Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Perhaps theorised isn't the right word to use?

I don’t think it has been clearly established yet, but the data (particularly from Israel I think?) is pointing/ leaning in that direction :(. But there is still room for optimism / hope!

Andrew Pollard said protection still high - R4 this morning

And not the case that it’s waning yet

I can’t find an article quoting him though, maybe using wrong words

ONS for the week ending 03/09/21, for Scotland, 1 in 45 people infected, compared to 1 in 70 for England.
The Zoe figures for Edinburgh puts the June wave as larger than this one. I'm not convinced that's correct.
6815 positive tests reported for Scotland today. We may have peaked.
TRNSMT festival started today in Glasgow, which currently has a 7 day case rate of 1032.7 per 100k

Zoe can be a little susceptible to under-doing deprived community stats and over-doing middle class stats

The problem is that all the mechanisms that people promote for why different groups spread more, middle class should be the last to fall without restrictions, they are most protected (more likely vaccinated, more likely to work at home, more likely to have dinner parties not go to the pub etc. etc.)

So wouldn't it be even better here?

@sirfredfredgeorge

Zoe can be a little susceptible to under-doing deprived community stats and over-doing middle class stats

The problem is that all the mechanisms that people promote for why different groups spread more, middle class should be the last to fall without restrictions, they are most protected (more likely vaccinated, more likely to work at home, more likely to have dinner parties not go to the pub etc. etc.)

So wouldn't it be even better here?

Perhaps because there has been higher levels of protection for the middle classes, there is less acquired immunity, so the impact of opening up is greater in these groups? For example, lots of people who have been working at home have just started returning to the office.

@sirfredfredgeorge

Zoe can be a little susceptible to under-doing deprived community stats and over-doing middle class stats

The problem is that all the mechanisms that people promote for why different groups spread more, middle class should be the last to fall without restrictions, they are most protected (more likely vaccinated, more likely to work at home, more likely to have dinner parties not go to the pub etc. etc.)

So wouldn't it be even better here?

Middle classes have only just started ditching masks, from what I can see. Waited for disasters in wider population, saw no disasters, stopped. They are largely vaccinated but have a proportion who are less protected who will now get infected and largely get better, with a few unfortunated getting a longer illness. Flattened endemic curve. (Opinion not analysis)

*unfortunates NOT unfortunated, which isn't even a word...

Doubling time for deaths down to 28 days.

Put your money where your mouth is, Johnson.

Deaths do seem to have risen and I can’t understand why as cases have been relatively stable. Isn’t just the usual Tuesday catching up either. I prob need to look at actual death dates.

I work in the Big 4 and our offices are opening (in England) from 20th September. That will be a lot of people (potentially middle class, referring to pp’s post) getting back on the tube, trains etc for the first time in over a year.

Death rates would reflect case rates 3 or 4 weeks ago, probably (though I haven't got my head around the changes in case rates at all)

This is the deaths curve. It’s been a very shallow, gradual increase, similar to the trajectory of infections and hospitalisations.

I find these mirror graphs comparing this wave of infections, hospitalisations and deaths to the winter wave really interesting (and encouraging in terms of impact of vaccines).

twitter.com/rp131/status/1436366392408920086?s=21

That's very pretty but I can't work out what dates the previous wave is meant to correspond to on the x axis?

It's interesting that the case rates aren't greatly increased, though there is a slight increase since mid/ late August, but the proportions of different ages may have changed a little - enough to account for an increase in deaths?

@herecomesthsun

That's very pretty but I can't work out what dates the previous wave is meant to correspond to on the x axis?

24th October is the start date for the previous wave - it says at the bottom of the chart.

Deaths do seem to have risen and I can’t understand why as cases have been relatively stable

The case mixture changed, the mistake of just looking at cases that has been throughout, is magnified when the mix of cases changes, if you look at cases only in over 40's, you'll see the numbers have risen and deaths are following the historical cases in the vulnerable groups as far as I can see.

Are there any data regarding the length of time people are in hospital for now? Would it be fair to say that if it was a younger demographic being admitted, those that are seriously ill would stay in hospital longer than an elderly person?

I was just musing if the increase of people in ICU is not because more people are getting ill enough to need it, but because "turnover" is a lot slower than it was due to the age demographic of patients lowering?

@herecomesthsun

That's very pretty but I can't work out what dates the previous wave is meant to correspond to on the x axis?

There's a note on the bottom - 24th Oct - 17th Feb aligned by latest +ve tests total.

Crikey 29k cases today! Not what I was expecting at all.

Not got help, why?

Good? Bad?

@Autumngoldleaf much better than I was expecting - maybe I am negative Nancy / Nanny but I was worried it would be higher so I'm pleased with them being under 30k!

Yes, it looks great 😊

I don’t have a child in secondary, does anyone know if they have to test once they’re back e.g. every week? Or only just before going back?

Why so low today? Pleasant surprise.