Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

Well I wasn't that far off from the 19th given that we're only one doubling time away from 100000.

My social life is gigs/meals/craft beer bars/cinema etc with DH. When people were going on about Zoom quizzes and virtual nights 'out' I was a bit envious! Our social life (and any social contact) was non existent last year and before N&J says 'so was everyone's', we didn't even have stuff like phone chat or Zoom drinks or emails or any of it.

I'm single and live alone. Most of my friends are associated with my work, but since my work involves travelling, I've barely seen them except via Zoom - which I find sad - for 17 months. I'm normally pretty self-sufficient and happy to spend time alone, but this year has been a struggle.

Not to mention the economic effects of having whole sectors of the economy shut indefinitely. But I guess so long as Waitrose keeps delivering, that's fine.

@TheKeatingFive

I’ve yet to see her address this completely inaccurate ‘prediction’ - if she has, I’ve missed it.

She has. It was the fault of the ‘noisy data’ apparently 🤣

She also said that it was a 'projection', not a prediction. But what the difference is, I do not know.

@NannyAndJohn there was 44k cases yesterday and it's the 22nd.

At some point, yes there might be 100k cases but your predictions were still wrong.

@IcedPurple prediction is based on data. Projection is Nanny projecting what she hopes will happen. Kind of like she's manifesting I guess.

Projections are mathematical estimates based on data, predictions are rash conclusions often influenced by anecdotes.

The figures produced by SAGE/Independent SAGE would come under "projections", the "we won't have a second wave", "we won't have a third wave", etc type stuff would come under "predictions".

@NannyAndJohn

Well I wasn't that far off from the 19th given that we're only one doubling time away from 100000.

Nope you were wrong (again). As I say to my children, just admit you were wrong and people will think more of you.

There again give enough dates (what is your new date then, given that as of yesterday doubling time was 20.5 days) and one day you may be right.

*looking at the government website and the weekly rates (England only I'll admit but daily numbers for UK as a whole bare out the same calculation). As of yesterday 7 day rate was 315456, half that is 157728. Looking back that number near enough corresponds to 30/6, it's now the 22nd, so current doubling time (in England) is 20-21 days.
**of course this may well change, at an time up or down,

Projections are mathematical estimates based on data

100k on June 21st was so off.

I don’t think it’s surprising people just don’t pay attention to the dodgy maths

I quite like maths posts too but they need to be insightful not just miles off

I wouldn't be so sure about anything.
I work in a NHS trust and our daily COVID numbers are tripling, we're having meetings daily urgent meetings as a result of the increase in numbers...

@NannyAndJohn

Projections are mathematical estimates based on data, predictions are rash conclusions often influenced by anecdotes.

The figures produced by SAGE/Independent SAGE would come under "projections", the "we won't have a second wave", "we won't have a third wave", etc type stuff would come under "predictions".

You just made up those 'definitions' now.

But it doesn't matter what you call it. You were wrong then and you are wrong now. And you think we don't see it!

@NannyAndJohn

Projections are mathematical estimates based on data, predictions are rash conclusions often influenced by anecdotes.

The figures produced by SAGE/Independent SAGE would come under "projections", the "we won't have a second wave", "we won't have a third wave", etc type stuff would come under "predictions".

So your view that there would be 100k cases by 21 June 19 July ONE DAY is a prediction, then, not a projection, given it is a rash conclusion?

Ditto your opinion that a museum visit was a 'breeding ground for long covid'. What data was that based on if it wasn't a rash conclusion influenced by anecdote?

As I say to my children, just admit you were wrong and people will think more of you

Also apologise for suggesting that people on MN are 'happy' that people are dying, and have said 'let the bodies pile up'.

@Pebbledashery

I wouldn't be so sure about anything. I work in a NHS trust and our daily COVID numbers are tripling, we're having meetings daily urgent meetings as a result of the increase in numbers...

The problem is at some point we just have to let it play out otherwise the NHS will just get more and more overwhelmed by the impact of restrictions and lockdowns. Making the nation poorer, less healthy without normal exposure to germs won't help the NHS or anyone. Avoiding Covid can't be the only outcome we strive for. It's very short term thinking to believe we're saving the NHS via restrictions

@TheVampiresWife

As I say to my children, just admit you were wrong and people will think more of you

Also apologise for suggesting that people on MN are 'happy' that people are dying, and have said 'let the bodies pile up'.

I was crystal clear that I was quoting Johnson when I said that.

@NannyAndJohn you said they're one of the "let it rip", "pile up the bodies" crowd trying to take the piss out of anyone concerned about the reopening - where is it 'crystal clear' you were quoting BJ? A few posts later you said 'well, that's what Boris Johnson said'. But nobody on MN ever has, much less a whole 'crowd'.

You really need to moderate the language you use. It's deeply offensive to those who have sacrificed so much and lost loved ones.

@NannyAndJohn

Well I wasn't that far off from the 19th given that we're only one doubling time away from 100000.

I think that using 'not that far off' is a new great accurate way of making decisions about things in the future so I would like to predict that 'I'm not that far off' from popping to the moon today for an ice lolly.

I'm not that far off having a million pounds in my savings account!

And how are you feeling about the iddy bitty dip we have at the end of this graph, or the fact that numbers are currently lower than they were this time last week??

@Whatever9999 - I am delighted. I’m hopeful this exit wave has now peaked. Fingers crossed.

Numbers are coming down pretty sharply where I am, and we've consistently had some of the highest rates in the country for weeks. It may be due to students going home (we've three universities nearby) and of course it may change in the coming days/weeks (we're a city famous for its nightlife), but it's still good to see.

I just read that week on week cases are down by almost 10,000 in comparison to last Thursday. Might be a spike soon after the nightclubs opened but still a positive.

Numbers coming down steeply in Scotland too.

1st July was the latest peak with 4,234 new cases.
7th July - 3,800 new cases.
14th July - 2,600 new cases
21st July - 1,686 new cases

Don't kid yourselves, the virus still has lots of people left to infect. It won't peak unless people change their behaviour to make it difficult for the virus to spread. With restriction just lifted on Monday, I'd say people aren't going to change their behaviour enough, just yet.

NannyandJohn will no doubt be along soon to put a downer on it though.

I'm referring to England.