Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

I wonder what the impact of "we are all going to catch this", presumably even the most vulnerable groups who were formerly shielding, is going to have on deaths?

We are almost all vaccinated now, but a lot of us who were vulnerable have been very careful till now not to get infected.

One might think that this would skew the mortality figures a bit? if and when we do get infected.

I'm still really interested in the demographics of who gets severely ill and who doesn't recover.

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4356425-Positive-LFTs-but-negative-PCR-twice

There seem to be more and more reports of this. Has anyone seen any scientists addressing it, from any POV?

Just seen report describing the area in Welsh vallies of Neath Talbot/Merthyr/Rhonda Cynon Taf as the “new hotspot”, which reminded me of piggy’s comment yesterday that Corby has had record rates in the past, as those areas haves

It is not just areas that have had previously low rates that are spiking now.

That thread is v interesting @JanglyBeads I wonder if it really is a SW lab issue. I’m hoping so and not something that’s avoiding PCR detection.

I’ve seen people not from SW reporting it, certainly.

@JanglyBeads

Just seen report describing the area in Welsh vallies of Neath Talbot/Merthyr/Rhonda Cynon Taf as the “new hotspot”, which reminded me of piggy’s comment yesterday that Corby has had record rates in the past, as those areas haves

It is not just areas that have had previously low rates that are spiking now.

I agree. I've been watching Merthyr, they had very high rates in December/ January and are soaring again. However the previous spike would have been alpha. This means I guess that infections from early this year do not give immunity.

I agree. I've been watching Merthyr, they had very high rates in December/ January and are soaring again. However the previous spike would have been alpha. This means I guess that infections from early this year do not give immunity

The dashboard - which is where you're getting the "spike" from doesn't include known re-infections, so the actual people involved testing positive must be different. Doesn't rule anything out of course as we don't get all cases testing positive, but it does mean you can't say for certain it's re-infection either.

Are the age breakdowns similar - one of the things with "spikes" in previous high cases is that they were often specific to a place of work - factories, prisons etc. - and with the restrictions in place meant that they could be isolated between groups. So it is possible that large numbers of schools (say) avoided a previous spike but are not avoiding rises now.

Just looking at the latest age breakdowns for reported cases - this just for England.

10-14s are the stand out of course, latest 7 day rate (up to 22nd Sep) past 1300 per 100,000. More than double that of the next highest.

5-9s continue on a shallower upward trajectory.

The first signs of an upward shift for 15-19s becoming clearer; although the rate of increase someway removed from that seen previously.

More likely parent of school DCs age groups showing an upward drift - 35-39s , 40-44s and 45-49s; and to a lesser extent 50-54s.

All the rest pretty flat, or still decreasing. Includes the 20-24s, who now have the second lowest rate of any age band under 60.

for completeness the over 70s bands. sweet

@sirfredfredgeorge

I agree. I've been watching Merthyr, they had very high rates in December/ January and are soaring again. However the previous spike would have been alpha. This means I guess that infections from early this year do not give immunity

The dashboard - which is where you're getting the "spike" from doesn't include known re-infections, so the actual people involved testing positive must be different. Doesn't rule anything out of course as we don't get all cases testing positive, but it does mean you can't say for certain it's re-infection either.

Are the age breakdowns similar - one of the things with "spikes" in previous high cases is that they were often specific to a place of work - factories, prisons etc. - and with the restrictions in place meant that they could be isolated between groups. So it is possible that large numbers of schools (say) avoided a previous spike but are not avoiding rises now.

thank you that's really interesting

But the “spikes” in South Wales and Corby weren’t short lived, which I think is what you’re implying In those areas they had problems for months.

Obviously cases now are predominantly among school children - think I saw that 40% of cases in those Welsh areas are 12-18 year olds.

Here we are re Welsh schools:
www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-wales-58672264

Article from Feb about why these Welsh areas were being hardest hit:
www.walesonline.co.uk/news/wales-news/people-valleys-highest-covid-death-19776398

Jangly It was a question, not a statement of truth, however I do see deprivation and restrictions meaning that it can easily spread among older high risk individuals but not spread as much in schools. Deprivation leading to higher risk working patterns, but the restrictions keeping it from spreading among the younger age groups. So I can certainly see how it can happen without significant re-infection, also unless we see a massive jump in re-infection numbers in that report I can't see how it could so coincidentally be people who didn't test positive last time.

Boys thats us 14 yo has it now and I'm just waiting for the strike.

@QueenStromba and others who have detailed vaccine knowledge. Just questions of interest from me, but perhaps applicable in future to covid...

We all had our flu jabs today, little tyke too as they get the nasal one. I wondered:

1. How long is immunity to each strain expected to last? What I mean is does any immunity carry between years, e.g. A/Victoria/2570/2019 (H1N1)pdm-09 in this year; will that be long-term immunity from that particular strain and ones similar to it? Will I still likely be immune to swine flu from infection + vaccination (no other big risk factors, so normal probability yes/no)?
2. If there is any immunity remaining, does previous year coverage get taken into account by WHO in saying which strains to include, given that those who are previously immunised have certain protections but not others? How?
3. How much protection do the types give against similar strains, is it only based on how close they are in the phylogenic tree (apologies if that's the wrong descriptor) or are there other factors?
4. Influenza A was reported as being particularly dangerous in conjunction with covid last year and not B, why are there not 4 A strains, and instead split 2 A and 2 * B? Many thanks in advance.

twitter.com/profcolindavis/status/1441798279419752453?s=21
Colin Davis re teen rates. The example he graphs (which has to be seen to be believed!) is quite near to us. I have a teen with symptoms, just awaiting results!

www.healthline.com/health/flu-vaccine-effectiveness#effectiveness

Interestingly The Guardian website seems to no longer have their Covid stats on the front page. Is this a shift away from the focus being on # of cases?

I just came on here to see if anyone else had noticed this, toots. I find it convenient to just get a v quick check every day. I’d be a bit irritated if they stopped (and with no explanation that I can find).

I find why covid data suppression by the media extremely odd just as we head into winter. Next spring yes.. But why now?

The media/social media prioritises articles and news that get the most clicks.

People are getting tired of Covid and would much rather read about other things - from petrol crisis to celebrity news.

It’s not media suppression but if you want cases BBC is good

www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-51768274

It's not suppression? Why are people looking for some conspiracy that's not there.

Figures are in the news every day but unless anything 'dramatic' happens, they aren't really HEADLINE news.

I just google UK Covid Cases and its all on coronavirus.data.gov.uk/

Its not hard to find the source that the media gets it from. When that stops daily cases you might have a point.

I suspect it just wasnt getting the clicks anymore. Cases have remained in the 25-35 average range for 2 months now. I think unless something dramatic happens one way or another there is little appetite to find out