidemiology principles could be built into biology lessons in future to effectively train more of the population.

Sorry "Ironically schools were closed at the time a great proportion of children" should of course say the opposite "Ironically schools were closed at the time a LOWER proportion of children".

How many do report negative lateral flows? DS has Covid at the moment - I don’t think I remembered to log his positive LFT! He has a positive PCR now so in the system. The rest of us have negative PCRs but are LFT testing constantly and I am not reporting the negative ones it takes too long!
Our school has an outbreak and it is staying with the children I would say in 75% of cases. It’s DS year group and everyone is testing a lot. So far in the children it’s mainly been a two day cold although most seem to have symptoms.
I think most of the parents are double vaccinated now and after a turbulent 2 weeks cases are now slowing down

Also it started actually with 1 teacher but no others seem to have it. Mask rules etc came in fairly quickly when the outbreak occurred as did keeping teachers separate and those measures for now do seem to have contained it

How many do report negative lateral flows?

We have no idea, but still well under 20% of all tests distributed are reported, so unless they're not being used at all it's probably not a significant number.

The cases are all new individuals testing positive for the first time, could we be hitting the point where reinfections don't show up as cases but make up an increasing proportion of active infections? It's 18 months since the first wave, immunity must have dropped for most of those infected first, and they're more likely to be out mixing socially to have caught it in the first place.
Did we ever get any clarification on whether reinfections show up in the case numbers? I understand they didn't want to accidentally show lingering virus as a new case, but there should be a point where it's clearly not the original infection any more.

It was 0.4% "possible" in June, (and remember false positives will influence this even at the very low numbers) Given we would expect waning to follow a normal distribution, and as you say the earliest people to catch it the first time are likely going to be quickly re-infected, I don't think we could fit the data to that and come up with any huge number of cases?

Whilst we're unsure what the de-duplication is in the dashboard (they say first, but there's been some equivocation on that in this area) the steps required when a re-infection is suspected:
www.gov.uk/government/publications/covid-19-investigation-and-management-of-suspected-sars-cov-2-reinfections/investigation-and-management-of-suspected-sars-cov-2-reinfections-a-guide-for-clinicians-and-infection-specialists
Suggests the data would be available and acted on, so if it was a significant issue, we'd need "cover up" to not be being informed.

Rates in children are going up though, at least in my area (Greater Manchester)

Reinfections are reported weekly here and there have been very few. Note that proportional numbers should increase, because first wave had fewer confirmed infections. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
See page 17:
"To the end of week 34 in 2021 (to 29 August 2021) 45,119 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 259 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode to end August 2021"

Musing alert:

So 16-24 88% immune response, probably only to Alpha due to test limitation. However, this response will mostly still be to previous infection. This age group will have the most infection exposure for Alpha, but also now for Delta. This group also now getting vaccinated. All DD's friends off to uni double dosed, as well as the majority having had previous infections either in first and/or second waves. So..... assume immunity behaves like mitigation ie: any and all extra mitigations add a percentage immunity. The Swiss cheese effect of each mitigation each adding an extra level of protection, so in this age group, each level of infection and immunisation also adding an additional level of protection. So not herd immunity per se, but definitely endemic suppressive. I am sure brighter minds will be able to put numbers on it.

@MRex

Reinfections are reported weekly here and there have been very few. Note that proportional numbers should increase, because first wave had fewer confirmed infections. www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season See page 17: "To the end of week 34 in 2021 (to 29 August 2021) 45,119 possible reinfections have been identified, of which 259 have been confirmed by identification of genetically distinct specimens from each illness episode to end August 2021"

Re-infection obviously doesn't reflect exposure though, and as you noted, most infections in first wave not confirmed. So, as an example, DD based in London, had covid in March 2020, her whole office did. As indeed did all her friends, mostly medics. She went back to work when restrictions ended with commuting, possible further exposure, came home again second lockdown. Back to work again March this year, possible further exposure. Her flatmate confirmed covid last month, exposure. Now double dosed. Hopefully, her immunity will be both broad and lasting?

Has anyone manged to work out Scotland numbers yet?

Todays figures are 5529 for the last 24 hours but 5885 in the last 48. No one seems to know what is going on 🤣

Cases down and more importantly admissions are now down!

@Bordois

Has anyone manged to work out Scotland numbers yet?

Todays figures are 5529 for the last 24 hours but 5885 in the last 48. No one seems to know what is going on 🤣

I think it means that not all yesterday's cases have been reported yet. Public Health site states that the backlog might impact tomorrow's figues aswell. Probably best to wait a few days and see the numbers for the week.

@Bordois

Cases down and more importantly admissions are now down!

Although the cases drop is slowing again. Hope that it’s not going to bend again so soon 🤦🏼‍♀️

Something tells me that case numbers are going to be going down quite fast early next year:
www.theguardian.com/world/2021/sep/17/coronavirus-plans-to-end-free-rapid-tests-in-england-reckless

I can't see many people forking out for a lft

If I was going to pay for one I'd want it to be more accurate.

But currently the vast majority of positives are found by PCR testing, not by LFD, they really aren't finding many at all, (we don't really know how many tests are taken rather than thrown away) but we do know less than 600,000 positives from over 2 billion tests bought.

exact price of the test is tricky to find as I'm sure it's changed over the pandemic, but we know the first billion cost 3 quid a test, so we're at about 10,000 pounds a positive - cheap for saving a life! But catching a single case of covid doesn't save anything like a life, I'm pretty sure there are a lot more cost effective ways to spend that money.

(ventilators for schools!)