Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Data peeps might be excited to hear that our weekly figures now show whether people live at home or are away from their usual residence. In my area the vast majority of 10 to 19 year olds are home dwelling.

Anyone local to Lincoln know why N and NE Lincs have gone to tier 2 but not Lincoln itself with 253 per 100k?

Luton has now gone to tier 2 (after the warning last week) from Saturday

m.luton.gov.uk/Page/Show/Healthandsocial_care/coronavirus/Pages/new-default.aspx?redirectToMobile=True

@Piggywaspushed

Luton is considered "the east" by the way for those discussing the eastern numbers

North Lincs' proximity to Yorkshire perhaps? And the city figures being due to students rather than general?

Towards the end of this thread are two very interesting Twitter commentaries on the el pais article posted upthread on aerosol transmission in various situations. The consensus seems to be that they're assuming Person 0 is a superspreader - which is perhaps reasonable considering we have no way of telling who these people are.

Sorry:

Really clear explanation to how Covid spreads in schools, restaurants and at home and the effect of different prevention measures www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4063911-Really-clear-explanation-to-how-Covid-spreads-in-schools-restaurants-and-at-home-and-the-effect-of-different-prevention-measures

Oxford also bumped up to T2

So it seems the testing capacity target of 500k per day by the end of the month might be met (by nefarious means)...

Derby going into Tier 2 on Saturday, just after neighbour Nottingham joins Tier 3. I'm right on the boarder between the two.

Don't think anyone has posted this yet this week :

assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930818/Weekly_Flu_and_COVID-19_report_w44_FINAL.PDF

These are the really interesting accompanying graphs:
assets.publishing.service.gov.uk/government/uploads/system/uploads/attachment_data/file/930819/Weekly_COVID-19_and_Influenza_Surveillance_Graphs_W44.pdf

The drop off in uni students is noticeable : I am guessing due to less mass testing.

From an educational point of view, I am very very worried by the rise and rise of cases in year 11.

@FATEdestiny

Derby going into Tier 2 on Saturday, just after neighbour Nottingham joins Tier 3. I'm right on the boarder between the two.

Me too! We're staying in tier 2 but doesn't make much difference at the moment because we're not going anywhere or seeing people outside in all the rain.

Yes, huge confidence intervals, eg between 0.89 and 3.79 for the South West, 1.47 and 4.87 for London

That must put huge doubt into the whole data, there has been no suggestion that the R0 of COVID is that high, let alone R with significant mitigation measures, 10-20% not susceptible due to having recently had it etc.

To believe that range, they need to at least have some sort of hypothesis about how it could happen.

.

Why do they start this chart on week 36 and then have weeks and weeks of blank data on the chart that hasn’t happened yet? Why don’t they start it from March?

Looks like Tees valley us going into tier 3 next week. Talks tomorrow.

BCF if you are reading this and have been posting on another forum can you PM me, I've really missed your posts and replies 😔

Sky News reporting that cases in Leeds Care homes are now higher than they were in the spring.

Very worrying rise in SEN schools transmissions. But zero SD, several adults to a class and no masks in primary certainly.

Many pupils attend sen schools in taxis. Transmission is supposed to be v high in cars.

I'm fairly sure parts of the NE will be tier 3 soon.

https://www.newcastle.gov.uk/citylife-news/council/north-east-leaders-update-regional-covid-rates?utmsource=Facebook&utmmmedium=social&utmcampaign=SocialSignIn&utmmcontent=Coronavirus

Looks like it Neuro after watching look North.

Thanks for the new thread

Here is some guidance which came out this week on school absences from the D of E, which makes for interesting reading.

They say that only 1 pupil out of 1000 has covid. Are they innumerate or just several months out of date?

As the REACT study preprint, if I remember correctly, had 1 in 75 people with covid, and I have seen it suggested that 1 in 37 people have covid in some areas. Also, children in secondary school have very much been part of the recent increase in cases, unfortunately.

Any thoughts on the data?

I discussed this with DH who is very mathematical. There is notionally only 1 pupil +ve with covid but there are 4 or 5 self-isolating with symptoms, 7 off because their school is shut because of covid, and up to 60 self-isolating because they are a contact of someone with covid.

So 1 positive case - and up to 72 possible cases, overall making 7-8% who just might be infected.

Interesting.

@Piggywaspushed - where did you find out number of cases away/ at home? I can't see that. Thanks

@HoldingTight - that's not correct, because the test capacity doesn't include pillar 3, from today's report on per pillar capacity coronavirus.data.gov.uk/testing:
Date 28-10-2020
Pillar 1 161,869
Pillar 2 297,200
Pillar 3 120,000
Pillar 4 9,543
Total 588,612
So the number reported didn't include 120k Pillar 3.
The figures from the labs may well be optimistic if they haven't trialled the new equipment and staff yet, there's even a chance they rely on dropping Pillar 3 testing to meet Pillar 2 demand, I'd want to see more evidence than a random person tweeting though.

My council does a report once a week and it was included on their bar charts MRex