Data, Stats and Daily Numbers started 30th August 2021

[boys3]

This is the DATA thread. We welcome factual, data driven and analytical contributions

Please try to keep discussion focused on these.

UK govt press conferences slides & data www.gov.uk/government/collections/slides-and-datasets-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conferences#history
PHE Variants of Concern Technical Briefings www.gov.uk/government/publications/investigation-of-novel-sars-cov-2-variant-variant-of-concern-20201201
PHE Vaccine efficacy www.gov.uk/government/publications/phe-monitoring-of-the-effectiveness-of-covid-19-vaccination
SAGE : Minutes and Models www.gov.uk/government/collections/scientific-evidence-supporting-the-government-response-to-coronavirus-covid-19
Data Dashboard coronavirus.data.gov.uk/ includes R estimates
PHE Weekly Flu & Covid Surveiilance Reports 2021-22 Season www.gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports-2021-to-2022-season
Dashboard Vaccine Map to MSOA level coronavirus.data.gov.uk/details/interactive-map/vaccinations
Covid 19 Genomics www.cogconsortium.uk/tools-analysis/public-data-analysis-2/
Sanger Genome Maps & Data covid19.sanger.ac.uk/lineages/raw
UCL Virus Watch ucl-virus-watch.net/
NHS Vaccination data www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-vaccinations/
Sewage www.gov.uk/government/publications/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-19-may-2021-emhp-programme/wastewater-testing-coverage-data-for-the-environmental-monitoring-for-health-protection-emhp-programme.
Sewage reports www.gov.uk/government/publications/monitoring-of-sars-cov-2-rna-in-england-wastewater-monthly-statistics-june-2021
Global vaccination data ourworldindata.org/covid-vaccinations
R estimates UK & English regions www.gov.uk/guidance/the-r-number-in-the-uk
Imperial UK weekly LAs, cases / 100k, table, map, hotspots statistics imperialcollegelondon.github.io/covid19local/#map
NHS England Hospital activity www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-hospital-activity/
NHS England Daily deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/
Cases Tracker England Local Government lginform.local.gov.uk/reports/view/lga-research/covid-19-case-tracker
ONS MSOA Map English deaths www.england.nhs.uk/statistics/statistical-work-areas/covid-19-daily-deaths/

Scot gov Daily data www.gov.scot/publications/coronavirus-covid-19-daily-data-for-scotland/
Scotland TravellingTabby LAs, care homes, hospitals, tests, t&t www.travellingtabby.com/scotland-coronavirus-tracker/
PH Wales LAs, cases, tests, deaths Dashboard public.tableau.com/profile/public.health.wales.health.protection#!/vizhome/RapidCOVID-19virology-Public/Headlinesummary
ICNRC Intensive Care National Audit & Research reports www.icnarc.org/Our-Audit/Audits/Cmp/Reports
NHS t&t England & UK testing Weekly stats www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
PHE Surveillance reports & LA Local Watchlist Maps by LSOA (from last summer) www.gov.uk/government/collections/nhs-test-and-trace-statistics-england-weekly-reports
ONS England infection surveillance report each Friday www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/bulletins/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveypilot/previousReleases
Datasets for ONS surveillance reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/datasets/coronaviruscovid19infectionsurveydata/2020
ONS Roundup deaths, infections & economic reports www.ons.gov.uk/peoplepopulationandcommunity/healthandsocialcare/conditionsanddiseases/articles/coronaviruscovid19roundup/2020-03-26
Zoe UK data covid.joinzoe.com/data#interactive-map
ECDC (European Centre for Disease Control rolling 14-day incidence EEA & UK www.ecdc.europa.eu/en/cases-2019-ncov-eueea

Worldometer UK page www.worldometers.info/coronavirus/country/uk/
Our World in Data GB test positivity etc, DIY country graphs ourworldindata.org/coronavirus/country/united-kingdom?country=~GBR
FT DIY graphs compare deaths, cases, raw / million pop ig.ft.com/coronavirus-chart/?areas=eur&areas=usa&areas=bra&areas=gbr&areas=cze&areas=hun&areasRegional=usny&areasRegional=usnj&areasRegional=usaz&areasRegional=usca&areasRegional=usnd&areasRegional=ussd&cumulative=0&logScale=0&per100K=1&startDate=2020-09-01&values=deaths

PHE local health data fingertips.phe.org.uk/profile/health-profiles
Alama Personal COVID risk assessment alama.org.uk/covid-19-medical-risk-assessment/
Local Mobility Reports for countries www.google.com/covid19/mobility/
UK Highstreet Tracker for cities & large towns Footfall, spend index, workers, visitors, economic recovery www.centreforcities.org/data/high-streets-recovery-tracker/

⏭ Our STUDIES Corner ⏮ www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/3869571-Studies-corner?msgid=99913434

Discussion and analysis are good. It gets frustrating when people get stuck on one topic for pages repeating the same points, but we've all made it through many phases of that before so I'm sure we can manage again.

Qualitative data is not, however, individual opinion nor analysis. It is narrative data collated from a broad group that can be observed but not evaluated. Collection of information from groups might include e.g. interviews, focus groups, case studies. It is often possible and useful to quantify the qualitative output e.g. percentage with overall positive or negative views. If you give your own opinion, it should be labelled as analysis if every point has data to back it up, or opinion if not. In my opinion .

There’s nothing wrong with a good narrative conclusion/description. Especially accompanying a graph, to clarify and explain.

Quantitative data: x number of people had blood concentrations of in excess of y nm/l associated toxins in their blood. Qualitative data: x number of people reported feeling unwell after being exposed to y.
There are always numbers to work with, it’s just that quantitative vs qualitative data may be telling us different things.

Two things maybe.

Firstly, as far as I can see, no one (including me) was suggesting that locking down again would be a good idea in itself?

Secondly, any discussion of data will be exactly that, a discussion, which could include the causes why the data is arising and the potential consequences. Those are acceptable topics in scientific papers and generally the data itself needs some discussion so we can understand what it means and why it's important. The discussion and conclusion are really important parts of scientific discourse, as well as the raw data and the method. (Sorry, I know that's a bit basic, as my DC might say).

We could just post tables of data. But it would be much less interesting! and less readable.

The intention in discussions on here is really not to upset people.

For all those talking about the relationship between data/ science/ opinions/ values/ society etc. I get it. I’m a researcher. I Spend my days collecting and analysing data and writing reports.

All I was trying to get at is that there are a zillion mumsnet threads debating the merits of various covid restrictions: masks, measures in schools, isolations, vaccines passports, lockdowns etc. These are highly politicised (and often quite toxic) debates. This is a thread about empirical data. Of course there is a cross over, but I was hoping that this would not be the place to bring in our personal views about covid restrictions / policy options at every opportunity and present them as “scientific facts” (e.g: “we need to do x,y,z to control infections etc”).

In any case, I regret raising the issue. As a pp said, there are no thread police. The best thing to do is to focus on the informative discussions about data and ignore comments that deviate from this.

Following on from that, this lead article in the Times refers to research on booster doses

epaper.thetimes.co.uk/the-times/20210910/textview

I haven't tracked down the original research but would be interested if anyone else has?

Clearly there is interesting scientific research here- it's interesting and valuable exactly because it has practical applications and ramifications for how we're going to manage the pandemic. I'd say it would be okay to mention that on here (but point taken about not going on for pages)

I just read a nice positive email from Tim Zoe study, I don’t usually read them but on this I hope his positivity is correct (not sure where he usually falls on things)

COVID cases in UK no longer climbing

In this week’s update, Tim talks about how COVID cases aren’t increasing despite the return of all UK schools and the bank holiday weekend of busy festivals. It’s still early days, so we’ll keep an eye on rates to see if there’s a delayed effect.

I just read some impressive data of the different vaccines effectiveness against death. Astra Zeneka coming out on top at 99.42%.
twitter.com/sailorrooscout/status/1436325238111879173

I'm posting the tweet rather than the studies because there are several links in there.

@borntobequiet

Quantitative data: x number of people had blood concentrations of in excess of y nm/l associated toxins in their blood. Qualitative data: x number of people reported feeling unwell after being exposed to y. There are always numbers to work with, it’s just that quantitative vs qualitative data may be telling us different things.

Sorry lovely born but that isn't quite right. Qualitative data includes things like longer answers to questionnaires but also observations (covert and overt), interviews and stuff like focus groups.

For example, during the pandemic (this is an example I give because I know it : not to start a a debate!) the situation in schools during the pandemic has never really been understood because too little evidence was sought from teachers - and vanishingly few interviews were done- about what conditions are like in schools (cf non opening windows/kids don't SD) . This has been derided as anecdata, whereas -actually - it is highly valuable qualitative data...this has led tp some generalisations from eg Jenni Harries based on no research whatsoever .

It's often rejected because by tis nature it doesn't always produce crunchable numbers , is subjective and takes longer to gather/interpret.

Anyhoo, moving on!

We used the term qualitative (or ‘qual’ because it’s too long 😂) at work - not science sector but still and yes it would include interviews and focus groups etc

Yup - qual and quants and mixed methods. Lots of emphasis on quants in university degrees in the social sciences atm. It's highly favoured.

I can’t hear Quant without thinking of The Big Short

Now that is a side track but such a funny scene

@Piggywaspushed nobody was objecting to the inclusion of qualitative data in the discussion. But qualitative data is more than an individual expressing their opinion about something.

Yes, indeed it is.

@wintertravel1980

The data we have suggests that without some additional measure there are likely to be more cases in winter.

I disagree. The data suggests that we are approaching endemic equilibrium. Even a few months ago super spreading events like Boardmasters or Aug Bank holiday weekend festivals would have triggered waves of infection across the country. Right now... nothing happens. Cases spike temporarily and go back down.

The two biggest risks I see are (i) waning immunity (hence the need for boosters) and (ii) new variants with higher degree of immune escape. However it is only my thoughts, not interpretation of data. Data actually looks pretty good.

I agree with this take. Also listening to Andrew Pollard this morning made me feel more positive on the two risks.

Really interesting thread, modelling potential impacts of waning immunity, vaccines for 12-15 year olds and boosters for diff age populations.

twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1436043734181896202?s=21

Tim Zoe tends to be positive and upbeat. He's had to backtrack a couple of times before.

I saw that James Ward thread, but couldn't understand why boosters caused a higher spike in hospitalisations and death in January/ February (frame 5)?

I can see that, with boosters. the situation is improved in November, but why would it then be worse 2 months later?

Funnily enough, Zoe for my area seems to show a sharp rise in cases, whereas the graphs on here and from the Council show slight decline.

@herecomesthsun

I saw that James Ward thread, but couldn't understand why boosters caused a higher spike in hospitalisations and death in January/ February (frame 5)?

I can see that, with boosters. the situation is improved in November, but why would it then be worse 2 months later?

I was unsure of that too. I think perhaps because boosters delay some infections which then concentrate/ spike more heavily in January?

[quote Bizawit]Really interesting thread, modelling potential impacts of waning immunity, vaccines for 12-15 year olds and boosters for diff age populations.

twitter.com/jamesward73/status/1436043734181896202?s=21[/quote]
It also concurs with @wintertravel1980’s interpretation of the current data, that without significant waning we would be looking at a relatively mild winter

@Piggywaspushed

Funnily enough, Zoe for my area seems to show a sharp rise in cases, whereas the graphs on here and from the Council show slight decline.

Middle class infection increase. Zoe can be a little susceptible to under-doing deprived community stats and over-doing middle class stats.

Oh, I can see that could happen.

Sorry lovely born but that isn't quite right.

Oh, I don’t disagree, I was just trying to give the simplest possible contrast I could think of. It’s the lack of precision of the dependent variable when data is gathered and the poor sampling methods that constitute the problem. Anyway, moving on…

I waning an actual "thing" now or is it still being theorised?