Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

@Augustbreeze

Well the ONS figures might not look as bad as REACT's, but see the SAGE report written on 14 Oct but only released today (link in the article) - not good news at all:

www.bbc..uk/news/uk

Is this the link? www.bbc.co.uk/news/health-54750775

It's in my second post which quotes the BBC article including a working link at "dated 14 October"

[quote Frazzled2207]@ChristmasCantComeSoonEnough
Parliament is definitely in recess this week but given the pandemic I'd expect most ministers to be holding meetings etc as usual. But I suspect they will use the recess as an excuse for no press conferences this week. Some ministers have been doing the rounds with the media this week but nobody has seen Boris.

Numbers, although grim, at least don't show another major increase.
Am hopeful that the NW saw something of a peak on 19th October, since then numbers have been a bit lower.

Good (I think) news on testing. Capacity yesterday at 481k so they might get to 500 by the end of October! Tests processed nothing like that but the highest ever (I think) yesterday at 348k. You would really hope that the extra capacity would mean the possibility of speeding up the tests that they are doing.[/quote]
its a bit of a mixed picture numbers wise - although NE overall looks fairly flat (albeit with some ups and downs at specific LA level), and NW and Y&H maybe flattening. Upward regional trajectories elsewhere although positivity levels in East and South-East still relatively low, with South West just a bit higher again.

mobile.twitter.com/BNODesk/status/1322241504690274304

BNO Newsroom
@BNODesk
·
1 Std.
Belgium lockdown:

• All non-essential stores and some other businesses will close
• Bars and restaurants remain closed
• Working from home is mandatory, where possible
• People are still allowed to leave their home, but no visitors at home
• Measures will last at least 6 weeks

Bristol jumping up:

Positivity rate 14.7% (1 in 7 tests)
384.9 cases per 100 000
Test and trace reaching 45.6% of contacts

'Bristol is currently a Tier 1 area in the new national assessment system. This week we announced additional measures that we are taking within Tier 1 to reduce the rate of infection. The situation is extremely challenging and we anticipate that additional measures will be needed in the very near future.'

www.bristol.gov.uk/coronavirus/covid-19-data-cases-bristol-r-number-south-west

Does anyone know anything about the SARS-CoV-2 Recombinant Nanoparticle vaccine & trial? My Mam, who lives hundreds of miles away and has been really struggling, is so excited to be on the v trial so I'd just like to find out some techy stuff About it for her

novavax.com/our-unique-technology About Novavax

www.nejm.org/doi/full/10.1056/NE[JMoa2026920. Phase 1 & 2 trial results

Thanks

mobile.twitter.com/jburnmurdoch/status/1322257653414924288

JBM shows autumn surge in hospital admissions for Covid already looking higher than flu admissions for the last two years.

journals.sagepub.com/doi/full/10.1177/0141076820967906. Argues for properly integrated test and trace system. If we go into another lockdown and get the numbers down this needs to be a priority.

They can argue for whatever they want it'll make no difference. Everyone with half a brain cell could have predicted this shitshow that we are in the middle of. And some spoke up in mid-nov...indy sage and sage both. Nobody cared.
We'll have a half-arsed lockdown, then some propaganda that "boris saved xmas" or "he had to be the bad cop to save us all" bs... then comes xmas, ppl will be happily, merrily mix and match and by end of january will be in almost the same position we are now in. And everyone will be so shocked at How? Why?
Oh and don't forget, TTR will never be done properly, local agencies will be left out. But they will re-brand it, try to put a spin on it and shove it down ppls throats.

Oh and data won't be any more transparent then, than now. We will still be trying to figure out where students are being counted (uni town or home), etc....

Re students, I don't think that graph @boys3 has posted includes students with a Gp address elsewhere.

And interestingly we had a rule mid September were we couldn't mingle with any other household anywhere.

We can now under tier 2 but amongst my friends and acquaintances, no one is. I think it had a huge psychological impact.

Boys are those graphs MORI data?

https://www.theguardian.com/business/2020/oct/30/treasury-rejects-theory-eat-out-to-help-out-caused-rise-in-covid?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

@midgebabe
I’m on the novavax trial. We have our own thread about It!

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4048789-novavax-vaccine-trial-anyone-else

@Augustbreeze

Just a correction... Macron told us to wear masks when visiting / caring for vulnerable / older family members in their homes, not generally at home with your usual household.

One of the big problems in France is that the govt has not been able to prevent or restrict household mixing / visits, so things like birthday parties, Sunday lunches, family celebrations in private homes have continued throughout - including visits to elderly relatives. There has been a lot of public health messaging to encourage people to wear masks when getting together with family, especially during the current Toussaint holiday which is traditionally a time for families to get together.

As you were. Thank you for these threads, I try to keep up!

@NeurotrashWarrior cases from the standard dashboard data file, positivity (p2) from a different dashboard

Does anyone know of good comparative numbers across different first world countries that note the effects of varying measures to control the virus spread?

@Yummyoldbag, indie sage did a comparison yesterday looking at other countries and the affect of their measures. 13 minutes in:

Thank you.

Boris, Whitty and Vallance presser at 4pm today.

@NeurotrashWarrior - interesting with that study, the economist used rainfall as an influence on eating out and hence infections. But we know from recent studies @BigChocFrenzy posted that humidity itself is critical in reducing infections. So from what I can see his analysis actually had a seriously fundamental flaw. I don't think I've noticed anyone else mention that though. Maybe economists don't talk with epidemiologists.

Expert reaction to media reports that Government will announce a move back into lockdown.
www.sciencemediacentre.org/expert-reaction-to-media-reports-that-government-will-announce-a-move-back-into-lockdown/

Maybe economists don't talk with epidemiologists. Sadly, I think this is true. I also think many expert professors who opine on various medical issues - often publicly- don't talk to each other. hence you get actually rather contradictory statements coming form doctors , depending on their specialism. And don't get me started on medical doctors opining on pedagogy!

@MRex I don't know what to think about that analysis; human behaviour can certainly be governed by the weather so it's likely in the cases of restaurant transmission to be a bit of both?

I suppose an economist would argue the boost to the economy was worth it at the time.

Going forward into winter we may have more humidity but we also have colder temperatures too. I also remember info on air pollution having an impact on virus rates too.