Anyone want to predict when the next lockdown will be?

[MagicSummer]

I am guessing last week of August/beginning of September, and schools won't be going back when they are due to!

[quote RosaMoline]@NannyAndJohn -

You also insisted that you were ‘right’
when you said we’d have 100k
cases by 19th July.
I can’t take anything you say seriously I’m afraid, and your ‘dream scenario’
sounds utterly miserable.[/quote]
Nope, it was 100k cases by 21st June.

On 21st June there were just over 10k cases.

So you're happy with going in and out of lockdown, happy with millions getting Long Covid, happy with hundreds of thousands dying?

See, this is what you do. You accuse anyone who is realistic and understands that covid is endemic (globally, not just in the UK) and that however awful that is, life must go on, of being 'happy' that people will become ill and die. It's disgusting and deeply insensitive, particularly when so many people posting here have been personally affected by loss over the past 18 months.

Sometimes I think you're on a wind-up with the stuff you post, it's so silly. Sometimes though you post stuff that's so offensive I think you're actually just here to goad and upset people. Suggesting people might be happy that their loved ones have (or may in the future) die is one of the viler things you've said and there's some pretty stiff competition.

@NannyAndJohn

@TheVampiresWife I think some people find it difficult to face - sometimes in life, really bad things happen.

The pandemic is one of them - no one wanted this but it's happened and no matter what we do, lots of people have and still will, die.

There hasn't really been anything like it in our lifetime. Things like HIV, SARS, Ebola etc were sad but they weren't happening to 'us'. Facing the reality that this a forever thing that we have to live with is hard for some people.

/ I half think this Nanny loves drama, the tone and language she uses in unsettling.

@PinkSparklyPussyCat

As someone with very little family left in the UK what do you suggest I do in your 'dream scenario' *@NannyAndJohn*, never go anywhere or see anyone?

Were you this miserable pre covid?

I am so glad you said this, as I am in the same situation as you with virtually no family. All the talk of bubbles, seeing relatives etc is totally lost on me and has been for the last year or so. When people talk about shops and hospitality closures not mattering as they will still see family, it infuriates me as a lot of us would be stranded without other outlets.

I'm pretty sure they planned this exit wave for the summer because having it in the winter would be insane. Rolling lockdowns are completely unsustainable and in the end you can't fight nature. Countries are now seeing surges of viruses that are dangerous to children. We need to be exposed to disease. It saves lives. It's not about wanting people to die it's accepting all this messing around will have predictable and unpredictable consequences and they're already costing lives. We can't save the NHS from one disease without costing it in every other...mental health, cancer, heart disease and now other viruses. Lockdown is not a low cost or low risk option.

All the talk of bubbles, seeing relatives etc is totally lost on me and has been for the last year or so. When people talk about shops and hospitality closures not mattering as they will still see family, it infuriates me as a lot of us would be stranded without other outlets

I feel this, too. I've no friends and no family other than DH and DD. DH has no friends or family either. In one way the lockdowns affected us less than it did others as we had nobody to miss (it also brought that fact home sharply, which felt quite sad) but in other ways it was worse - all the stuff we usually do had gone (our 'outlets', as you say), and we've had nobody to chat to about things when it all gets a bit much and we don't want to burden each other.

@GiveMeNovocain

I'm pretty sure they planned this exit wave for the summer because having it in the winter would be insane. Rolling lockdowns are completely unsustainable and in the end you can't fight nature. Countries are now seeing surges of viruses that are dangerous to children. We need to be exposed to disease. It saves lives. It's not about wanting people to die it's accepting all this messing around will have predictable and unpredictable consequences and they're already costing lives. We can't save the NHS from one disease without costing it in every other...mental health, cancer, heart disease and now other viruses. Lockdown is not a low cost or low risk option.

Absolutely agree with this.

Great post GiveMeNovocain

If there is one I reckon it will be into winter. They want a peak in summer in the hope things level off as flu season starts.
If the nhs is under immense pressure again by autumn/winter then i guess there will.be some sort of restrictions put into place, not sure if it will be a full lockdown again but wouldn't rule it out...

@TheVampiresWife welcome to the ‘Ltd Family & Friends Club’ 🙂🙂

That's a very good point, guys - my Christmas is always in a very small bubble of 4 !! I only have a bit of family abroad. We enjoy holidays/concerts/meals out... which have all taken a big hit. My heart breaks for young adults whose university/first work experience has been utter crap.

The family I have locally are elderly and I've obviously been careful around them. None of my other family in the UK are local and we're not close - I'll hardly be rocking up on their doorstep for Christmas dinner!

I'll be giving my Uncle and his partner the choice of coming to us for Christmas regardless of what Boris and co say. If they choose not to come I won't try and persuade them but the offer will be there.

I don’t have any family due to various dramas, divorces and so on. Keeping my own counsel is the only way to stay sane.

I am so glad you said this, as I am in the same situation as you with virtually no family. All the talk of bubbles, seeing relatives etc is totally lost on me and has been for the last year or so. When people talk about shops and hospitality closures not mattering as they will still see family, it infuriates me as a lot of us would be stranded without other outlets.

A lot of MNers are very 'settled', with established family and friends, naice jobs that can be done at home, and little interest in the dreaded pubs or foreign holidays. For them, lockdown isn't a great hardship and is in some ways a benefit. They assume everyone is like them. They are wrong.

Btw Nanny et al... let's say Boris waves a magic wand and orders zero covid tomorrow - by even declaring a draconian lockdown lasting five years - what if the rest of the world does not do this too?

Zero covid has to be a worldwide accomplishment... Maybe mother nature might achieve this over many decades - but individual governments and populations? I'm sceptical.

for all in the 'Ltd Family & Friends' club

You're absolutely right, @IcedPurple. When I've mentioned on MN in the past that I have no family or friends I've had responses and on occasion been told I'm lying/trolling. Some people cannot accept that others' lives can be so different from their own.

Last year when masks were mandated for supermarkets I was told stay at home and get friends or family to do my shopping (I'm exempt). When I said I had neither I was told I simply wasn't accepting advice offered and making excuses because nobody has absolutely no friends.

My social life is gigs/meals/craft beer bars/cinema etc with DH. When people were going on about Zoom quizzes and virtual nights 'out' I was a bit envious! Our social life (and any social contact) was non existent last year and before N&J says 'so was everyone's', we didn't even have stuff like phone chat or Zoom drinks or emails or any of it.

glove punch, @TheVampiresWife . Some years ago I broached a babysitting circle at dd's playgroup. One of the women stared at me coldly and said, "Why don't you ask your parents?" "Well," reply I, "That would involve a seance...."

@DottyHarmer ha! Shouldn't laugh but that reminded of the time I was ill and couldn't walk DD to school when she was in primary. I called to tell them and they helpfully suggested I ask 'granny or grandad'. Given they'd both been dead for over a decade at that point it might've raised a few eyebrows at the school gates

We can't save the NHS from one disease without costing it in every other...mental health, cancer, heart disease and now other viruses. Lockdown is not a low cost or low risk option.

What do you think is going to happen to the cancer and heart patients if we carry on this wave as it is? We’re already having to cancel operations because we don’t have the beds and ICU capacity and that isn’t even the effect of the abandoning of any attempt to control the virus. The best way of keeping healthcare going is to keep cases under control as much as possible. The way we are going we’re going into winter in the worst possible situation.

Which is why the lockdown will almost certainly come before the end of August. Unless Boris is even more stupid and callous than we’ve already given him credit for.

I mean we could have taken the opportunity to catch up on the backlog but why waste time bothering with that when you can get rid of all mitigations and yell freedom instead.?

Which is why the lockdown will almost certainly come before the end of August. Unless Boris is even more stupid and callous than we’ve already given him credit for.

Good luck getting people to comply during the summer!

@TheGenealogist
I should have clarified that originally @NannyAndJohn stated that we’d have 100k cases by 21st June, and when that didn’t happen, she moved the goalposts to 19th July - and was firm in her belief that would be the dire situation. Now the 19th has passed, I’ve yet to see her address this completely inaccurate ‘prediction’ - if she has, I’ve missed it.
FWIW, I work in the Funeral Industry and I would not be happy to go back to Spring 2020 and the beginning of this year.

It is really difficult though, because lockdowns themselves also cause huge problems for the nhs.

The rise in respiratory viruses in children now is a direct result of lack of exposure in lockdown to build up immunity.

Flu strategy is screwed for this winter because immunity will be super low due to lack of exposure last year and it will be much harder to guess the variants for vaccination purposes.

So damned if they do, damned if they don’t really.

I’ve yet to see her address this completely inaccurate ‘prediction’ - if she has, I’ve missed it.

She has. It was the fault of the ‘noisy data’ apparently 🤣

@TheKeatingFive - what, again?!
That’s what she said about June too 🙄

Will the data ever not be ‘noisy’ I wonder?

And how will we know? 🤔