Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

He also says Covid-19 is approaching the "endemic equilibrium", the number of cases we should expect to see per day forever

How does this work then?

In normal endemic diseases where immunity wanes, it follows a pattern whereby people become re-infected as their immunity wanes and they meet the virus, hence you have a partially regular level of infections - not completely regular because environmental conditions and number of susceptible people changing the "meet the virus part", as well as mutations which increase susceptibility.

But with covid, we won't have that regular push of waning immunity because "everyone" has become infected or vaccinated in a short period of time, which means we'll get much larger waves as the immunity in these groups falls off, it won't meet a background level like others until much later in the process surely?

Did anyone see this preprint...
www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full
Could the C1.2 variant be responsible for the very rapid uptick in cases in Cornwall and Scotland? I know in Scotland it could just be the double whammy of back to school and relaxing restrictions more, but is that likely in Cornwall?

But with covid, we won't have that regular push of waning immunity because "everyone" has become infected or vaccinated in a short period of time, which means we'll get much larger waves as the immunity in these groups falls off, it won't meet a background level like others until much later in the process surely?

I think he believes that immunity wanes at a different pace in different people so the risk of large periodic waves will eventually be mitigated.

He also said that most pandemics "take about three years to settle" so we are not yet out of the woods (although the worst might be behind us).

at a different pace in different people so the risk of large periodic waves will eventually be mitigated

Oh yes, eventually, that's true, but it can't be true already unless the waning is of the order of months, but that does not work against 45k/day, and the quote was that we were approaching that point already.

placemaking ;)

Did anyone see this preprint...

According to the PHE epidemiologist who is responsible for reporting on VOC/VOIs, the Cornwall spread is still Delta:

twitter.com/kallmemeg/status/1432354337414598660

WHO are monitoring C1.2 but they have not yet identified any significant causes for concern:

twitter.com/mvankerkhove/status/1432403717018603529

@Cttontail

Did anyone see this preprint... www.medrxiv.org/content/10.1101/2021.08.20.21262342v1.full Could the C1.2 variant be responsible for the very rapid uptick in cases in Cornwall and Scotland? I know in Scotland it could just be the double whammy of back to school and relaxing restrictions more, but is that likely in Cornwall?

No I don't think this variant is responsible. Only 4 cases have been detected here according to outbreak info.

Also, Cornwall's cases are now dropping. It is exactly the same pattern we have seen with Euro 2020 - a large super spreading event leading to the sharp spike in cases which is then followed by a rapid decrease.

I am now waiting for the aftermath of the recent festivals (Reading, Leeds, etc). The impact will probably not be comparable to Boardmasters but there is a realistic possibility we will see cases spiking.

Scotland - I am still amazed that the nightlife re-opening happened so close to the start of the school year. Older siblings go clubbing for the first time in 18 months, younger siblings then go to school and infect their classmates. However, I think Scotland's cases might also be peaking - at least, the rate of the increase seems to be slowing down.

England’s cases have been steadily falling for a week now. I know it was a bank holiday weekend, but even so the data is encouraging.

Thanks @lonelyplanet I didn't know where to get that data. That's a relief!

That's great @wintertravel1980. Hopefully the peak is near in Scotland. Fingers crossed there isn't too much of a spike from festivals/Bank Holiday looseness.

I think Cornwall was also to with some rubbish weather a few weeks ago which sent everyone inside.

From the Zoe app it’s North Devon which is the problem area now.

today's spec date graphic for England.

Thanks @boys3 expected more of a bounce on day 1 'cos of the bank holiday.

breakdown of cases by region as reported today for yesterday - just first day of reporting therefore - as compared with the same reporting point last week. I'd caution against drawing any early conclusions.

then how this translates in the daily and seven day average for cases going back to mid July

from same starting point England hospital admissions, possibly starting to ease

Looks like Scotland may have peaked?
Zoe slightly down today for the first time in a while..

whereas numbers in hospital still increasing - albeit very slowly

deaths within 28 days, remembering that whilst relatively very low compared with the peak each one still impacts a set of family and friends, have again crept up but remain in double figures only - both in terms of any daily figure and for the seven day average. These are by date of occurrence, so the average cuts off a bit earlier.

finally a quick look at lateral flow numbers - again just England, and with the caveat that a lot of those taken don't get reported. One just covering the past six weeks or so, with the recent uptick likely associated with Leeds and Reading (as has fallen back a bit since). The other going back to the start of March. Expect school testing to soon start pushing the numbers up.

I'd like to think Scotland has peaked, but the test positivity is 14.9% today and the school population to work through. I am wondering when some school closures might occur. DD has had 2 lessons this week, where no teacher/cover has turned up.
There's also TRNSMT festival in 10 days time. There's no camping, but 50k attending each day. It's being held on Glasgow Green, right in the middle of Glasgow, which currently has a 7 day rate of 947.5 per 100k
It's also getting cooler, the days happily having window and door wide open are going.

I think many schools start testing todayor tomorrow so numbers will rise (tests and positives). Anecdotal but in my secondary we tested a majority of years 10-13 today and only detected one positive. Which can be seen as good or bad!

There's also TRNSMT festival

An apt name.

I’ve been looking up percentage positive of pcrs and I think this shows it’s currently just under 10%. This seems quite high to me, implying that cases are a lot higher than testing positive numbers suggest. Is this right or have I misunderstood the stats?

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