Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Presumably Boris has moved to a 5pm conference because he's doing deals with Rishi beforehand?

Whatever they announce I do hope they can announce the potential financial support at the same time, it causes so much stress otherwise.

LBC announcing it’s been further postponed from 5pm to later

21,915 cases
326 deaths

Cases lower?

Sitting here just waiting for this press conference. Clearly still arguing about something. I wonder what?

@Applesandpears23

Sitting here just waiting for this press conference. Clearly still arguing about something. I wonder what?

Nah-just watching the rugby....

Hopefully working out a financial package for those in hospitality and a way to actually make schools safer rather than just stating they're safe.

I think the press conference is being rushed out today simply due to the plans - I use the word in its loosest possible sense - being announced on the front page of several national papers this morning.

Suggestion I've seen is that the tech crew are refusing to film it until they get better terms. 😂

@boys3 that's exactly what's just been reported, yes. Boris has written to all backbenchers about it.

For England daily cases and 7 day moving average - the last recent few days of course yet to complete so the dip at the far right is artificial. Have used the 26th for the final 7 day average calculation - that stands at 18,484, and does look to have a slower trajectory over the few days leading into that.

Just watching

a way to actually make schools safer rather than just stating they're safe..... emits hollow laugh

@Piggywaspushed

It reminds me of The Hunting of the Snark
"What a place for a snark, there I have said it thrice
What I tell you three times is true"

They think if they say it often enough, they hope it becomes true.

@Piggywaspushed

a way to actually make schools safer rather than just stating they're safe..... emits hollow laugh

Yeah I have the same!

I've looked at PHE surveillance and keeping schools open and shutting things like leisure centres seems to make no sense looking at outbreaks reported.

Shopping centres and pubs etc I can see. It's much harder to control and keep track of people and it relies on people signing in and scanning the code etc.

However leisure centres, kids sport etc is all done carefully and the evidence in my county is that so far outbreaks in these settings is minimal .

Secondary schools has one of the highest and fastest transmission rates and I do think this is fuelled by the behaviour of teens in shopping centres, still having sleepovers, parties and probably school transport on top of the classroom situation.
So I'd like to know if they think it'll slow if they can all mixing outside school. I've heard in past hour teaching and uni unions are calling for online and rostered attendance on site.

Love that witchend!

Whilst we await Boris - or perhaps Rishi if a coup d'etat has taken place - graph showing week on week change, ratio (eg percentage increase / decrease) and absolute case number. England overall and I ought to do a couple of regional graphs if I get time. This takes the 7 days to 27th October specimen date as compared with 7 days to 20th October. 67 LAs saw a week on week decrease, everywhere else up to varying degrees

"The PM says: "I am optimistic that this will feel very different and better by the spring."

"He says this is because of the "immediate prospect" of rapid turnaround coronavirus tests.

"Over the next few days and weeks we plan a steady but massive expansion in the deployment of these quick turnaround tests," he says.

"They could be used to test "whole towns and even whole cities", says the PM, adding that the programme will "begin in a matter of days" and will be assisted by the military."

Anyone believe Boris over these tests?

Slides from the press conference: www.gov.uk/government/publications/slides-to-accompany-coronavirus-press-conference-31-october-2020

Does Boris not realise that he keeps moving his timeline and that lots of people watching will have done a big double take at the 'by the spring' line. And the rest will realise that every time he mentions a time frame it is always too optimistic??

Lots of gin stashes being emptied tonight.

I wish he would stop with his improving testing comments and actually look at improving the contact tracing.

An neu rep told me in July about these rapid tests being available for September.

🤨

So by spring we may have a few rapid tests....

Regarding a graph where Whitty pointed out that the NE was relatively flattened due to extra measures. (Which stopped when tiers came in, tier 2 loosened it.)

I've wondered why those measures weren't done elsewhere.

It was basically everything still open but you couldn't meet other households at all anywhere. (Technically you could outside but it was inadvisable; and not many realised that till recently.) try to wfh if possible and try not to use public transport.

Bars and pubs actually said they'd prefer a circuit breaker at the time as soon flew people were visiting. A few shut down. But at least they could stay open.

It was extremely depressing not to be able to see other people and still go to work (you could bubble with single people and family childcare was granted after an outcry) but we adapted and it seems to have had an impact.

So will there be less people catching Covid in 2 weeks? Will this actually work with schools and universities still open?

Depends if people comply I suppose.

Areas of the eu, notably Germany are also partially closing schools I believe. Not sure all the details.

Kate Bingham (chair of the UK's vaccine task) said she "expects all over-50s to have vaccine available by Easter".

I know she has said about the over 50s before, but interesting to have a date and also that she is sticking with the over 50s line. Part of this Sunday Times story:
mobile.twitter.com/Gabriel_Pogrund/status/1322646591010971649