Data and Analysis Thread, started Oct 29

[PatriciaHolm]

With a link to the previous header for all the great links to data -

www.mumsnet.com/Talk/coronavirus/4057030-Pure-data-thread-1-Daily-numbers-graphs-focused-analyses?

And with a polite plea to keep the focus on data and analysis if you please.

thanks all

Positives up by 5.8% over past 7 days

Tests up by 12.4% over past 7 days

@boys3 can you explain those numbers, are they cases per 100k and from which dates. Also why is there only one figure for the two Cheshire boroughs, is that a total or average?

Just skimming through some of the bigger numbers

But that comes to less than a 1/3rd of the numbers, normally the "bigger" areas cover considerably more than that?

Are cases rising in the SE? Specifically East Surrey and West Kent? Anecdotally it really feels like it at the moment.

Tim Spector on Zoe App is saying R is now below 1 and cases dropping in lots of places. I think today's figure must be a bit of an anomaly.
I was very surprised to see from around 42,000 asymptomatic tests in Liverpool only 249 positives. I expected that to be far higher.

Tim Spector on Zoe App is saying R is now below 1 and cases dropping in lots of places. I think today's figure must be a bit of an anomaly

Fingers crossed.

I have noticed other countries figures can swing quite wide but I don’t know enough about their testing set up to really pass any meaningful
Comment.

@RedRedRobinBobbin it is simply the increase in the reported case total today with that reported yesterday so the absolute case number.

For example the cumulative total for Cheshire west and Chester (sorry too lazy to type it out earlier) was 7270 yesterday and 7498 today, indicating a further 228 cases added. Cheshire East was 7458 and now 7646 so 188 added.

Obviously for each LA the cases added today will cover a number of actual specimen dates.

@sirfredfredgeorge just a skim and fairly random selection I will look at the distribution in a bit

Not dots...

Surrey are going up and down, all my local towns and areas have had, each in turn, days of going up and days of going down, no idea why. They seem to take it in turns, one area goes down, the one next to it goes up. East Surrey may include Epsom and St Helier hospital who had a spike of internally acquired cases recently.

@Firefliess

Yes everyone near us clearly brought forward their firework plans to the 4th. I just saw the fireworks, but quite possibly they were accompanied by parties

There were 3 days worth here, with a few on sat night too.

@sirfredfredgeorge today’s distribution profile is different. I’ve not looked at this for a while the last time was probably a good four weeks or more ago - Nottingham added 757 cases that day if that jolts any memories.

Anyway that previous one required 33 councils to get to 50% of cases added. Today it’s 58 councils.

Using that same comparison 117 councils needed to get to 80% of cases; today 152 councils.

And finally the lowest 50 councils accounted for 2.1% of cases added; today the lowest 50 accounted for 3.4%

Fascinating piece in the guardian about circadian rhythms and immune systems.

https://www.theguardian.com/science/2020/nov/12/seasonal-rhythms-within-immune-systems-may-explain-infection-rates-study?CMP=ShareiOSAppp_Other

Do people at the equator not really have a "flu" season?

@sirfredfredgeorge and a comparison with this time last week. On 5th nov 47 councils accounted for 50% reported cases added that day; 137 to get to 80%; and the lowest 50 had 2.5%.

@Arcadia

Tim Spector on Zoe App is saying R is now below 1 and cases dropping in lots of places. I think today's figure must be a bit of an anomaly. I was very surprised to see from around 42,000 asymptomatic tests in Liverpool only 249 positives. I expected that to be far higher.

I can on to ask about Liverpool figures (sorry if this has been covered) I follow them every day and they're dropping steadily. However, in the last 3 days, the actual numbers seem to still be dropping (despite the increased testing) but the rathe per 100, 000 is rising..... why would this be? If the cases are still going down? Any ideas?

@ChristmasinJune

the Zoe app tracks symptomatic cases as it relies on people logging their symptoms.
The mass testing in Liverpool will have picked up asymptomatic cases

Christmas - which figures are you looking at? My covid messenger emails for Liverpool show declining numbers and rates per 100k

@Arcadia

Tim Spector on Zoe App is saying R is now below 1 and cases dropping in lots of places. I think today's figure must be a bit of an anomaly. I was very surprised to see from around 42,000 asymptomatic tests in Liverpool only 249 positives. I expected that to be far higher.

That is 0.6% . I'd be interested to know more about the figures and the process. It works out as 1 in 168ish, There presumably also are some symptomatic people as well, that might put the figures up a bit? It would be interesting to know the eventual proportion of symptomatic to asymptomatic.

@boys3. Your data shows clearly that a lot of the rise in cases is coming from the places that were previously low - ie tier 1 places where pubs were open to all until last week, and people were generally not too scared about Covid as they don't know many people with it.

Thanks @boys3 so higher cases and higher tests and all from a wider range of places than previously, I wonder what the trigger was, it could well be what @Firefliess said about the pubs on the day before lockdown, but I still think that's rather unlikely - people who were happy going to pubs had been going throughout the previous weeks shortly, why the jump? I can't really imagine them suddenly getting overcrowded?

Thank you. I looked on the news to see if the Liverpool numbers were attributing to the leap but couldn’t find any info. You are as ever super informative. What’s happened to bigchocfrenzy? Is she ok? Or just taking W break.

Are universities doing their weekly testing on a Monday?

I wonder how much is the impact of general increases in testing on currently asymptomatic people; REACT and ONS as well as the universities and mass testing.

Anecdata - I keep reading about more new testing sites, they're springing up everywhere. Easier availability and news of results coming in faster might be making a difference to "should I / shouldn't I test these symptoms". Each piece might be adding a little, but should then be reducing positivity. Off to see the surveillance report!