Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

@PatriciaHolm thank you

Thanks Patricia (BCF, missing you - if you look in at us).

PHE latest survey just published: gov.uk/government/statistics/national-flu-and-covid-19-surveillance-reports

The Cambridge Nowcast (end of last thread) is a bit surprising, I wonder why their figures are so much lower.

Thanks Patricia.

Thanks @PatriciaHolm

Apologies if it’s already been posted, but today’s update from the Imperial College’s REACT study looks to have plenty of data to unpick.

www.imperial.ac.uk/media/imperial-college/institute-of-global-health-innovation/REACT1_r6_interim_preprint.pdf

(Still a preprint, though.)

They suggest that cases may be dropping off in the North, but estimate that cases in the South East/East of England/London are rising, potentially with an R of 2. That seems very high - is there much agreement for that?

They also have a breakdown by employment, although it just break down to key worker/non key worker and public facing/non public facing.

I'm sure it's been pointed out before but the effect of the uni returns are very evident (and poignant) in this graph:

Thanks for taking up the reins patricia.

@Neurotrashwarrior asked on the last thread about use of home address. Data enrichment from NHS databases was the cause, but I don't think we've seen anything to confirm a final version of impact on case volumes in each area.
www.standard.co.uk/news/health/positive-student-coronavirus-tests-home-address-computer-glitch-a4568656.html

Thanks @PatriciaHolm, still missing @BigChocFrenzy especially now it's all been data focused for days anyway.

REACT data is interesting. 18-24 still higher positivity than any other age group, though others have all increased slightly.
Hopefully the screen grab of the relevant bit will post (tricky on a phone!)

I'm quite suspicious of R estimates based on infections data which is in itself extrapolated from a much smaller survey. In my experience these estimates seem to be all over the place, especially when estimating regional R numbers.

@IrenetheQuaint

I'm quite suspicious of R estimates based on infections data which is in itself extrapolated from a much smaller survey. In my experience these estimates seem to be all over the place, especially when estimating regional R numbers.

Indeed - I think the REACT survey does make this point, especially about the data from the south west. Data there is still sparse enough to make R unreliable, though growth is definitely happening.

Macron has just asked everyone to wear a mask if they're indoors with someone vulnerable, inc all over 70s.

Thank you for the thread.

Interestingly ds (age 13yo) has received "you need a flu jab" letter. He hasn't had any known health conditions other than glue ear, but he does tend to get lots of illnesses over winter, for which he's been investigated (and found nothing)
He's certainly never been told he would even qualify for a free flu jab before.

He's going to be delighted as his temperature always goes up after a jab so that's going to be a a few days off school at least.

@IrenetheQuaint

Yes, huge confidence intervals, eg between 0.89 and 3.79 for the South West, 1.47 and 4.87 for London!
pbs.twimg.com/media/ElehB2nW0AATi6v?format=jpg&name=900x900

@Augustbreeze

Macron has just asked everyone to wear a mask if they're indoors with someone vulnerable, inc all over 70s.

Even at home?

Hope mumsnetters in France are doing ok

R for the east could be odd.

There is another large a food factory outbreak and a large outbreak on one estate , with detected levels elsewhere levels are still low enough that these incidents may make things look off

OR

The incidents that have been detected as outbreaks are the tip of an undiagnosed rapid rise in cases

Thanks for the new thread

@midgebabe would you mind sharing details of the outbreaks in the East please? I live and work there.

My manners! thank you for the new thread, completely forgot to say that.

midge agree re the East. We’ve had v low numbers throughout, although Cambridge (and Peterborough too I think) both now qualify for tier 2 due to a sudden rise. Cambridge is most definitely students and the rise has been picked up thanks to the university’s thorough testing program.

Neither Cambridge nor Peterborough are actually going to enter tier 2 though, apparently due to the outbreaks being majority younger people/specific areas. That doesn’t feel safe to me as surely anything in the community will spread without mitigation

So the R could be down to the sudden influx of students, or could be an anomaly.

@NoGoodPunsLeft yes even close family:

go.mumsnet.com/?xs=1&id=470X1554755&url=actu.orange.fr/societe/videos/emmanuel-macron-demande-le-port-du-masque-systematique-lorsqu-on-se-trouve-a-l-interieur-en-presence-d-une-autre-personne-meme-un-proche-CNT000001utVjs.html

Today's data
23065 cases
280 deaths

@Motorina I think the Norfolk food factory outbreak is Watton, but it’s worth double checking!

Cranswick in watton is the latest food factory to have an outbreak, and moreton hall estate in bury st Edmunds

Re the uni returning effect. Surely once they all go back to uni after Christmas (presuming they semi isolate before going home as seems to be planned) we will have the same thing again in January?

Thank you both.

@Reastie that is part of what the governments of the four nations are working on at the moment, reportedly.