Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Well schools have been back for 2 weeks or so now. Just saying.

I'm not surprised, but I don't think it's just Liverpool.

Cases are rocketing in the NE; I must know 8 people personally who've tested positive in the last couple of days, whereas I knew of 4 from sept to half term. Anecdata but it's definitely moved into communities rather than university and the 20's.

@NeurotrashWarrior

30,843 on dashboard

That's England only.

Ha yes thanks

33470
595 deaths

Looks like they found some down the back of the sofa- Nov 2nd still looking like the peak by specimen date

@HoldingTight 5K in the North West which makes me think possibly the Liverpool figures are starting to kick in.
I don't know the Merseyside area well but looking under "Liverpool" for the LA level gives 281 cases.

There seems to have been a fairly hefty dump of data on the 9th, which is interesting, cos there was one in 2nd as well and then it dropped back again. It's almost as if one of the data collectors only works part time....

Could that 33k be due to a spike of people contracting it on the last night all the pubs were open before lockdown? I think there was a spike of people going out, or seeing greetings friends and family on the last night it was allowed. Looks like the days with the high numbers will be samples taken on the 9 and 10th November, which is 5-6 days after the 4th, which was the last day before lockdown. Average incubation period = 5 days.

It was 595 deaths yesterday, struggling to believe today’s figure is identical.

And Hull seems to be the new Liverpool.

@Stircrazyschoolmum

It was 595 deaths yesterday, struggling to believe today’s figure is identical.

It says there is a delay on the deaths

Probably Fire. And fireworks night. I stupidly drove ds around to watch some on the 4th but we mostly saw antisocial behaviour and a lot of people in crowds

Big jump in testing though - the Liverpool effect

All the extra tests, and extra cases are in England, and there's no further regional breakdown for another few days, so we don't have enough information to say.

If it is Liverpool, and in fact even without, the releasing of such data without any commentary is disgusting. Fundamental changes in the nature of collection of data needs to be reported, this is either a very alarming adjustment - with a massive increase in R a few days ago, or some change in collection methodology that needs highlighting and the impact suggested.

I imagine though it's just going to be used for more alarming headlines designed to cause fear and worry and drive website clicks.

@Stircrazyschoolmum

It was 595 deaths yesterday, struggling to believe today’s figure is identical.

Apparently they're having a problem with today's deaths figure and it will be "updated as soon as possible".

Re the deaths, that's funny, the NHS data collection seems to be working just fine - 317 deaths plus 14 where Covid was mentioned on the death certificate.
So the lag seems to be in the data being collated centrally.
And in other news, the Pope's got a funny hat.

Yes everyone near us clearly brought forward their firework plans to the 4th. I just saw the fireworks, but quite possibly they were accompanied by parties

Could that 33k be due to a spike of people contracting it on the last night all the pubs were open before lockdown?

No, not really, since that would require higher number of transmissions than the previous days in those environments, the same environments were open for the few days before and every single indication was that cases were plateauing. There'd be no reason for suddenly everyone infecting almost 60% more people, and nothing that would explain why the same thing hadn't happened in Wales or Scotland the day before their lockdowns.

Huge increase in cases reported in London today I think - 3929, they seem to have been below 2000 the last few days

Deaths data hasn't be updated yet, though England hospitals number is 317.

Quite a jump in cases, but not quite so much when you look at it by specimen date. It looks as if Monday 9th might eclipse Monday 2th (specimen date) over the next couple of days though.

Rolling 7 day average by specimen date (to the 8th) is up 8% week on week.

@sirfred Pubs being open doesn't itself drive transmission. It's the number of people in the pubs that matters. I think that the pubs were much busier than usual on the last night before lockdown. I know DD's friends (sixth formers) were all heading out for a last night of socialising before being locked down again. We took the opportunity to have DS round for dinner, and I know from Facebook that many of my friends were doing similarly. If twice as many people as normal were seeing friends or family on that last night that it was allowed, you'd expect it to lead to a sharp spike in Covid about 5-6 days later.

Not Liverpool, 281 cases added there. Just skimming through some of the bigger numbers

Brum 791

Bradford 514

Bristol 387

The two Cheshire LAs 416

County Durham 364

Dudley 419

Hull 426

Kirklees 485

Leeds 680

Leicester 445

Manchester 443

Oldham 308

Sandwell 308

Sheffield 337

Stoke 302

Sunderland 271

Wakefield 294

Wigan 321

Some relatively big numbers for some of the London boroughs

Barnet 176

Brent 172

Ealing 189

Hillingdon 155

Then some of the shire counties have some big numbers

Leicestershire 603

Lincolnshire 593

Nottinghamshire 502

Staffordshire 798

No obvious lag in specimen dates for England

838 yesterday

14765 dated 10th November

11685 9th

So that’s over 27000 straight off

Age profile of these cases will be interesting to see - people catching up after half term????

@PatriciaHolm

Deaths data hasn't be updated yet, though England hospitals number is 317.

Quite a jump in cases, but not quite so much when you look at it by specimen date. It looks as if Monday 9th might eclipse Monday 2th (specimen date) over the next couple of days though.

Rolling 7 day average by specimen date (to the 8th) is up 8% week on week.

Mon 9th does look bigger than Mon 2nd (unless reporting lag has reduced) but Tue 10th looks even bigger.

Catching up on getting a test that is

Actually, no - Mon 9th does not look bigger than Mon 2nd (whoops!) but Tue 10th does.

Cases do seem to be exploding here in Stoke. Half are positive/isolating in our local Royal Mail depot. Our poor postie is run ragged. Year 11 completely off at my dd's school.

Our local leisure centre is offering lateral flow tests as a one day community trial tomorrow.

Staying in as much as possible really.

Pubs being open doesn't itself drive transmission. It's the number of people in the pubs that matters. I think that the pubs were much busier than usual on the last night before lockdown

I was astonished at how empty the pubs around me were on the day before lockdown, I walked past more than a dozen and almost all were empty - of course I was in a Tier 2 area so you were only in them as household units, but still - but that restriction itself would mean that your hypothesis was only covering less than half the country, most of it in areas with relatively few cases, I still struggle to come up with a scenario where a single day could drive so many extra cases given the restrictions in place.